BREXIT: the general forum (Second Thread)


derryman

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Most people isn't interested in manifestos, though. Videos are much more attractive. I include myself in that judgement, by the way.

Edit:

*chuckle*
Most people aren't, surely?
And only doing this because you are the grammar policeman.
 

sondagefaux

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We will have to change your user handle to Sherlock...:smile:
I just felt that it wasn't the usual glib Telstar one-liner, so I copied it into Google.

Lo and behold...

I wonder how many other Telstar posts would produce a similar result if copied into Google?

On the other hand, who really gives a toss?
 

im axeled

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The backstop applies only under the May deal, which is dead in the water. A no-deal situation has no backstop.
if the uk leaves, then deciedes it needs a deal with the eu, the first thing the eu will say is what about the backstop
 

Volatire

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if the uk leaves, then deciedes it needs a deal with the eu, the first thing the eu will say is what about the backstop
At this stage most sane Brits are thinking Fück the EU and Fück the backstop.
 

Plebian

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The backstop applies only under the May deal, which is dead in the water. A no-deal situation has no backstop.
I don't know if that's true. IIRC the UK has already given a legal commitment to the Backstop which stands outside of the WA deal. It's a grey area.

An Irish border backstop installed in the case of a no-deal Brexit would continue to apply "unless and until it is superseded" by a new agreement, UK government legal advice says.

The position statement released on Monday afternoon also said Britain faced paying extra money to the European Union if the implementation period after the UK leaves in March has to be extended.


The 43-page Legal Position On The Withdrawal Agreement was published after the UK's government lost a parliamentary vote calling for the full legal advice to be released.
No-deal Brexit Irish border backstop would continue to apply 'unless and until it is superseded', UK government legal advice says - Irish Mirror Online
 

Franzoni

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some bull sch1tting here
katya adler on Twitter:

another answer here
katya adler on Twitter:
Adler must be on the píss in Brussels....the Brits have never accepted our independence and think we're going to roll over and give in as will the EU to save their arse...........

Even Barclay their own Brexit Sec has admitted it's more than likely going to begin the re-unification process nearly 100 years since the WoI.....whoever is in power when that happens will have written themselves a page in the history books and that's a biggie for any Taoiseach .......
 

derryman

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Franzoni

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I have always thought the backstop was for a no deal scenario. But recently the common perception seemed to be that it was only for the WA.
My understanding is the backstop is only if the timeline on the 'future relationship' talks run over the two years after the WA is approved that NI would basicially come under the EU umbrella...

The DUP started whinging so May proposed a UK wide backstop.....
 

midlander12

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Adler must be on the píss in Brussels....the Brits have never accepted our independence and think we're going to roll over and give in as will the EU to save their arse...........

Even Barclay their own Brexit Sec has admitted it's more than likely going to begin the re-unification process nearly 100 years since the WoI.....whoever is in power when that happens will have written themselves a page in the history books and that's a biggie for any Taoiseach .......
But that's not what she said:-

'Ireland is getting VERY nervous about ‘no deal’ as would hit trade hard but PM Varadkar is in weak position politically at home. A move by him to weaken the #Brexit backstop (even if he were tempted) would NOT go down well'

He’s well clear in the polls and all the other parties are united in support for the backstop, the only risk for him is if he capitulates to May. Fine Gael is arguably the most Anglophile party in Ireland, Micheal Martin as Taoiseach would likely take a harder line...

3 replies 3 retweets 51 likes
Reply 3 Retweet 3 Like 51

katya adler


@BBCkatyaadler
Jan 11
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That is what I was trying to say. Clearly clumsily as tweet has been widely misunderstood. I wrote it bc there are many in UK who think Ireland should back away from backstop but I was attempting to explain why LV won’t. My tweet after also talks about Good Friday Agreement
 

Prof Honeydew

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Tony Connelly summarises Brexit and the Brits since December in a long revealing article. Considering TC was the conduit used to bounce May into proposing the Withdrawal Agreement to her Cabinet in November, it's pretty certain he wouldn't have written it without having had detailed confirmation from the top decision-makers in the EU.

