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Brexit for Slow-Learners

Shpake

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Risk of no-deal Brexit ‘very high’, says key EU negotiator | Politics | The Guardian

Speed-readers and such workaholics always had me left with a feeling of inadequacy and of being flummoxed. But my tortoise-like quality of getting back to basics and asking "what's-it-all-about" seemed to get there in the end... a bit like the paradox of Achilles and the Tortoise.
In this case of Brexit -- going on for nearly two years -- I thought like many: "OH NO! Disaster ahead!" And I still think that. But the stock market is only thinking like this in the past eight or nine months... and not for all of the firms it would seem.
With Theresa May's furious debacle in Vienna,Brussels(?)and then her "Dancing Queen" press conference, my tortoise-like brain began to ask questions:
Is Theresa May very smart or is she very stupid -- how could she have frittered away two years like this?
Was it part of her strategy to use the urgency of the last days hours and minutes to force and bluster something through to her advantage?
Another notion I harboured is that -- like in many negotiations -- it can come down to a "game of chicken".
"Do we need them more than they need us?"
It's a novel position for Ireland to be in: Of course we need Britain more than they need us, but the reverse is the case with Britain and the EU. So Leo according to this assumption has been playing a real stormer. Straddling the situation he has had the EU waiting for Theresa to crumble.
... and then that dam Polish ForMin went and broke ranks -- after all the hungry threadbare Poles we took in during the noughties! And then the same Poles go chiding poor Leo about our corpo tax matters at the Davos conference. But sinn scéal eile, that's another story.

The latest development is that Theresa is gone back off to Brussels with the "Graham Brady ammendment".
And that has met with a brick wall from the EU.

Common sense would seem suggest: A border down the Irish Sea, then it's done & dusted -- but that could only happen on the far side of an UK parliament election.

So Leo playing a stormer ? There is only one little fly on the ointment. He might acheive what he must hope to avoid. A no-deal with the UK crashing out of the EU which the lady in the link Sabine Weyand -- deputy negotiator in Michel Barnier's team suggests is on the cards. And that would mean a Hard Border, custom checks, police patrols -- Just what Leo seems to be ramping up the preparations for at the Mo.

But don't forget the long game. Let's say if -- No, lets say When the Brits crash out or arrange their way out and what is likely, after one two or three years ask if they might rejoin the EU. Well one condition for new-entrants is that they must join the Euro currency.
So then the Brits would have to abandon their beloved pound sterling, and promise to behave themselves this next time -- i.e. take a shower every day, wash behind their ears, walk on the pavement, go to mass etc.
 


Roomtwo

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But don't forget the long game. Let's say if -- No, lets say When the Brits crash out or arrange their way out and what is likely, after one two or three years ask if they might rejoin the EU. Well one condition for new-entrants is that they must join the Euro currency.
So then the Brits would have to abandon their beloved pound sterling, and promise to behave themselves this next time -- i.e. take a shower every day, wash behind their ears, walk on the pavement, go to mass etc.


Their economy will be in too bad a state to be allowed to join the euro,
Spain will veto their membership,
and they'll have to go to the back of the queue :petunia:
 
Last edited:

firefly123

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They can rejoin after the Republic of Scotland.
 

Shpake

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Their economy will be too bad a state to be allowed to join the euro,
Spain will veto their membership,
and they'll have to go to the back of the queue :petunia:
It strikes me that up untill this month there were two teams of players. The EU in Brussels and the Conservatives in Britain.
Now the focus is on the warring factions in the house of commons: Brexit hardliners, Theresa May supporters, Labour...
of late the MPs seem to be rallying around the flag of "avoid a no-deal disorderly Brexit" at all costs.
But what times it now? nearly 21:00 Monday 28th Jan. In one week's time they might be playing a game of tip & tig or blind man's buff.
 

Roomtwo

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It strikes me that up untill this month there were two teams of players. The EU in Brussels and the Conservatives in Britain.
Now the focus is on the warring factions in the house of commons: Brexit hardliners, Theresa May supporters, Labour...
of late the MPs seem to be rallying around the flag of "avoid a no-deal disorderly Brexit" at all costs.
But what times it now? nearly 21:00 Monday 28th Jan. In one week's time they might be playing a game of tip & tig or blind man's buff.

I think lots of em hung about too long waiting for Corbyn to pull a rabbit out, before they dared stand up and join the grown ups, and now it's probably all too late. Hope I'm wrong.
 

Marcos the black

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Engerland = Good. EU = Bad.
Innit.
 

