Bond Yield Prediction 17/11/2010

Cassandra Syndrome

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
16,885
I think with the uncertainity the yield will explode over the next few days surpassing the 10% level before the weekend. Also I think the Euro will fall further as tensions grow over the possibility of securing a bailout.

Any thoughts or predictions?
 


Odyessus

Well-known member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
12,890
I think with the uncertainity the yield will explode over the next few days surpassing the 10% level before the weekend. Also I think the Euro will fall further as tensions grow over the possibility of securing a bailout.

Any thoughts or predictions?

My thought is a low euro is good for our exporters and tourism.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,203
I can only see it continuting to rise. Only two things can bring it down, a passed budget that goes some way to balancing the books and an election that produces a stable alternative government.

Neither of those will happen in the next couple of weeks, so up, up and away
 

antiestablishmentarian

Well-known member
Joined
May 25, 2009
Messages
2,150
It went up from 8.17 to 8.53 today, tomorrow I predict it will break 8.85 based on upwards trends and that fudge of a Dáil statement which came after the European markets ceased trading.
 

johnfás

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 22, 2007
Messages
2,715
The Government has got to keep calm on the bond rate. You are correct, it is going to explode in the secondary market. However, we are not at this very moment borrowing in the secondary market and we know we will be in the EFSF before we return to the market, whenever that is. That explosion in the secondary market will be used as traction by actors in the €urozone in an attempt to shunt us into an arrangement which may not be in our best interests. We have got to negotiate this deal, as best we can, on our terms. That is an incredibly difficult task, but it has got to be done insofar as possible. The reality is that every inch of negotiation with the EU now has a real effect on your job and the prospects for you and your children.

Some other €urozone members and the ECB also don't seem to realise that their policies at this very moment in time are likely to cannibalise the €uro project and also give a North American based organisation huge traction over the whole of the European economy - that includes France and Germany. I don't think this is positive and I don't think my German and French friends should either.
 

RightCentreLeft

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 22, 2010
Messages
925
depends on how the rumour mill goes tomorrow.

If there is any hint of a bailout deal I would say the bond rates will go sub 8%

If we continue to be stubborn about a deal then I would imagine it could hit 9% tomorrow
 

Marcos the black

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 3, 2009
Messages
18,458
Cass...
Agree, think markets will go nuts, at 9 % they were hedging, at 8 they were factoring in bail out, now that it's been put off.... God knows..But the markets will decide that this uncertainty won't last for long..
 

MPB

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 27, 2009
Messages
4,455
I can only see it continuting to rise. Only two things can bring it down, a passed budget that goes some way to balancing the books and an election that produces a stable alternative government.

Neither of those will happen in the next couple of weeks, so up, up and away
Only one thing can bring our bond rate down and that is to rid ourselves of the Bank debt.

Hand it to the ECB and tell them to deal with it and the sovereign bond rates will be akin to Germanys within a month.
 

constitutionus

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 19, 2007
Messages
23,284
hell im game for a laugh so ill chuck in a guestimate based on the muppetry ive seen today before going to bed.

9.10%

ive a feeling it wont actually be as bad as i first thought but i think it could hit that before falling back a bit.

night night all !

:)
 

patslatt

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 11, 2007
Messages
13,637
Spiralling interest costs make it very difficult to cut deficit

I can only see it continuting to rise. Only two things can bring it down, a passed budget that goes some way to balancing the books and an election that produces a stable alternative government.

Neither of those will happen in the next couple of weeks, so up, up and away
Balancing the books in the next four to six years will be very difficult if interest rates don't drop to reasonable levels. Six years from now,debt could be 130% of GNP of say €150 billion or about €195 billion. At interest rates in the range of 5 to 8%,the interest would be €9.8 to €15.6 billion. That's 6.5% to 10.4% of GNP.

If government spending is reduced enough from the present ludicrous level in 2010 of about 58% of GNP,the interest burden would be bearable. Government spending obviously has to be cut to make room for ballooning interest. Without such cuts,interest increases likely would push government spending to well above 60% of GNP,clearly unsustainable. It is unlikely government spending will drop below the high forties percents,given that the portion of the budget left over after interest payments would be about 38 to 41% of GNP,compared to about 55% this year.

That's a drop in the ratio of 25 to 31% and it has to be achieved largely through cuts in government spending as opposed to growing the private sector. With two years of austerity already,it is unlikely that the public sector could be held in check for four to six more years,so it is critical that deep cuts be front loaded.
 

vanla sighs

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 1, 2009
Messages
5,089
Maybe we are going to default at some stage? This year, next year, 2012? What happens when you default on the IMF and the EU Stability Fund? Do they kidnap your PM and torture him?
 
Joined
Sep 10, 2008
Messages
3,566
The bond rates will rise today thats for certain.

However had Clowen just come out last night with his touch of crap then the rates would have gone to 9%, but because the EU and IMF have basically overridden Clowen & Co the Markets will be happoer so the rate will be mostly static with a slight increase. Maybe 8.3 - 8.4

Unless of course the government make another speech of defiance.
 

slumdog1971

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 24, 2009
Messages
616
I wonder will they rise.

It looks to me like they will continue to fall. No one is going to be buying the things for another 4 years now anyway
 

HarshBuzz

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 28, 2008
Messages
11,815
never mind the sovereign yield

it's the banks' funding positions that are key and they're running on fumes
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top