Breaking: UK to Invoke Article 50 early 2017 and 'Hard Brexit' on the cards

gatsbygirl20

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Well Britain has never been a mastermind when it comes to diplomacy and her constant mudslinging against the EU and its core values will not help when negotiations are begun. In reality, the EU does not have to accept any conditions and, once Article 50 is triggered, Britain will have to go. All the EU has to do is play a lot of stalling tactics while giving in to a handful of pointless concessions to keep them silent.


Two things are certainly OUT!

-1 Membership of the common market without free movement
-2 Wide access to free movement while Britain does not reciprocate
The Jan/ Feb date may just be aspirational.

Britain will need to have all her ducks in a row--and there are a lot of ducks--before triggering Article 50

Once it's triggered the clock is ticking, and the options narrow.

I don't think Britain will be in a great hurry to get on that white knuckle ride, whatever is said publicly

Davis was sending out signals and getting his excuses in early in his tantrum about British businesses. No doubt he sees the huge, head-wrecking task ahead, is wondering if it can be done, and the realisation dawning that no matter how hard he works, or what he achieves, he will be excoriated for not achieving more
 


AntoinFF

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The Jan/ Feb date may just be aspirational.

Britain will need to have all her ducks in a row--and there are a lot of ducks--before triggering Article 50

Once it's triggered the clock is ticking, and the options narrow.

I don't think Britain will be in a great hurry to get on that white knuckle ride, whatever is said publicly

Davis was sending out signals and getting his excuses in early in his tantrum about British businesses. No doubt he sees the huge, head-wrecking task ahead, is wondering if it can be done, and the realisation dawning that no matter how hard he works, or what he achieves, he will be excoriated for not achieving more
I still firmly believe that Article 50 will be triggered quickly. You must remember that more of the electorate voted to leave than to stay and many voted to leave passionately. Any hint that an exit may not occur would cause a lot of trouble for May. What's more, May can take the risk of leaving. She is ruling what is practically now a one party state and even if there are unfortunate consequences of Brexit (Which we all know there will be), she knows well that Labour are in no position to do anything about it, and won't be for some time.


Really and truly, Brexit must happen. It was voted for and May will not make her first major task ignoring the people, especially when she has no mandate of her own. Brexit will happen and it will happen by 2019. The EU will not tolerate this foot dragging for too long and, while they may not have any power to hurry Britain up, they will become less willing to negotiate on a fair footing if Britain gets cocky now.
 

gatsbygirl20

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I still firmly believe that Article 50 will be triggered quickly. You must remember that more of the electorate voted to leave than to stay and many voted to leave passionately. Any hint that an exit may not occur would cause a lot of trouble for May. What's more, May can take the risk of leaving. She is ruling what is practically now a one party state and even if there are unfortunate consequences of Brexit (Which we all know there will be), she knows well that Labour are in no position to do anything about it, and won't be for some time.


Really and truly, Brexit must happen. It was voted for and May will not make her first major task ignoring the people, especially when she has no mandate of her own. Brexit will happen and it will happen by 2019. The EU will not tolerate this foot dragging for too long and, while they may not have any power to hurry Britain up, they will become less willing to negotiate on a fair footing if Britain gets cocky now.
Oh, I agree there will be impatience and anger from the voters if Article 50 is not triggered

Already the cry is up. "Let's just do it. Let's do what we voted for..etc"

But certain things have to be in place I imagine, before Britain puts itself in the position of having the clock ticking as they scramble against a deadline to hammer out deals.

Some of the politicians are already seeing how complicated this is.

In this whole Brexit thing there seems to be a disconnect between the expectations of voters and the realities of what can be delivered, and when, and how.
 

AntoinFF

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Oh, I agree there will be impatience and anger from the voters if Article 50 is not triggered

Already the cry is up. "Let's just do it. Let's do what we voted for..etc"

But certain things have to be in place I imagine, before Britain puts itself in the position of having the clock ticking as they scramble against a deadline to hammer out deals.

Some of the politicians are already seeing how complicated this is.

In this whole Brexit thing there seems to be a disconnect between the expectations of voters and the realities of what can be delivered, and when, and how.
Cameron initially said it would be done by 8am on the morning Britain voted to leave. He then said he'd leave it for May who then intimated that it would be January or February. Brexiter people are getting impatient already. I share your opinion that there is a lot to think about before a formal exit can occur, but it is Britain's fault that it did not think these events through, and the EU will not be patient.
 

SideysGhost

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In this whole Brexit thing there seems to be a disconnect between the expectations of voters and the realities of what can be delivered, and when, and how.
Not just Brexit. The Trumpets in the US are similarly delusional wibbling on about walls, deporting millions of people, restoring the lost glory of the Master Race, errr....Making America White Again. I mean "Great". Sorry.
 

benroe

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Of course they are going to invoke article 50, why wouldn't they? they don't have an "organ grinder" anymore, meanwhile we remain "monkeys".
 

firefly123

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Oh, I agree there will be impatience and anger from the voters if Article 50 is not triggered

Already the cry is up. "Let's just do it. Let's do what we voted for..etc"

But certain things have to be in place I imagine, before Britain puts itself in the position of having the clock ticking as they scramble against a deadline to hammer out deals.

Some of the politicians are already seeing how complicated this is.