Brexit: 2019 - the year of unlikely outcomes
The EU were astonished by how cluelessly and arrogantly May behaved at the December Summit.
"It was kind of extraordinary," recalls one senior Irish figure. "There was a general incredulity at the way they (the Brits) approached it and what their asks were.
"They went into the meeting asking for things that were patently not deliverable and as a consequence quite irritated people. And they couldn’t offer any credible assurance that even if they could be delivered that it would deliver [support for the Withdrawal Agreement] on the other side.
"Even though it’s a mess, we’re all trained to assume somewhere deep down there’s a plan, even if it doesn’t look obvious. But nobody can figure out what that plan is."
It was, indeed, a demoralising experience for the Irish side. Theresa May was now trash-talking the backstop so much that Dublin was beginning to wonder about her commitment to what the backstop was supposed to achieve.
Then, after having been told to where to go with herself, she compounded her difficulties by falsely claiming she'd won major concessions from the EU. (Note. These lies have resurfaced again last week with stories leaking into the British media about the EU caving into British demands for the Britain-wide backstop).
Having been given a less than bountiful Christmas gift by the EU27, Mrs May went back to the House of Commons on 17 December and appeared to oversell what she had got, again to the amazement of Dublin.
The prime minister read out each of paragraph from the summit conclusions into the record of the Commons, declaring that "as formal conclusions from a European Council, these commitments have legal status and should be welcomed".
The latest story emanating from Downing Street, extending Article 50 beyond the 29th of March, has been trashed by the EU.
The Telegraph report that the UK would seek an extension of Article 50 was greeted with surprise and suspicion by EU officials and diplomats.
"It seems like a ghost," says one senior official. "Everybody sees it, but no one has seen it when you ask them. It’s a funny, elusive thing. It keeps reappearing. But I’ve not heard anyone discuss it. I’ve asked around. Everyone says no."
The shenanigans that have continued in Westminster since Christmas have left the EU even more pessimistic of ever reaching an accommodation with the Brits.
In general, the mood in Brussels remains similar to that which prevailed throughout 2018. Officials view the UK as a twin-headed beast: one a rabid, convulsed parliament, the other a beleaguered government that has lost control.
And there's no way the EU will alter anything in the Withdrawal Agreement to suit the Brits.
Yet, it is inconceivable at this juncture that the EU will reopen the Irish Protocol. Indeed, at the EU ambassadors meeting on Wednesday it was agreed by member states that Ireland, Spain and Cyprus would all be guaranteed a "place in the room" when the specialised committee under the overall Joint Committee between the UK and EU, envisaged under the Withdrawal Agreement, and which pertain to each of those countries’ protocols, were to take effect.
And it looks like the EU is resigning itself to a no-deal Brexit is the now the most likely outcome.
"There's a feeling that there’s a whole universe of possibilities," says one bewildered EU official, "and that every single outcome looks very, or moderately, unlikely. No outcome looks very likely. But it has to be one of those outcomes."
 

shiel

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At this stage most sane Brits are thinking Fück the EU and Fück the backstop.
That is just a very elegant expression of total contempt for fellow European citizens and epitomises the racist mindset of the Brexiteers.
 
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Tony Connelly summarises Brexit and the Brits since December in a long revealing article. Considering TC was the conduit used to bounce May into proposing the Withdrawal Agreement to her Cabinet in November, it's pretty certain he wouldn't have written it without having had detailed confirmation from the top decision-makers in the EU.

Brexit: 2019 - the year of unlikely outcomes
The EU were astonished by how cluelessly and arrogantly May behaved at the December Summit.


Then, after having been told to where to go with herself, she compounded her difficulties by falsely claiming she'd won major concessions from the EU. (Note. These lies have resurfaced again last week with stories leaking into the British media about the EU caving into British demands for the Britain-wide backstop).


The latest story emanating from Downing Street, extending Article 50 beyond the 29th of March, has been trashed by the EU.


The shenanigans that have continued in Westminster since Christmas have left the EU even more pessimistic of ever reaching an accommodation with the Brits.


And there's no way the EU will alter anything in the Withdrawal Agreement to suit the Brits.


And it looks like the EU is resigning itself to a no-deal Brexit is the now the most likely outcome.

"Mrs May explained to the Taoiseach that she needed something to get the DUP back on board on the calculation that if the DUP could back the deal, they could drag a significant chunk of recalcitrant Tories back with them."

I ************************ you not .... unbelievable stuff. Pure poison.
 

Plebian

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I have always thought the backstop was for a no deal scenario. But recently the common perception seemed to be that it was only for the WA.
I suppose it hangs on whether the UK-EU Agreement of December 2017 on the Irish Backstop can be dumped by the UK, or if the consequences of tearing up that deal are too much for the UK to stomach. There's a Hard-Brexit where everyone tries to patch over differences and then there's the possibility of a Hard-Brexit where cooperation between the EU and UK almost ceases to exist.

.The EU’s position remains that, without an agreement on the backstop, there will be no withdrawal agreement and no transition period after Brexit. This scenario has become known as a “hard Brexit” or referred to as Britain “crashing out” of the European Union
Brexit: What is the ‘backstop’ agreement and why does it matter?
 

Prof Honeydew

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But that's not what she said:-

'Ireland is getting VERY nervous about ‘no deal’ as would hit trade hard but PM Varadkar is in weak position politically at home. A move by him to weaken the #Brexit backstop (even if he were tempted) would NOT go down well'

He’s well clear in the polls and all the other parties are united in support for the backstop, the only risk for him is if he capitulates to May. Fine Gael is arguably the most Anglophile party in Ireland, Micheal Martin as Taoiseach would likely take a harder line...

3 replies 3 retweets 51 likes
Reply 3 Retweet 3 Like 51

katya adler


@BBCkatyaadler
Jan 11
More
That is what I was trying to say. Clearly clumsily as tweet has been widely misunderstood. I wrote it bc there are many in UK who think Ireland should back away from backstop but I was attempting to explain why LV won’t. My tweet after also talks about Good Friday Agreement
Agree with you there, Midlander. Katya Adler was pointing out the obvious when saying Varadkar would be dead meat if he gave an inch on the backstop. She was writing to a Brit audience (in fact, mainly to a British media audience) who haven't quite grasped the significance of the backstop in Irish politics - not just from the economic and political consequences of re-imposing a hard internal border on Ireland but also the sense of achievement from having assembled enough support to prevent the Brits bullying us for once.

It's no surprise the controversy was kicked off by an attention-seeker like Brian Lucey who, if I recall, was warning us not to long ago not to push the Brits too hard on the backstop.

Actually, Adler would be regarded as as the best-informed British journalist on the Europe beat, not just on Irleand but also on the other nations (her grasp of German, Austrian and French politics is exceptional for someone working in the Anglophone media) and she's far more likely to dig behind the stories leaking from Downing Street and the Foreign Office than her colleagues.
 
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