Brexit roadmap (or snakes and ladders?!)

McTell

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No





This visual helps us see thru acres of print. Enjoy! petunia

It's possible that negotiations will get to some compromise, be approved by the council of ministers (majority of 20 of the 27 governments), be approved by the Commons and the UK law courts, and, after months of time spent, still fail to be ratified by the European Parliament.

A lot of heat will be shed before the first photon is seen in mid-2019.

The UK staying in the single market was never a flyer due to the 4 freedoms; there are lots of free trade deals being signed, and that is the logical path.
 


PBP voter

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The Brits don't have to trigger article 50 to leave.

Only second rate lawyers claim that.
 
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The Brits don't have to trigger article 50 to leave.

Only second rate lawyers claim that.
The Brother says that the Brits don't have to trigger article 50 to leave. He does be up reading the treaties of a night, with the landlady tutting that the 'lectric bill will break her, God help us and all the saints. Then he comes down for breakfast today and tells us all that he's found the loophole and wouldn't May, Hammond and all that shower in London give their eye teeth to see it. Anyway, he's off to the Embassy to put them right on the matter and there may be a few bob in it for him - enough to cover the 'lectric. The landlady is awful relieved, bless her. Oh, is that the number 23? I'd best dash...
 

PBP voter

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The Brother says that the Brits don't have to trigger article 50 to leave. He does be up reading the treaties of a night, with the landlady tutting that the 'lectric bill will break her, God help us and all the saints. Then he comes down for breakfast today and tells us all that he's found the loophole and wouldn't May, Hammond and all that shower in London give their eye teeth to see it. Anyway, he's off to the Embassy to put them right on the matter and there may be a few bob in it for him - enough to cover the 'lectric. The landlady is awful relieved, bless her. Oh, is that the number 23? I'd best dash...
I believe Ingrid Detter de Frankopan has told them. Will they listen?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ingrid_Detter_de_Frankopan

Don

Despite my best attempts, says professor of international law Ingrid Detter de Frankopan, everyone has been deaf to the painstakingly simple course for the United Kingdom to take: don’t trigger Article 50 at all.

Second rate lawyers are misleading everyone in the country by insisting that, in order to leave the European Union it is essential to “trigger” Article 50 in its entirety. This line has been swallowed whole by the government, the media and commentators. It is, however, absolute nonsense. Under international law and under Article 50 (1) itself, only notice to leave is necessary.
 

PBP voter

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Assertion and an appeal to authority. Have you no more than that? Where are the details - the specifics?
Yep. Court judgments.

There was an important judgment by the German Constitutional Court affirming the right to leave the EEC whatever the Treaties stipulate: Maastricht Urteil (BVerfGE 89, 155 of 12 October 1993). The court stated that the states are still “the masters of the treaties” and can always decide to abandon the organisation, revoking their acts of accession by a contrary unilateral denunciation. After severe criticism from many quarters of the federalist agenda, it was finally agreed to include a clause on withdrawal in the planned EU constitution. When this was not ratified the clause was incorporated in the Lisbon Treaty The withdrawal clause confirmed that the EU is not (yet) a federal state.

Again, the German Constitutional Court confirmed in the Lisbon Urteil (BVerfG, 2 BvE 2/08 of 30 June 2009) that the EU even under the Lisbon Treaty, is not (yet) a federal state. Therefore, constitutional safeguards of national identity still exist in the EU.
 

Prof Honeydew

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I believe Ingrid Detter de Frankopan has told them. Will they listen?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ingrid_Detter_de_Frankopan

Don
There's nothing stopping the Brits from unilaterally withdrawing from the EU by passing their Great Repeal Act in Parliament and waving bye-bye. However, that would leave an almighty mess of unresolved issues such as who owes what to who, who is now under which jurisdiction, who owns what, who has access to what etc etc. Sort of like walking out of the house without making any arrangements whatsoever.

Article 50 was included in the Lisbon Treaty to allow for an orderly withdrawal. There is the formal notification of withdrawal followed by continued membership for up to two years to allow for the details of withdrawal to be worked out. Once the actual withdrawal takes place, negotiations can then start on the future relations between the EU and the former member.

However, should a member state decide to unilaterally withdraw, the chances of negotiating a working relationship will be between zero and zilch until outstanding issues are sorted out. Even May, Fox, Davis and BoJo aren't that deluded as not to realise that.
 

McTell

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No
...

However, should a member state decide to unilaterally withdraw, the chances of negotiating a working relationship will be between zero and zilch until outstanding issues are sorted out. Even May, Fox, Davis and BoJo aren't that deluded as not to realise that.

