Bonds back at 6.5% - Election needed now.

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Terrible news, the bond markets have returned to 6.5%, clearly the markets are showing they have no faith in our government and are set to reach 7% or more by the time we come to borrow next year.

Fianna Fail must do the right thing and call an election, its time to give the country stability and a credible 6 year plan that the markets will have faith in.

0.282%
VALUE: 6.532

Ireland 10 Year (GIGB10YR:IND)


GIGB10YR: Ireland 10 Year Summary - Bloomberg
 


subaculture

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So at 5.3%, we don't need an election, but at 6.5% we do. Maybe at 7% we should have a revolution.

I take it you never invested in anything in your life?

We have to wait until after the budget to make any judgments as to market sentiment and not panic at each days figures. In case we are not going back to the market until next Spring (this years borrowing requirements are fulfilled).
 

Partizan

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So at 5.3%, we don't need an election, but at 6.5% we do. Maybe at 7% we should have a revolution.

I take it you never invested in anything in your life?

We have to wait until after the budget to make any judgments as to market sentiment and not panic at each days figures. In case we are not going back to the market until next Spring (this years borrowing requirements are fulfilled).
Yep, kick the can further down the road and hope for the best. What happens after a particularly nasty budget, the January tax take and VAT figures are disastrous, unemployment spikes and we go back to the markets for more money. Will the market say, "sure heres another €20bn".

will they fvck.

Everything will be alright in 2011. Eamonn Ryan says the economy will be back flying again in 2017.
 

dubboy

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I do think there should be an election, but realistically it'll make no difference to the bond yields, in fact the calling of an election might get them to rise more because of the uncertainty etc.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Election? In a dictatorship? The only social choice that we will have control over after Christmas is breathing.
 

subaculture

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fter a particularly nasty budget, the January tax take and VAT figures are disastrous, unemployment spikes and we go back to the markets for more money. Will the market say, "sure heres another €20bn".
.

Well, as far as the markets go.. the nastier the budget the better.

What makes you think unemployment will go up, VAT, corporate tax takes will fall?

In any case the Dept of Finance has already made available the various best / worst financial scenarios to the various party leaders.
 

HarshBuzz

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much as I detest FF, changing government at this stage will not make any difference whatsoever
 

Partizan

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Well, as far as the markets go.. the nastier the budget the better.

What makes you think unemployment will go up, VAT, corporate tax takes will fall?

In any case the Dept of Finance has already made available the various best / worst financial scenarios to the various party leaders.
Really, many European finance ministers have copied Lenny's slash and burn approach and it hasnt made a blind bit of difference.

We could cut €5 or €7 billion from the budget and cost of borrowing will still increase because taking that amount of the economy would send us further into a deflationary spiral. Revenue from Tax and VAT will still be down, workers losing their jobs and people will still not spend. As long as their is no stimulus plan you might as well be pissing against the wind.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Well, as far as the markets go.. the nastier the budget the better.

What makes you think unemployment will go up, VAT, corporate tax takes will fall?

In any case the Dept of Finance has already made available the various best / worst financial scenarios to the various party leaders.
The Department of Finance's worst case scenario? That's akin to receiving Valium rather than morphine.

These clowns couldn't predict a Millwall V West Ham aftermatch brawl, they are so fecking dumb and cotton wooled from the real world. Their nightmare scenario is 1% GROWTH. WTF?

How can we grow? The global economy is shrinking again as the stimulus BS wears out, so there goes the Export option. What's left? the domestic economy? That is hemorraging debt obligation money to Germany? Get real.

You could remove over €15 Billion from this economy by eliminating the dead end money that goes on useless bureaucratic jobs, stupid seminars and useless training courses. But we can't be upsetting the buddies of the Neofeudalists now can we?
 

Malbekh

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I can't understand this perspective that the bond market investors are some sort of benign all-knowing institutions that are parting with their hard-earned cash to benefit this country.

They're just a bunch of self-serving jerks in suits that are trying to maximise their profits. Anything that can be said or done through their extensive network of political and financial friends to maximise their return can and will be used against this state.

I'm not advocating conspirational hysteria here, but there's not much point in looking at it in any other way. The sooner this or any future government learns that the principles and values of the nation override those of the bond markets, the better.

Calling for a GE purely because of what is happening in the bond markets only reinforces the removal of this government for controlling fiscal policies.

God only knows we want to see the back of this government, but not at the cost of giving the bond markets another ego trip of personal power and authority.
 

anons

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I can't understand this perspective that the bond market investors are some sort of benign all-knowing institutions that are parting with their hard-earned cash to benefit this country.

They're just a bunch of self-serving jerks in suits that are trying to maximise their profits. Anything that can be said or done through their extensive network of political and financial friends to maximise their return can and will be used against this state.

I'm not advocating conspirational hysteria here, but there's not much point in looking at it in any other way. The sooner this or any future government learns that the principles and values of the nation override those of the bond markets, the better.

Calling for a GE purely because of what is happening in the bond markets only reinforces the removal of this government for controlling fiscal policies.

God only knows we want to see the back of this government, but not at the cost of giving the bond markets another ego trip of personal power and authority.
All very true. While important, the bond markets don't deserve such constant hysteria. It's getting boring here...
 

HarshBuzz

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I They're just a bunch of self-serving jerks in suits that are trying to maximise their profits.
speaking as a 'self-serving jerk in a suit' :p, what's wrong with maximising your profits? that is the central tenet of capitalism after all

(as long as you act within legal constraints)
 
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So at 5.3%, we don't need an election, but at 6.5% we do. Maybe at 7% we should have a revolution.

I take it you never invested in anything in your life?

We have to wait until after the budget to make any judgments as to market sentiment and not panic at each days figures. In case we are not going back to the market until next Spring (this years borrowing requirements are fulfilled).
THe Brits had rising bonds, they have as much debt to GDP as us, but they had an election and their bonds droped to under 3%.

You would be surprised at how a bit of stability can help the yield.
 

dubboy

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Yes, but the UK was a totally different situation, everyone knew the Conservatives were going to cut more and reduce the deficit, so of course the yields fell after they were elected. That's not the case in Ireland
 

HarshBuzz

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Yes, but the UK was a totally different situation, everyone knew the Conservatives were going to cut more and reduce the deficit, so of course the yields fell after they were elected. That's not the case in Ireland
it is actually

we know that the government is going to 'cut more and reduce the deficit', no matter who's in power

what we don't have is details or a government with a mandate to do this

and we're in much worse shape than the UK
 
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The bond markets want their money back, if they feel that a real crdible stable plan over 6 years with cut and growth is put togeather they know that they will get their money back.

If they see a FF government trying to bluff their way through a 4 year plan that is unrealistic and backed up with No mandate the bond markets will panic and wont lend to us.
 

dubboy

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it is actually

we know that the government is going to 'cut more and reduce the deficit', no matter who's in power

what we don't have is details or a government with a mandate to do this

and we're in much worse shape than the UK
I know that, but in the UK, the reason the yields went down is because the tories were going to cut much more and faster than labour were going to. FG/LAbour here have already said they are going to follow the same cuts (to get the deficit below 3%) as FF so in that way it'll make no difference.

Don't think the bond markets care whose in power really, they know what they're getting with FF, and uncertainty with the others could cause them to run, I know we're in way worse shape than the uk, why does that matter to this argument?
 

HarshBuzz

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Don't think the bond markets care whose in power really
this is very true and I just tested it out on a sovereign analyst (in London):

I asked him what he thought of Irish paper and he said 'in the toilet'

then I asked him who's in power in Ireland and he said 'haven't a clue but they're ************************ed anyway!'
 


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