Brexit poker: whose bluff will be called?



gleeful

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Do you think UK can introduce punitive custom taxes on car imports? Well, it can, but British people won't be happy with cars costing let say 20% more.
Unless the UK leaves the WTO they will be required by law to impose tariffs.
 

seabhac siulach

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From the Sun:
"He is too busy disrespecting 17.4million voters of a country whose billions stopped Ireland going bust as recently as 2010."

And did the Brits perhaps disrespect Ireland by going ahead with Brexit, without even considering for an instant the effect it would have on its neighbouring island?
They didn't consider Ireland at all, didn't foresee the chaos Brexit would cause with respect to the border, etc.
Only now, when Ireland forces them to consider our wishes, is there some measure of thought about their closest neighbours. Pathetic. Pathetic also to mention a one-off paltry sum of money that was given to Ireland, not as a gift but a loan at a rate of 6% (iirc). With friends like these, Ireland and the EU is well rid of them.
 

Vega1447

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From the Sun:
"He is too busy disrespecting 17.4million voters of a country whose billions stopped Ireland going bust as recently as 2010."

And did the Brits perhaps disrespect Ireland by going ahead with Brexit, without even considering for an instant the effect it would have on its neighbouring island?
They didn't consider Ireland at all, didn't foresee the chaos Brexit would cause with respect to the border, etc.
Only now, when Ireland forces them to consider our wishes, is there some measure of thought about their closest neighbours. Pathetic. Pathetic also to mention a one-off paltry sum of money that was given to Ireland, not as a gift but a loan at a rate of 6% (iirc). With friends like these, Ireland and the EU is well rid of them.
The Brits *LENT* us 3 Billion AFAIK which I think we have repaid?
 

forest

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I don't understand why the UK should have considered ireland. It was a decision for them on how to run their country. It's not their fault if we are so dependent on them. We have been independent for nearly 100 years it's time we move on
 

Vega1447

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I don't understand why the UK should have considered ireland. It was a decision for them on how to run their country. It's not their fault if we are so dependent on them. We have been independent for nearly 100 years it's time we move on
Hmm. But some of them seem to expect us to continue/resume a dependent role.
 

McSlaggart

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I don't understand why the UK should have considered ireland. It was a decision for them on how to run their country. It's not their fault if we are so dependent on them. We have been independent for nearly 100 years it's time we move on
They have held on to part of it.
 

im axeled

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1. Ireland (26) needs a trade deal more than it needs an invisible border (in purely money terms). We can delay phase 2, but can’t afford to impede it. But if border is not sorted in preliminary phase, it will fall down and off the agenda.

2. The DUP’s red line is no internal UK customs regime (even if it’s a win-win). Will they pull down May and risk Corbyn?

3. May was against Brexit, before she was for a red, white and blue Brexit. Can she afford to alienate either wing of her disfunctiinal party.

4 The EU wants lots of exit money and uninterrupted trade. But it needs to give the UK a bad deal to discourage any other exit.

5. Martin wants Varadkar to fail, so he can return to power, but a post-bad-deal Ireland will mean he’ll preside over a declining economy.

6. Corbyn wants Brexit but his party loyalists don’t. Could be risk defections to Liberals.

7. The Brits need a transition deal, as it is dawning on them that Brexit is a bad mess. But this can be vetoed by any of the 27, would they risk a bad deal from their point of view to ensure certainty?


Are countries playing with a full deck, will Ireland go all in or will bluffs be called?0
the uk are playing poker on the understanding that all the non coulered cards are wild
 

im axeled

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Hmm. But some of them seem to expect us to continue/resume a dependent role.
thats one one of their failings, thinking ireland will either let them off the hook, or ireland would leave the eu to enable the uk to have their evil way with them from here to eternity
 
D

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Do you think UK can introduce punitive custom taxes on car imports? Well, it can, but British people won't be happy with cars costing let say 20% more.
Simple solution....

[video=youtube;E4-8LgXjQbc]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4-8LgXjQbc&feature=youtu.be[/video]
 

im axeled

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who does the uk expect to pay the pensions of their expats though out southern europe, is them folk are forced to return to the uk there will be wigs on the green
 

Strawberry

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I don't understand why the UK should have considered ireland. It was a decision for them on how to run their country. It's not their fault if we are so dependent on them. We have been independent for nearly 100 years it's time we move on
Because part of Ireland is still in the UK and its fate is inextricably entwined with the rest of Ireland. Besides, they've only got one fécking land border so you'd think what happens to it would have formed part of the discussion in a referendum where so much of it was it was about controlling their borders.
 