Shpake

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I don't believe in slo-mo train-wrecks -- until they take on the form that they are going to happen. I even experienced one in a job I had: This new lady took over -- and power has strange affects on some people. Like as if they are drunk. Some people say it increases the sexual potency. This lady in question seemed to have become "in love" withe some obscure theory of doing things. All the old hands, the white haired old foxes told her "Don't do it". But the lady was not for turning. She went ahead and loads of long time workers lost their jobs. -- she ended up being demoted... had a more secure contract of employment :frown:
But we've lived through the times of Bertie and Biffo. We've seen it happen before our eyes.
Well a disaster is when one train-wreck takes place. A catastrophe is when two or more come together. Maybe Brexit and something Trumpesque ?
 

Shpake

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May To Hold Second Brexit Deal Vote On Feb. 14 | Zero Hedge

Just the latest article to come in...
According to a series of tweets about the meeting, May has committed to whipping up votes for an amendment proposed by Graham Brady, the leader of the Tories 1922 Committee of backbenchers, that calls for replacing the Irish backstop with an 'alternative arrangement'. That essentially confirms reports that May had dispatched her chief Whip Julian Smith to quietly whip up support for the Brady amendment, which May believes would be more palatable to the EU27
.

Did I not admit I was a slow-learner?

May's pitch to Tory MPs was that if she can pass the amendment and prove to the EU that she could pass a modified version of the Brexit Withdrawal agreement, they might be receptive when she once again formally asks them to reopen negotiations. Still, members of the ERG - the group of rebel Tory Brexiteers who have led the opposition to May's deal - are skeptical about supporting the amendment, while members of the DUP have also expressed reluctance, once again contradicting reports that May was oh so close to winning the party's support, according to a statement tweeted by DUP MP Sammy Wilson.
But wait! I think that this has been rejected today ... ZH's article was written at 14:00 and the Gaurdian at 17:00
 

Spanner Island

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The UK have decided to play an unwinnable game of chicken with themselves and will blame everything and everyone else for the outcome regardless of what that is but which is likely to be bad.
 

recedite

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Sabine who?
I tells ya, never trust anybody who cuts their own hair using a pyrex bowl for a template.

she says..
She added that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the UK and Irish governments would “lose the one operational solution to the Irish border conundrum but we’d be stuck with the same scenario”.
“So you could imagine a no-deal scenario with the backstop being discussed,” she said.
In plain English, that means "there will be a hard border".
Why speak in such coded language? Even most native English speakers won't be able to understand that, let alone our continental buddies.

Who does she "imagine" would be discussing a backstop that would apply in a no deal scenario?
The US Cavalry?
Too much champagne can do that to a eurocrat's imagination alright.
 

firefly123

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Sabine who?
I tells ya, never trust anybody who cuts their own hair using a pyrex bowl for a template.

she says..

In plain English, that means "there will be a hard border".
Why speak in such coded language? Even most native English speakers won't be able to understand that, let alone our continental buddies.

Who does she "imagine" would be discussing a backstop that would apply in a no deal scenario?
The US Cavalry?
Too much champagne can do that to a eurocrat's imagination alright.


 

ruman

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Basically a hard border will be required. Either we put one in NI or the EU will impose one on our travel and exports to the rest of the EU.

Leo , the senior civil servants along with our subservient media have spent the last 2 years clapping themselves on the back over supposedly outmanouvering the brits.

The last week or 2 grim reality on the necessity for a hard border seems to be hitting the glic boys
 

yosef shompeter

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Brexit: Theresa May will ask the EU to reopen Brexit deal - BBC News
Theresa May has told MPs she will seek to re-open negotiations with the EU over the Northern Ireland backstop.

The PM said she would go back to Brussels to get a "significant and legally binding change" to the controversial proposal, which aims to stop the return of border checks.

The EU has said it will not change the legal text agreed with the UK PM.

Mrs May said she knew there was a "limited appetite" in the EU, but she believed she could "secure" it.
Whatever about Theresa May, you have to hand it to her. She's got staying power. And the amount of stick she seems able to take (from all sides) and just carries on regardless. So she's looked up some more clauses and phrases, re-tuned and reworded the previous agreement so as to try and get the EU to move on it -- and also hopes to get the "Brand New Agreement" through parliament. -- Don't hold your breath on either of these.

