Big names genuinely at risk in GE?

odlum

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Can anyone give a precise enough list of the big names particularly on the FF side who are genuiney likely to lose their seats? I would hope all of them would but there is an imbecile element of 18% of voters still left in this country obviously blissfully unaware of the fact the country is destroyed. I have run out of phrases to express my anger like everyone else and will leave the punishment to be swift and severe at the General Election.
 


d7bohs

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It would be easier to list the safe ones. Off the top of my head, Brian Cowen, Willie O'Dea, Brian Lenihan (if he runs, and even then not 100%), Mary Coughlin...... I'm sure there's maybe 10 more and after that, it's squeaky bums. There's hardly a safe FF seat in Dublin for a start.
 

Aindriu

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I genuinely hope that the likes of Cowen, Hanafin, O'Cuiv, Coughlan, Harney and Lenahan are destroyed in the election.

Sadly, there are still too many sheeple out there who think the sun still shines out of their ar$es.
 

locke

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Cabinet members

Batt O'Keeffe
Tony Killeen
Pat Carey
John Gormley
Eamon Ryan

I'm not convinced Lenihan is safe either. I assume Harney won't run.

Otherwise, on the FG front-bench, I could see Simon Coveney at risk to losing his seat to someone inside his own party.
 

Glucose

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O'Cuiv is safe because he is the only credible candidate in Connemara and Gaeltacht area. Galway west is really a 4 seat constituency and not a 5 seat becuuse of this. The rest of the candidates battle for the city votes.

Bar Brian Cowen he is probably the safest FF seat.
 

d7bohs

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Cabinet members

Batt O'Keeffe
Tony Killeen
Pat Carey
John Gormley
Eamon Ryan

I'm not convinced Lenihan is safe either. I assume Harney won't run.

Otherwise, on the FG front-bench, I could see Simon Coveney at risk to losing his seat to someone inside his own party.
Only one of Hanafin/ Barry Andrews can make it and its not beyond the bounds that both will fail.
 
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johnfás

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Only one of Hanifin/ Barry Andrews can make it and its not beyond the bounds that both will fail.
I agree.

The best way for Hanafin to secure her seat would of course be to run for the leadership.
 

smitchy2

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All Dublin FF TDs are surely under pressure.
Hopefully Hanafin and Lenihan. Although, Lenny will get through with the courageous C factor despite his terrible performance as a Minister of Finance.

It would be fantastic to see Ahern and Dempsey get the chop as well.

However, the FF voting machine will pull the election performance up by about 4-5% over the polls which will be enough for some of the big names to get through. Won’t be much consolation for the party if they are below 40 seats though.
 

civilserpant

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Cowen - safe
Coughlan - safe - she'll hold the Ff seat unless The Cope runs.
Brian Lenihan - safe. Higgins take the new seat.
Martin - at risk, but (horrible and crass as it is to say) the death of his daughter will engender a lot of sympathy.
Hanafin - Severe risk - its defo her or Andrews... Andrews family has strong local ties.
Dermot Ahern - safe
Noel Dempsey - prob safe. Should be ahead of Johnny Brady.
Brendan Smith - safe - the other non-entity FF to go.
Tony Killeen - gone - Dooley to pip him in holding 1 FF seat.
Batt O'Keeffe - gone if Moynihan has done his groundwork.
Pat Carey - Severe risk 50/50 him or Noel Ahern to go.
Dick Roche - safe-ish. Behan going native gives him the FF machine.

Eamon Ryan - Severe Risk
John Gormley - Severe Risk

Notable FF:
Dara Colleary - at big risk. If Bev is ahead and Jerry Crwley does well....
John Curran - risky, but Harney & Gogarty should see Chief Whip safe...
John McGuinness - safe - FF will lose 1 seat, maybe 2.. but he'll be ok.
Ned O'Keeffe - 50/50 between him and Michael Ahern to go.
Noel O'Flynn - gone
Michael Finneran - safe
Jim McDaid - 50/50, please god let him go before Blaney
Sean Haughey - should hang on.
Michael Woods - big risk (if he's running?)
Chris Andrews - big risk, but probably hang on with no McDowell and Gormely taking the heat.
Conor Lenihan - 50/50 him or O'Connor. I think Lenihan will go.
Frank Fahy - Gone. goodbye, cheerio.
Marie Hoctor - mild risk depending on Lowry & O'Meara performances.
Martin Manseragh - gone.
 

RahenyFG

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If Harney runs she'll lose her seat. She probably won't run. More than 10 years years of terrible ministerial experience means she'll have a more than decent ministerial pension.
 

FreshStart

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Firstly, I'm not sure Mary Coughlan is safe. I see SF, FG doing well up there. I could actually see Brian Lenihan going. I don't know why. Conor Lenihan as good as gone.

What about independents? They're propping up government too - Healy Rae (and one of his godawful offspring, Lowry etc)

As for Greens, I can only see Trevor Sargant (and even then its weak) pulling through.
 

drjimryan2

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DSW......sad,wrong,illogical but true.......

Conor Lenihan will fall to the dsw 'curse of polltoppers'....third one in a row....

and what of the 'independent' run rumours?.......

1fg, 1ind, 2 lab?
 


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