Brexit poker: whose bluff will be called?

Congalltee

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1. Ireland (26) needs a trade deal more than it needs an invisible border (in purely money terms). We can delay phase 2, but can’t afford to impede it. But if border is not sorted in preliminary phase, it will fall down and off the agenda.

2. The DUP’s red line is no internal UK customs regime (even if it’s a win-win). Will they pull down May and risk Corbyn?

3. May was against Brexit, before she was for a red, white and blue Brexit. Can she afford to alienate either wing of her disfunctiinal party.

4 The EU wants lots of exit money and uninterrupted trade. But it needs to give the UK a bad deal to discourage any other exit.

5. Martin wants Varadkar to fail, so he can return to power, but a post-bad-deal Ireland will mean he’ll preside over a declining economy.

6. Corbyn wants Brexit but his party loyalists don’t. Could be risk defections to Liberals.

7. The Brits need a transition deal, as it is dawning on them that Brexit is a bad mess. But this can be vetoed by any of the 27, would they risk a bad deal from their point of view to ensure certainty?


Are countries playing with a full deck, will Ireland go all in or will bluffs be called?0
 


Gin Soaked

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1. Ireland (26) needs a trade deal more than it needs an invisible border (in purely money terms). We can delay phase 2, but can’t afford to impede it. But if border is not sorted in preliminary phase, it will fall down and off the agenda.

2. The DUP’s red line is no internal UK customs regime (even if it’s a win-win). Will they pull down May and risk Corbyn?

3. May was against Brexit, before she was for a red, white and blue Brexit. Can she afford to alienate either wing of her disfunctiinal party.

4 The EU wants lots of exit money and uninterrupted trade. But it needs to give the UK a bad deal to discourage any other exit.

5. Martin wants Varadkar to fail, so he can return to power, but a post-bad-deal Ireland will mean he’ll preside over a declining economy.

6. Corbyn wants Brexit but his party loyalists don’t. Could be risk defections to Liberals.

7. The Brits need a transition deal, as it is dawning on them that Brexit is a bad mess. But this can be vetoed by any of the 27, would they risk a bad deal from their point of view to ensure certainty?


Are countries playing with a full deck, will Ireland go all in or will bluffs be called?0
I doubt that the Irish agenda can be pursued due to a poor hand and having the most to lose. However, they at least understand the rules.

Except the UK. Who are at the table with too much drink taken and no idea how poker works.

Only the EU Can actually afford to be at the table and want to see the UK either cry off or get destroyed.
 

McSlaggart

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I doubt that the Irish agenda can be pursued due to a poor hand and having the most to lose. However, they at least understand the rules.
This is the moment that their hand is strongest so they must get the deal they want now.
 

hollandia

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1. Ireland (26) needs a trade deal more than it needs an invisible border (in purely money terms). We can delay phase 2, but can’t afford to impede it. But if border is not sorted in preliminary phase, it will fall down and off the agenda.

2. The DUP’s red line is no internal UK customs regime (even if it’s a win-win). Will they pull down May and risk Corbyn?

3. May was against Brexit, before she was for a red, white and blue Brexit. Can she afford to alienate either wing of her disfunctiinal party.

4 The EU wants lots of exit money and uninterrupted trade. But it needs to give the UK a bad deal to discourage any other exit.

5. Martin wants Varadkar to fail, so he can return to power, but a post-bad-deal Ireland will mean he’ll preside over a declining economy.

6. Corbyn wants Brexit but his party loyalists don’t. Could be risk defections to Liberals.

7. The Brits need a transition deal, as it is dawning on them that Brexit is a bad mess. But this can be vetoed by any of the 27, would they risk a bad deal from their point of view to ensure certainty?


Are countries playing with a full deck, will Ireland go all in or will bluffs be called?0
1. No, it doesn't.
2. Yes. They are that obdurate.
3. No.
4. Yes, then no. The terms of leaving the EU are themselves punitive.
5. The economy will be no worse.
6. No risk of defections. The lib Dems, are defunct. See also Irish labour.
7. They're fecked either way.
 

paddycomeback

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The UK Ireland Act 1949 makes it clear RoI will never be considered a "foreign country". Unless that is changed there will be no customs on the UK side.
Any border posts will be on our side "to maintain the integrity of the single market/customs union" manned by the European Border and Coast Guard.
It will set in stone the partition, without the Unionists having to lift a finger.
 

