Brexit checks on goods trade between Britain and Northern Ireland far easier than customs checks

Patslatt1

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The linked artice from RTE Bad faith? Boris Johnson and the Irish Protocol believes Brexit checks on goods trade between the mainland Britain and Northern Ireland under the agreement with the EU will be as onerous as customs checks. However, differences in purposes between checks and customs suggest otherwise.
Customs checks aim to collect tariffs, enforce quotas, ensure compliance with regulatory standards for goods and seize contraband.In comparison, Brexit checks will do regulatory standards for live animals, seize contraband and ensure that goods with mainland Britain content entering the Irish Republic from Northern Ireland pay any applicable tariffs and meet EU regulatory standards. The volume of activity of checks should be a lot less
There may be some smuggling of Britain content goods into the Republic for expensive luxury goods if they are subjected to high tariffs, possibly the most expensive cars. There may also be cooking of the books by Northern Ireland based manufacturers to conceal or understate the value of imported Britain content in finished goods exported to end markets in the Irish Republic or continental EU countries. Some forensic accounting may be needed to detect this.
Whereas customs tend to check most shipments, Brexit checks could get by with statistical sampling since there doesn't seem to be much incentive for Brexit trade cheating. In auditing of company books, a 3% sample is considered sufficient to detect irregularities, although auditors don't claim to be detectives. Some auditors have the skills of a forensic auditor.
Another factor that makes checks easy is the transition to software based customs procedures that slash the time involved in paper based procedures. Maersk, the giant shipping company, along with IBM have invited all comers to use their software platform for customs procedures.
 


owedtojoy

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The linked artice from RTE Bad faith? Boris Johnson and the Irish Protocol believes Brexit checks on goods trade between the mainland Britain and Northern Ireland under the agreement with the EU will be as onerous as customs checks. However, differences in purposes between checks and customs suggest otherwise.
Customs checks aim to collect tariffs, enforce quotas, ensure compliance with regulatory standards for goods and seize contraband.In comparison, Brexit checks will do regulatory standards for live animals, seize contraband and ensure that goods with mainland Britain content entering the Irish Republic from Northern Ireland pay any applicable tariffs and meet EU regulatory standards. The volume of activity of checks should be a lot less
There may be some smuggling of Britain content goods into the Republic for expensive luxury goods if they are subjected to high tariffs, possibly the most expensive cars. There may also be cooking of the books by Northern Ireland based manufacturers to conceal or understate the value of imported Britain content in finished goods exported to end markets in the Irish Republic or continental EU countries. Some forensic accounting may be needed to detect this.
Whereas customs tend to check most shipments, Brexit checks could get by with statistical sampling since there doesn't seem to be much incentive for Brexit trade cheating. In auditing of company books, a 3% sample is considered sufficient to detect irregularities, although auditors don't claim to be detectives. Some auditors have the skills of a forensic auditor.
Another factor that makes checks easy is the transition to software based customs procedures that slash the time involved in paper based procedures. Maersk, the giant shipping company, along with IBM have invited all comers to use their software platform for customs procedures.
This all depends on how much mainland Britain diverges from EU standards.

Low divergence will make life easy, high divergence will increase risk. It makes Britain as alien to the EU as Canada or Japan.

And the indications are the UK at the moment intends high divergence. At least, this is what Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid affirmed in a recent FT interview.


Javid was unsympathetic to business, which he said should have been getting ready since 2016. This is the "**** Business" Tory Party, after all.

This could make checks a nightmare, as goods from the UK mainland might as well be goods from Japan, and once they are in Northern Ireland, will be in the EU for all intents and purposes.

(Clive Taylor said today in the Irish Times that what Javid said was more important than anything said by any Irish politician in the election campaign.)
 

Patslatt1

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This all depends on how much mainland Britain diverges from EU standards.

Low divergence will make life easy, high divergence will increase risk. It makes Britain as alien to the EU as Canada or Japan.

And the indications are the UK at the moment intends high divergence. At least, this is what Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid affirmed in a recent FT interview.


Javid was unsympathetic to business, which he said should have been getting ready since 2016. This is the "**** Business" Tory Party, after all.

This could make checks a nightmare, as goods from the UK mainland might as well be goods from Japan, and once they are in Northern Ireland, will be in the EU for all intents and purposes.

(Clive Taylor said today in the Irish Times that what Javid said was more important than anything said by any Irish politician in the election campaign.)
UK divergence will come at a cost in higher tariffs than without divergence, maybe strictly limiting divergence as business lobbies object. If the hard right element in the Tory government think they can ignore business, that could cost them the next general election given that the Bank of England has forecast that hard Brexit would result in a recession worse than the great financial crash. An unreconstructed Labour party riddled with Corbynistas could complete the UK's economic wreckage.
 

McTell

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No
A lot of chinese-made goods get the CE stamp because they are eu-standards compliant.

It's not unknown territory. Case by case, sector by sector, some will comply, others not.
 

Patslatt1

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For the independent trade deals Johnson's government would like, a lot of trade would not be compliant with EU standards.
 

lff12

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The UK might like to stay out of alignment but many of the EU's standards are shared by other markets. The UK will have little choice but to align to the markets it wants to stay trading with.
 

owedtojoy

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The UK might like to stay out of alignment but many of the EU's standards are shared by other markets. The UK will have little choice but to align to the markets it wants to stay trading with.
There's the rub, as they say.

I listened to a knowledgeable lady on Newstalk yesterday, who said we would know by July where this was going, and how much Boris Johnson would push towards his goal.

She thought he was serious about departure at the end of 2020, but the circumstances were unclear. The EU wants a Fisheries Agreement by mid-summer. Fisheries is only 1% of the UK economy, but the symbolism is enormous, and it is the first major test of both negotiators.
 


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