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McSlaggart

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Michelle O'Neill has predicted that a successful vote for a united Ireland will happen in the next 10 years.

The deputy First Minister also said the "reckless" actions of the UK Government over Brexit could persuade more people to vote for Irish unity.

Her comments were made in an interview on the Guardian Weekly Politics Podcast.

She also discussed the death of John Hume, growing up in Co Tyrone during the Troubles, being inspired to enter politics by the Good Friday Agreement, and her relationship with First Minister Arlene Foster.

Ms O'Neill said the "blatant disregard" shown by the government over Brexit had opened up the discussion on Irish unity, including for unionists.


On the topic of Brexit I have found a lot of unionists have gone quiet on the topic. I have been asked by people from a unionist background would I vote for a united Ireland to which I reply yes. It never really gone into the advantages and disadvantages. One gets the impression that most unionists would never vote for a united Ireland but Brexit may have a cooling effect on those who will bother to cast any vote on the referendum if it came up?
 

Lord Talbot

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"Brexit has opened up the discussion on Irish unity, including for unionists"
- some nationalist
 

Sidewindered

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One gets the impression that most unionists would never vote for a united Ireland but Brexit may have a cooling effect on those who will bother to cast any vote on the referendum if it came up?
It'll be a generational thing IMO. The elderly unionists will turn out to vote No even if they are on their literal deathbeds.

Middle-aged unionists will be a mix of mostly No and abstaining with a small percentage in favour. Farmers and Gold Coast liberal unionists are two camps that will be very conflicted post-Brexit and may end up sitting it out in the end.

Younger people...well normally they tend not to vote anyways but you may see a surprising number of under-40 PUL voters deciding to put the whole wretched experiment out of its misery rather than keeping it on life support for another decade or so, if it is going to eventually end anyway.
 

Dame_Enda

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Michelle O'Neill has predicted that a successful vote for a united Ireland will happen in the next 10 years.

The deputy First Minister also said the "reckless" actions of the UK Government over Brexit could persuade more people to vote for Irish unity.

Her comments were made in an interview on the Guardian Weekly Politics Podcast.

She also discussed the death of John Hume, growing up in Co Tyrone during the Troubles, being inspired to enter politics by the Good Friday Agreement, and her relationship with First Minister Arlene Foster.

Ms O'Neill said the "blatant disregard" shown by the government over Brexit had opened up the discussion on Irish unity, including for unionists.


On the topic of Brexit I have found a lot of unionists have gone quiet on the topic. I have been asked by people from a unionist background would I vote for a united Ireland to which I reply yes. It never really gone into the advantages and disadvantages. One gets the impression that most unionists would never vote for a united Ireland but Brexit may have a cooling effect on those who will bother to cast any vote on the referendum if it came up?
They may not vote for it but another question is could they live with it, if we agreed to some sort of protections like autonomy? I realise that the GFA said a UI would trigger unity, if passed in referendums north and south. But I recall the DUP were opposed to the GFA, and I sometimes wonder if their later working of the agreement (with the St.Andrews rejigging of the Assembly rules) would include the provisions on the border poll. I am particularly concerned about the Loyalist paramilitaries.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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Well I could argue he was right and that you've missed the point. The Brexit referendum in 2016 set up an inevitable collision between the union and Westminster.

I could argue that the 2016 referendum result doomed the Union in Northern Ireland. In fact I did because that scenario is exactly why I voted tactically FOR Brexit in 2016 and it is the only reason I voted for Brexit.

If I could see that back in 2016 I'm pretty sure McGuinness would have had a better view than even I had. The only people who seemed to miss that rather large and looming implication was everyone at Westminster.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
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certainly from that vote in 2016 I think we'll find historically that the result of that vote doomed the Union. Definitely looks like and looked back then as a rather large final nail in a creaky oul' coffin.

Far as I recall, ironically enough, it is the only time in my life when I voted and turned out to be voting with a majority. I'm still not sure whether on seeing the news the following day I was more shocked by my being in a majority in any referendum or election or shocked at the actual result.

When the border issue and the GFA started to loom large in the Brexit debates I just felt like the guy wandering across a field at a festival with thousands of people at it, I look down and the breeze has left a 20 note up against the toe of my shoe. I'm not promising any future crystal ball gazing but if Carlsberg did do political predictions on this subject at least I'd be working for Carlsberg right now :)

It's just nice to be really right against the tide at least just once and to me Brexit when measured against the National question is just the gift that keeps on giving.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
The way the current UK government are going we're entirely likely to end up with a new County Gibraltar. Hey ho for the new Emerald Empire.
 

between the bridges

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It'll be a generational thing IMO. The elderly unionists will turn out to vote No even if they are on their literal deathbeds.

Middle-aged unionists will be a mix of mostly No and abstaining with a small percentage in favour. Farmers and Gold Coast liberal unionists are two camps that will be very conflicted post-Brexit and may end up sitting it out in the end.

Younger people...well normally they tend not to vote anyways but you may see a surprising number of under-40 PUL voters deciding to put the whole wretched experiment out of its misery rather than keeping it on life support for another decade or so, if it is going to eventually end anyway.
What i lurve about these forms is the amount of CNR who believe that they are experts on Unionism, well to return the serve and to give yez all a wee tip... if ye truly want a UI....

a) try convincing yer own community first...

b) stop looking down with disdain on the mexicants...
 

between the bridges

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Well I could argue he was right
Ye could argue that black is white and that sh!te tastes alright, yet it would still be meaningless drivel...
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Probably at a quantum level too. And the one thing I do know that in any case it wouldn't be long before I had you nodding along in agreement :)
 

Glaucon

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99.9 per cent of Unionists will vote "No" (and no is a word that Ulster Unionism finds very wholesome). Liberal Alliance and politically unaligned-types may well be persuaded to vote for a united Ireland (or rather, to vote for a way back into the European Union) but this will, surely, be offset by soft Nationalists who are dependent on British largesse to prosper (civil servants and whatnot). There is also the Castle Catholic "I'm British" set who may constitute up to 10% of the overall CNR population.