Yes, it's the advice given by those who want it to fail. In 2020 the UK will still be in europe, trading with us all at some higher cost to them and us, and we can look forward to serbia and albania joining the EU before long. Instead of norway and switzerland.
 

Spirit Of Newgrange

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anyway its not really Brexit. Hopefully, its the dismantling of the whole EU.

any predictions for which country will go next ? i reckon somewhere in the South with a warm climate and massive debts.
 

Spanner Island

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I don't see there being much negotiating going on between when the UK triggers A50 and when they actually leave...

WTF are they going to talk about?

The 2 years is a period during which the UK extricates itself, at the end of which they're out and able to think about trade deals...

What's there to talk about?

I don't see it tbh.

If the EU is serious about what it says... the bottom line is that it's Brexit or no Brexit and Brexit means out and fully out... which will keep the Brexiteers happy at least.
 

Novos

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Spanner Island

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anyway its not really Brexit. Hopefully, its the dismantling of the whole EU.

any predictions for which country will go next ? i reckon somewhere in the South with a warm climate and massive debts.
Dunno... the Greeks have endured huge misery not only to stay in the EU but in the €uro as well...

I'm not sure an eagerness to bring the whole EU down is as widespread on the Continent as some like to think...
 

SilverSpurs

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The Brits don't have to trigger article 50 to leave.

Only second rate lawyers claim that.
An alternative form of Brexit would be via amending the treaties via article 48 to remove all references to the UK. This would bypass the european parliament but require unanimity from all member states.
 
T

Toowoomba

Dunno... the Greeks have endured huge misery not only to stay in the EU but in the €uro as well...

I'm not sure an eagerness to bring the whole EU down is as widespread on the Continent as some like to think...

No matter how frustrated the country may be with Brussels, a staggering 75% of Greeks are still in favour of being part of the EU. Unlike the UK, most Greeks are not frustrated with the EU in general but, rather, with the austerity measures that are seen as “imposed” by Brussels.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/13/greece-problems-with-eu-would-never-leave


Brexit is the best poster child for EU solidarity in years.

Who else would risk the pantomime rolling out in Brexitland?
 

Spanner Island

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No matter how frustrated the country may be with Brussels, a staggering 75% of Greeks are still in favour of being part of the EU. Unlike the UK, most Greeks are not frustrated with the EU in general but, rather, with the austerity measures that are seen as “imposed” by Brussels.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/13/greece-problems-with-eu-would-never-leave

Brexit is the best poster child for EU solidarity in years.

Who else would risk the pantomime rolling out in Brexitland?
I'm not convinced most Brits are really frustrated about the EU either...

I think they think they are... because decades of negativity throughout their media and their gutter press has brain washed them into believing EU = Bad. UK = Good.

It will be interesting to see how patient they are in the next few years if things go pear-shaped and they can't blame the EU for any of it... although I'm sure they'll try to... particularly Brexiteers (I've a suspicion that campaign is already underway by BoJo & Co.)

UK voters have voted for whatever comes... good and/or bad.
 
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I don't see there being much negotiating going on between when the UK triggers A50 and when they actually leave...

WTF are they going to talk about?

The 2 years is a period during which the UK extricates itself, at the end of which they're out and able to think about trade deals...

What's there to talk about?

I don't see it tbh.

If the EU is serious about what it says... the bottom line is that it's Brexit or no Brexit and Brexit means out and fully out... which will keep the Brexiteers happy at least.
The relocation of EU institutions currently based in the UK?
The disposition of current UK MEPs and the resolution of any pension rights, relocation costs due?
The matter of continued UK contributions to preapproved budgets extending into the future?
The refdrafting of UK-specific legislation ?
The nature of UK engagement with other European bodies?
Timescales and interim measures for multiple treaty withdrawals?
Schedules and timescales for transfer of powers?
Disposition of UK FTEs working in unelected positions in the EU?
Agreements regarding the preservation of existing industrial standards which are critical to trade?
Ownership and management of these standards?
Implications to fishing grounds and other territorial concerns?
Boundaries - hard or soft?
Disposition of UK-born workers and residents of the EU and the opposite?
Establishing future UK-EU interfaces, their modality and practice?
Discussion of mutually important issues such as defence, pan-European health issues etc?
Redrawing ATC and other travel protocols?
Joint concerns such as Airbus?
Creating a framework for UK-EU travel and vice versa?
Agreements on state subsidised industries and how to manage that?

That's just a start. Multiply all of the above by 27, by the way.
 

Erudite Caveman

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Most important thing on that graphic is the bit that mentions the possibility of an extension of negotiations beyond the 2 years.
 


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