Congalltee

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1. No, it doesn't.
...
Why would German car dealers, French financiars, Belgian bankers etc care about 1.5m people in NI, when there’s billions at stake in trade negotiations? EU26 may currently be making soothing sounds on the border, but it’s hard to see it becoming anything other than a footnote when the real talks begin. It’s currently the this item on the agenda. It can only fall down in priority.
 

automaticforthepeople

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Ireland is not in a position to set out its own agenda on Brexit. It can merely influence EU policy on negotiations. Once the EU does a deal with UK or it doesn't, we'll have to get on with it.
 

Congalltee

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Ireland is not in a position to set out its own agenda on Brexit. It can merely influence EU policy on negotiations. Once the EU does a deal with UK or it doesn't, we'll have to get on with it.
An EU/UK deal is voted on by QMV, but are not a phase 2 decision and transitional arrangements potentially subject to a national veto?
 

seabhac siulach

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In these Brexit talks, who has the strongest hand? The UK must see progress towards a trade agreement before March 2018 (at max.) or companies like Honda have threatened to leave. This is almost an existential crisis for them. It may also be one for Ireland but Ireland has the EU at its back (and already vague promises of compensation if the worst happens). Ireland is in a strong position.

Ireland would seek a beneficial trade agreement but not at the cost of the border being used by the UK as a bargaining chip in future trade talks.
Not to mention the Good Friday agreement and its obligation to its citizens in the 6 counties.

For Ireland, a hard border should be an absolute red line, a clear veto issue.

A country does not have friends, only interests. In this, Ireland should pay the UK back in the same coin they have dealt us for centuries. Moments of such power over our nearest neighbour have come rarely in history. The moment should be exploited until the pips squeak. The UK knows it has no alternative but to compromise (as do the DUP). David Davis has accused the EU of attempting to change the constitutional make up of the UK. In terms of the 6 counties, this should be Ireland's imperative (despite the recent warm words between the countries). As Brexit has shown, having part of the island under UK control weakens the state at every turn, being forced against our will into nonsense like Brexit that damage the island economy.

The trouble is, when it comes down to it pressure to compromise will not come from the UK only, but also from France, Germany etc. Do Coveney/Varadkar have the steel to resist the immense pressure that is to come? Failure will be immensely politically damaging.
 

seabhac siulach

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An EU/UK deal is voted on by QMV, but are not a phase 2 decision and transitional arrangements potentially subject to a national veto?
Ireland would again have a veto in any moves to agree a transition period. However at that point, talks on trade will likely already have begun and Ireland may have lost maximum leverage.
 

forest

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The UK Ireland Act 1949 makes it clear RoI will never be considered a "foreign country". Unless that is changed there will be no customs on the UK side.
Any border posts will be on our side "to maintain the integrity of the single market/customs union" manned by the European Border and Coast Guard.
It will set in stone the partition, without the Unionists having to lift a finger.
There were customs on the border in some form up until the 90s
What do you think they mean by "Borders of the past"
 

automaticforthepeople

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An EU/UK deal is voted on by QMV, but are not a phase 2 decision and transitional arrangements potentially subject to a national veto?
I presume any deal has to be ratified in the Dail also. What's the bet that there'll be a fund to support Ireland and affected areas so as to be able to adjust to the new reality. Have we ever turned down money. other of course Apples!
 

Congalltee

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I presume any deal has to be ratified in the Dail also. What's the bet that there'll be a fund to support Ireland and affected areas so as to be able to adjust to the new reality. Have we ever turned down money. other of course Apples!
I would presume NI farmers can be bought into staying in the single market with CAP, peace dividends, and special trade status. I don’t get the DUP not wanting special status when it proposed a 12.5% corporate tax rate to compete with the south, it also has its own printed currency, abortion laws, ban on marriage equality, special courts, football team etc
 

Voluntary

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Why would German car dealers, French financiars, Belgian bankers etc care about 1.5m people in NI, when there’s billions at stake in trade negotiations? EU26 may currently be making soothing sounds on the border, but it’s hard to see it becoming anything other than a footnote when the real talks begin. It’s currently the this item on the agenda. It can only fall down in priority.
Do you think UK can introduce punitive custom taxes on car imports? Well, it can, but British people won't be happy with cars costing let say 20% more.
 

NMunsterman

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Have we ever used our veto?
John Redmond funked it when he had the cards - and paid the price.

Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney must ensure they do not repeat Redmond's mistake.
 

gleeful

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The UK Ireland Act 1949 makes it clear RoI will never be considered a "foreign country". Unless that is changed there will be no customs on the UK side.
Any border posts will be on our side "to maintain the integrity of the single market/customs union" manned by the European Border and Coast Guard.
It will set in stone the partition, without the Unionists having to lift a finger.
Explain so why the UK had customs posts with Ireland up to 1993?
 


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