Deadlock

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Because part of Ireland is still in the UK and its fate is inextricably entwined with the rest of Ireland. Besides, they've only got one fécking land border so you'd think what happens to it would have formed part of the discussion in a referendum where so much of it was it was about controlling their borders.
That poses an interesting question.

Will the UK:Spain border question be similarly settled in Gibraltar?
While I know that Akrotiri and Dhekelia are military bases, they are also UK sovereign areas - will the UK:Cypriot be similarly addressed?
 

Dame_Enda

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May is not just negotiating with the EU. She is also negotiating with her own party and has had to make concessions to them e.g. the Brexit Withdrawal Bill, which includes the exit date of 2019, has had the caveat of 'in accordance with Article 50' inserted into it - which opens the possibility to some that this may allow for the deadline to be extended.

Being a bookworm, I read through this during the Lisbon campaign. And it does seem that Article 50's deadline can be extended though it requires unanimous agreement among the member states.

Personally I think that if she can convince the EU she intends to leave by a certain date deal-or-no-deal, the EU will make more concessions to her than if it believes she will push back the deadline in response to tough EU negotiating.

One thing which may dilute our influence on the negotiations is the fact that the Treaty says the final deal will be approved by QMV (qualified majority voting). That means in the EU institutions we don't have a veto in that vote (which if it happens of course is a long way away). On the other hand if the Brexit treaty requires a referendum in Ireland, that could in theory give the people a veto on it. I'm personally not persuaded a referendum is legally required unless it gives powers to the EU. I suppose its possible that if the Treaty gives powers to a joint EU-UK arbitration body to settle disputes then a referendum might be constitutionally required but I would prefer not to have one unless the rights of Irish citizens are harmed. Its essential that Irish citizens' property and businesses in the UK be protected.
 
Last edited:

Titan

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1. Ireland (26) needs a trade deal more than it needs an invisible border (in purely money terms). We can delay phase 2, but can’t afford to impede it. But if border is not sorted in preliminary phase, it will fall down and off the agenda.

2. The DUP’s red line is no internal UK customs regime (even if it’s a win-win). Will they pull down May and risk Corbyn?

3. May was against Brexit, before she was for a red, white and blue Brexit. Can she afford to alienate either wing of her disfunctiinal party.

4 The EU wants lots of exit money and uninterrupted trade. But it needs to give the UK a bad deal to discourage any other exit.

5. Martin wants Varadkar to fail, so he can return to power, but a post-bad-deal Ireland will mean he’ll preside over a declining economy.

6. Corbyn wants Brexit but his party loyalists don’t. Could be risk defections to Liberals.

7. The Brits need a transition deal, as it is dawning on them that Brexit is a bad mess. But this can be vetoed by any of the 27, would they risk a bad deal from their point of view to ensure certainty?


Are countries playing with a full deck, will Ireland go all in or will bluffs be called?0
1. Both are important. The border issue cannot be fully sorted out until the issue of trade has been sorted out too, as they're both intertwined.

2. The UK will leave the customs union. As for NI and whether that will be in the customs union remains to be seen.

3. At this precise moment, she has two weeks to decide (well, really by next Friday as that's when she's in Brussels again) whether she'll hand over more money (they're not actually talking money, they're talking about the method to work out how to get to a figure) or not. If she agrees to the EU demand, she'll be gone by Christmas. So, does she call the bluff of the EU or not? We'll find out soon!

4. The EU wants to kick this whole process down the drain, somehow keeping the UK in the EU and thus not having to worry about how they will fill the enormous financial blackhole that would happen if the UK leaves the EU. They will fail on both counts.

5. Don't know.

6. Corbyn won't last. The "trip" down socialist memory lane of 70s Britain will come to an end soon for Labour. Perhaps Tony Blair might come back to "save" the day, and start a few more wars in the process...

7. What's a mess is a transition deal. The UK is in transition now, no need to prolong the mess any further!
 


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