Bloomberg: Fossil Fuels Just Lost the Race Against Renewables

owedtojoy

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Renewables ‘have won the race’ against coal and are starting to beat natural gas

“Solar PV and onshore wind have won the race to be the cheapest sources” of bulk or primary power generation in most countries, explained a BNEF energy analyst.
The investment bank Credit Suisse emphasized the same trend in a report released last December. “Utility scale solar plus storage is already cheaper than gas peaker plants,” they reported at the time.
Peaking power plants, also known as peaker plants, and occasionally just "peakers", are power plants that generally run only when there is a high demand, known as peak demand, for electricity. They might be used in tandem with wind energy if the wind was low and demand high. Now massive battery storage is rendering them obsolete.

“Staggering”: Progress in Batteries, Wind, Solar Threatens Gas
 


riven

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Except that when you read the report, these are only cheaper than gas in some niche cases, and on the LCOE basis. This does not cost the need for integration and an LCOE for a battery is somewhat a misnomer, as it does not produce power.

And one has to wonder why if solar and storage is cheaper, are we seeing record amounts of gas capacity going up? It is incredibly amusing to see these silly projections when we know that the total amount of batteries deployed is tiny. America, using all its current batteries, has enough storage for 5 minutes of utility power, if it were all available.

Batteries co-located with solar or wind projects are starting to compete, in many markets and without subsidy, with coal- and gas-fired generation for the provision of ‘dispatchable power’ that can be delivered whenever the grid needs it (as opposed to only when the wind is blowing, or the sun is shining).
Actually they are not. The largest battery project is competing on frequency control and arbitrage aka network services, and not dispatchable power. It is staggering to see such a lie printed.

The only places that can be conceivably said to be true storage projects versus dispatchable power sources are El Hierro etc. And these have been abject failures in terms of delivery and cost.
 

owedtojoy

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Except that when you read the report, these are only cheaper than gas in some niche cases, and on the LCOE basis. This does not cost the need for integration and an LCOE for a battery is somewhat a misnomer, as it does not produce power.

And one has to wonder why if solar and storage is cheaper, are we seeing record amounts of gas capacity going up? It is incredibly amusing to see these silly projections when we know that the total amount of batteries deployed is tiny. America, using all its current batteries, has enough storage for 5 minutes of utility power, if it were all available.



Actually they are not. The largest battery project is competing on frequency control and arbitrage aka network services, and not dispatchable power. It is staggering to see such a lie printed.

The only places that can be conceivably said to be true storage projects versus dispatchable power sources are El Hierro etc. And these have been abject failures in terms of delivery and cost.
These are just assertions by you. Have you any evidence?

If you claim something is a lie, then show it is a lie.
 

owedtojoy

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According to the consultancy Lazard, the all-in, “levelized cost of energy” (LCOE) from some renewables is already lower than the LCOE of a lot of fossil fuels in many cases, even without subsidies and without environmental benefits factored in. Wind is the cheapest energy of all, and utility-scale solar is competitive with the cheapest natural gas.
Clean energy is catching up to natural gas

We know that clean energy resources, in all their varied glory, can do all the things natural gas power plants can do. We know that the cost of natural gas power is tethered to the price of natural gas and has little room to fall, while the cost of clean energy is tethered only to technology, which has gotten and is continuing to get cheaper and cheaper.

And we know that clean energy has defied all our forecasts, maturing and falling in cost faster than even the most optimistic advocates predicted. We should have some confidence that will continue.
I have been reading pessimistic and downright Luddite posts on this site for going on an a decade, yet none of them have come to pass. While renewable energy is still small worldwide, it is still growing and taking up a fair share of new installations every year. In 1993, market penetration of mobile phones in the US was 6%, in 2013 it was 96%. It takes about 20 years for technology revolutions to happen.
 

Turbinator

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Clean energy is catching up to natural gas



I have been reading pessimistic and downright Luddite posts on this site for going on an a decade, yet none of them have come to pass. While renewable energy is still small worldwide, it is still growing and taking up a fair share of new installations every year. In 1993, market penetration of mobile phones in the US was 6%, in 2013 it was 96%. It takes about 20 years for technology revolutions to happen.
Ironic stuff from a hysterical alarmist who seems to beleive bad weather only came along recently. As for wind/solar being cheaper than fossil - LOL!!

 

owedtojoy

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Analysis: UK government slashes outlook for new gas power plants | Carbon Brief

The UK will only need to build a small number of new gas power plants over the next two decades, as it continues to shift to low-carbon sources of electricity.

This is according to new energy and emissions projections published by the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), which see renewables overtaking gas by 2020 to become the UK’s number one source of electricity generation.

The projections include less than half as much new gas capacity by 2035 as expected last year and a quarter of the 2015 figure. In contrast, by 2035 BEIS now expects twice as much renewable capacity as it did in 2015 and twice as much battery storage as projected last year.
 

owedtojoy

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Why nuclear energy is not a real option to solve the problem of carbon emissions.

The lead time on new plants is 10 years, and the world needs to have much more renewable energy in place by 2030.

Nuclear energy may play a part, but it cannot be a leading part.


And ...

How greed and corruption blew up South Korea’s nuclear industry

Seoul had a solution to the world’s energy problems. Then everything went wrong.
Pay-walled, but the gist is here:

How Greed Blew Up the Korean Nuclear Industry
 

owedtojoy

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I think it is agreed that massive nuclear plants with 10-year lead times are out of the question, unless part of a strategy integrated with a broad strategic energy portfolio that includes renewable energy and (possibly) natural gas.

Is there a niche for smaller, cheaper, modular nuclear reactors?


 

wombat

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Is there a niche for smaller, cheaper, modular nuclear reactors?


Just a thought on nuclear - one of the objections is waste storage but if you think of it, nuclear waste is technically easy to store, CO2, on the other hand is difficult.
 

RasherHash

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A decent Irish government would bring in nuclear power and the people would have 'free' electricity (to a limit, which if surpassed would be billed), rather like the way water is currently paid for.
 

owedtojoy

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  • Global demand for cars will decline 3% in 2019, analysts predict.
  • There have been 38,000 job losses among automakers in the last six months.
  • One stark example: Commercial vehicle exports from the UK collapsed by 89% in April.
  • The decline of cars will hurt GDP growth. It has already wiped 0.2% off global GDP.
  • The world may have already passed "peak car."
Certainly, they are telling clients, diesel vehicles will collapse into a small niche as their polluting exhausts are regulated out of existence. Petrol/gasoline vehicles will be next, as governments in Europe and the United States set dates for manufacturers to switch their models to electric.

But that's not all. As on-demand services like Uber and Lyft grow their customer bases, more people will decide they no longer need to own a car of their own. Why would you, when it's cheaper to ride around in someone else's?
 

owedtojoy

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Divestment from fossil fuel stocks is starting to bite.


On CNBC’s pre-market morning show Squawk Box, after both Exxon Mobil and Chevron announced poor Q4 earnings, Mad Money host Jim Cramer pulled no punches with the oil and gas industry. “I’m done with fossil fuels,” he said. “They’re done.” His main reasoning? Divestment is sending the industry into a death spiral.

....

Cramer doubled down. “I think they’re tobacco,” he said. “We’re in a new world.”
 

Patslatt1

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The main problem with renewables ...as I see it... is not just the intermittency but the "footprint" problem.
How much of the countryside are you willing to see festooned with solar panels and wind turbines to keep up with energy needs?
Australia would settle for that.
 

RasherHash

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