A lady was on the radio today... I think on the Joe Duffy ... it struck me that she was from Cork or the Munster area. She came out on the Irish side (of course) and how it was up to the British side to compromise. She lamented that the British media were giving the Irish and Simon Coveny and Leo Varadkar the bull blast of their wrath and blaming, but she urged them to stand firm like never before.
One point she had that still reverberates inside me: She pointed out that Ireland had to take over the debts of the German bondholders (and to be fair the Irish banks) during the Great Financial Crisis -- and that we will be paying off the debt for the course of the next generation and hence, the Europeans should stand by Ireland.
I might put it another way. If the Europeans don't stand by us. We are up Chit's Creek. And perhaps the Europeans are too if we simply cannot pay.
We will be put pin-to-collar trying to pay back 200 Billion euros once the UK market and UK CAP contributions are restricted from us and then the costs of retooling industry and transport and reorganizing supply chains.
There's an awful lot of money at stake. The Dutch, Germans, Belgians and French stand to lose out too and of course they might think that Ireland's debt problem is no skin off their ass (until we go for bankruptcy of course). But markets and politicians tend to be fixated on the future... the past is done and dusted.
That might be the reason the Poles intervened to tell Ireland to compromise last week.
And that's Theresa May's trump card too. That Europe stands to lose out big time if they don't compromise. (But not as much as the UK or Ireland).
Unfortunately some countries bear more of the burden than others and kind of might be persuaded to nudge Ireland into meek compliance.
All hail Euro solidarity. If there's another gaff like the Polish side from last week... and we are left standing without a backstop, I wonder is there another Economic community somewhere that we can join?
Theresa May seems optimistic... or hard-necked.
brace yourselves for the 29th...
but of course the Germans will give her an extension.
It ain't over till the fat lady sings.
 

yosef shompeter

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Brexit: Theresa May crawls back to Brussels after caving to Brexiteers to survive Commons showdown - Mirror Online

"What do the British camp know that we don't?" is what I'm worried about. She plans to go back to Brussels with some modified deal but it has already been promptly rejected by Donald Tusk. So what is the point in her making the journey. Well obviously, she seems to think that she can get some new re-interpretation or concession.
I have to admit that if I was Leo Varadkar or Simon Coveny, I'd be very anxious -- paranoid even about what's going on.

On this morning's RTE radio there was some mention of a phone-call between Leo and Theresa which was "extremely short" or did was it described as "very brief". Quite worrying.
But then (as yous all know by now) the game of chicken takes place on both sides of the Irish sea. 50,000 jobs to go in the republic if the UK crashes out and our growth rate drops by around 4% this year.
Fun times ahead.

It would strike me as useful if Theresa was to organize some sort of election/ referendum in Norn Ireland asking the electorate to vote on the wee North staying in the customs union... and having the border for trade going down the Irish sea. I realize that Arlene has rejected this, but there is so much at stake. It doesn't necessarily endanger the political link with the UK.
Of course many people would raise objections and point out that you can't do that because of reasons a, b & c etc.
But it strikes me as being the neatest way out of the bind that the Brits have got themselves into.
Have the big-wigs not tried to hammer something out on these lines already?

What others have pointed out before I'm sure: It's quite possible ... or even likely that say for instance a true-blue loyalist large farm-owner might decide to vote to remain in the Customs Union, or the EU or even for a United Ireland, whereas a Nationalist republican fisherman or trawler owner might decide to vote full Brexit to protect his future catch.
Lots at stake here: some tend to vote Orange or Green, some vote personality but most vote on bread and butter issues... as yous all well know.
 

yosef shompeter

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Just a little rambling on my experiences of people and bureacracy. I'll keep it brief so as not to bore people:
Back in the late eighties the Lufthansa airline decided to review it's policies on maternal leave and conditions. National airlines were coming under increased pressure from their competitors and what was previously a "plum job" was having to cut the generous benefits. So they gave notice that new regulations to be introduced re maternal benefits to fall into place the following year. The result?
A sky-rocketting increase of the figures for stewardesses who went off and got pregnant before the deadline.

You might smile at this but something similar happened in Ireland of the noughties. One of the surest ways to get residency or on the road to citizenship in the EU was to go to Ireland and get pregnant. And that's waht happened. Even the master of the Rotunda was expressing alarm.
But our boyos in the bureacracy.... no flies on them, I can tell ya. In order to screen the new arrivals for any contagious diseases they gently posed the question as to whether the new arrival would like a blood test/medical exam. But heaven help us! our lads they were loathe to run the slightest risk of being exposed to any suggestion of racism and the new arrivals were fearful of not passing the test... so many of them turned it down. And then our aids statistics went up ten-fold. Well considering that it is just less than ten per annum back then it wasn't all that serious.

Just last year some truck or container full of African migrants crashed and they all jumped out and scattered -- about twenty of them. But an Garda Siochana decided not to pursue them.
Better things to do perhaps. No compulsory ID in this country, so why bother? Another truck will be here tomorrow or next week?
Ireland, you gotta luv it as the Murkin said.

I'd say somethin similar is happening with pregnancies and the housing lists... and none of the bureaucrats see it as their job to check it out
 


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