In this whole Brexit thing there seems to be a disconnect between the expectations of voters and the realities of what can be delivered, and when, and how.
It might have something to do with the brexiters promises of a return to Dame vera Lynn singing songs whilst Street parties were held to celebrate Britain's single handed victory over the Jerries bendy bananas!
 

SideysGhost

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Behind a paywall. When you get up off the floor can you send a Screen shot or whatever. ;)
Same story, different source. Maggie May is insisting only she will decide when to trigger Article 50 and ministers should not be speculating on the date to da meeja, thus telling BoJo to STFU and contradicting his earlier comments to the press. It's hilariously incompetent stuff.

Theresa May to decide over Brexit talks, No 10 says after Boris begins setting out strategy
 

Nemesiscorporation

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gatsbygirl20

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It might have something to do with the brexiters promises of a return to Dame vera Lynn singing songs whilst Street parties were held to celebrate Britain's single handed victory over the Jerries bendy bananas!

Public political discourse in so many areas--including US elections--has reduced itself to simplistic slogans, infantile handbagging, lurid emotionalism and circus spectacle.

The Remainers made a shamefully poor attempt to clearly and persuasively address all the issues raised by the Brexiters and to pick apart some of their wilder claims.

Or to listen respectfully to their concerns.

If we have Trump in the White House and British politicians and civil servants tearing their hair out trying to bring into being the Dream Brexit that the Daily Mail promised its readers.....well, maybe they'll resolve to address the concerns of the people next time.....
 

SideysGhost

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There is nothing to laugh about. Brexit has the potential once invoked to obliterate the economy in the border regions in Ireland and wipe the Northern Ireland ecoomy of the face of the Earth. Morons like Johnston making everything in to a joke is making a mockery of the real suffering that ordinary people could end up facing within 2 years of invoking of Article 50.
Ach ye always have to laugh when a load of pompous Tory buffoons are exposed as bluffers and spoofers and inbred muppets.

But I don't think it'll ever happen tbh. It's more than clear that the UK permanent civil service and political class don't have a baldy's notion what to do next, don't have the skills and resources to renegotiate trade deals with every country ever simultaneously (or even one), have already been publicly warned by the likes of the Chinese and Japanese...

They haven't done anything to actually prepare or organise a Brexit since the vote. I suspect most of the activity going on in Whitehall is desperately trying to figure out some convoluted wheeze to make it all go away while saving some face.
 

gatsbygirl20

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Ach ye always have to laugh when a load of pompous Tory buffoons are exposed as bluffers and spoofers and inbred muppets.

But I don't think it'll ever happen tbh. It's more than clear that the UK permanent civil service and political class don't have a baldy's notion what to do next, don't have the skills and resources to renegotiate trade deals with every country ever simultaneously (or even one), have already been publicly warned by the likes of the Chinese and Japanese...

They haven't done anything to actually prepare or organise a Brexit since the vote. I suspect most of the activity going on in Whitehall is desperately trying to figure out some convoluted wheeze to make it all go away while saving some face.
The awful thing is, I have a sinking feeling that you may be right. ( especially the bit about the activity going on in Whitehall....Davis and his officials do not..er...inspire confidence, to say the least)
 

LDF

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There is nothing to laugh about. Brexit has the potential once invoked to obliterate the economy in the border regions in Ireland and wipe the Northern Ireland ecoomy of the face of the Earth. Morons like Johnston making everything in to a joke is making a mockery of the real suffering that ordinary people could end up facing within 2 years of invoking of Article 50.
The UN has lots of experience in food aid delivery programmes. I'm sure they could quickly set up an advanced warehouse in Newry to help feed the starving masses once those Euro heavyweights Donald Tusk, Martin Schultz, Guy Verhofstadt and Jean Claude Juncker have dispatched with the UK.

Our EU heros can then turn their collective attention to their other 'successes' - an economy which is about as lively as a wet Tuesday in Drumshambo, rapidly ageing populations and a banking system which makes an AIDS monkey with Ebola look positively radiant with health.
 

Ceartgoleor

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Fairplay to the Brits all the same. They stand by democracy rather than immediately try to undermine it like our corrupt politicians of FF/FG & L did with Nice2 & Lisbon2. Not that SF would be any different given their newly found Europhile tendancies.

While some within the British political system maintain undemocratic tendencies it seems those who want to respect the peoples choice have the upper hand.

Cameron's resignation was also a boost for democracy as he recognised he had failed and moved out of the way to allow those who won deliver the process.

Contrast this with Ireland where a corrupt bunch of chancers & wasters from our last government got a hiding in the election and yet they remain in power with the support of an ever great bunch of crooks! Sadly our choice is between between two sets of crooks.

God help Ireland. Our only real hope lies in #IREXIT. Is there anyone outside our established parties willing to campaign for it? We need a fresh new democratic movement in this country that offers more than pretend democracy but does real democracy like in Britain.
 

firefly123

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The awful thing is, I have a sinking feeling that you may be right. ( especially the bit about the activity going on in Whitehall....Davis and his officials do not..er...inspire confidence, to say the least)
I'd say countries ARE falling over themselves to negotiate trade agreements with Britain whilst they are acting like a gang of incompetent buffoons who are desperately flailing about looking for a blankie now that they realise their fancy pants are transparent.
 


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