In sum, Nationalists have their work cut out to get to 50 + 1 even with the godsend that is Brexit.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Fear not. Boris Johnson is easily worth 5% increase in votes for independence in Scotland just by himself. And he may even do better with Northern Ireland.
 

NMunsterman

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Ye could argue that black is white and that sh!te tastes alright, yet it would still be meaningless drivel...

Are you one of those who believes that the Border in the Irish Sea is evidence of the Government on the island of Britain´s further strengthening of the union between the North and the island of Britain.

Fair play to you if so.
 

between the bridges

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99.9 per cent of Unionists will vote "No" (and no is a word that Ulster Unionism finds very wholesome). Liberal Alliance and politically unaligned-types may well be persuaded to vote for a united Ireland (or rather, to vote for a way back into the European Union) but this will, surely, be offset by soft Nationalists who are dependent on British largesse to prosper (civil servants and whatnot). There is also the Castle Catholic "I'm British" set who may constitute up to 10% of the overall CNR population.

In sum, Nationalists have their work cut out to get to 50 + 1 even with the godsend that is Brexit.
Well done Sherlock...

 

NMunsterman

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99.9 per cent of Unionists will vote "No" (and no is a word that Ulster Unionism finds very wholesome). Liberal Alliance and politically unaligned-types may well be persuaded to vote for a united Ireland (or rather, to vote for a way back into the European Union) but this will, surely, be offset
(i) by soft Nationalists who are dependent on British largesse to prosper (civil servants and whatnot). (ii) There is also the Castle Catholic "I'm British" set who may constitute up to 10% of the overall CNR population.

In sum, Nationalists have their work cut out to get to 50 + 1 even with the godsend that is Brexit.

(i) by soft Nationalists who are dependent on British largesse to prosper (civil servants and whatnot)
(ii) There is also the Castle Catholic "I'm British" set who may constitute up to 10% of the overall CNR population.
- Glaucon


(i) If so, then this group is open to persuasion by similar - or even more - largesse available in the Re-United Ireland.
(ii) As I understand it, British identity and citizenship will be available to those born in the North post-Reunification.

Bearing in mind that the North was carved out of the rest of the country in order to specifically return a permanent Unionist majority in perpetuity, it´s hardly surprising that Nationalists have their work cut out to return a 50% + 1.

However, the absolutely astonishing point is that Unionists have managed to undermine the existence of their own statelet to such a degree that they are now a minority and are now in a position whereby their destiny is no longer in their own hands.
 

McSlaggart

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99.9 per cent of Unionists will vote "No" (and no is a word that Ulster Unionism finds very wholesome). Liberal Alliance and politically unaligned-types may well be persuaded to vote for a united Ireland (or rather, to vote for a way back into the European Union) but this will, surely, be offset by soft Nationalists who are dependent on British largesse to prosper (civil servants and whatnot). There is also the Castle Catholic "I'm British" set who may constitute up to 10% of the overall CNR population.

In sum, Nationalists have their work cut out to get to 50 + 1 even with the godsend that is Brexit.
Unionism does have not have an issue with saying NO. Its problem is knowing when to say YES.

The issue has fundamentally changed with Brexit and now its about selecting which "union" is best for you and your family.

If Boris makes world leading deals and sets the economy into a who new level of success then Northern Ireland will stay in the UK.

Currently I see Brexit working out as a complete failure for the UK. (I hope that I am wrong)
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Well done Sherlock...

The fat lady hasn't even stepped up to the microphone and yet you seem to be scoffing at the idea of a United Ireland as if some debate had been had and closed.

I'm sure unionists would love to stop the clock for a while but life doesn't work like that and over time and the cessation of armed hostilities, an increasing population of young people in the North who aren't interested in being cannon fodder for old men and their weird fears then the prognosis for Unionism and Northern Ireland remaining in the Union definitely has a shelf-life on it.

Whether that is 16th November 2016 or 16th November 2026 rather misses the overall point.
 

Glaucon

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Unionism does have not have an issue with saying NO. Its problem is knowing when to say YES.
They already have what they want: "loyal Ulster" as part of the United Kingdom.

The issue has fundamentally changed with Brexit and now its about selecting which "union" is best for you and your family.
It's always "easier" to keep the status quo just as it's always easier to defend than to attack in battle. Humans are, by nature, inclined to seek out routine and equilibrium. You see a fundamental change. Maybe. Maybe not. I sense that you're viewing things as you'd like them to be rather than as they are.

If Boris makes world leading deals and sets the economy into a who new level of success then Northern Ireland will stay in the UK.

Currently I see Brexit working out as a complete failure for the UK. (I hope that I am wrong)
You don't hope that you're wrong. You hope that Brexit is a total disaster for Northern Ireland and that it'll have no option but to seek union with the South. This is perfectly rational and most Nationalists and Republicans will, quite logically, hope for the same. Sinn Féin is in Stormont to make it disappear not to make it work like clockwork. An inclination to change demands some form of instability. You'd be better off admitting this than engaging in games.
 

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