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BREXIT: the general forum (Second Thread)

raetsel

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Anyone that thinks the DUP can come on board is simply ignorant of of the history and ethos of the DUP.
Not entirely sure you are right on this. There is one precedent for the DUP doing a U turn, when the gun was to their head of course. They said they'd never share power with Sinn Fein. They did, much to the disgust of people like Jim Allister.
I suspect that the DUP will do another U turn if some face-saving word formula can be devised to alleviate their embarrassment, at least in the eyes of their own more gullible supporters, and if they know that enough of the ERG MPs weigh in behind them to get the deal over the line. The most memorable posturing about "blood red lines" is always going to be associated with Arlene Foster by the way, but the real DUP leader at Westminster is Dodds. He may calculate that Foster is already doomed as a result of the RHI Inquiry and that she shoulder the blame from party hardliners. She's a handy scapegoat. :)
 


Mickeymac

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Jim Shannon was on LBC yesterday evening and said in no uncertain terms that regardless of DUP talks with May, he personally would never vote for the wa.

The DUP coming to May’s rescue is for the birds. It’s indicative of Tory cluelessness on the north that they think DUP support is a possibility.

In short Marcella, you have truly got it😂
 

Mickeymac

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Not entirely sure you are right on this. There is one precedent for the DUP doing a U turn, when the gun was to their head of course. They said they'd never share power with Sinn Fein. They did, much to the disgust of people like Jim Allister.
I suspect that the DUP will do another U turn if some face-saving word formula can be devised to alleviate their embarrassment, at least in the eyes of their own more gullible supporters, and if they know that enough of the ERG MPs weigh in behind them to get the deal over the line. The most memorable posturing about "blood red lines" is always going to be associated with Arlene Foster by the way, but the real DUP leader at Westminster is Dodds. He may calculate that Foster is already doomed as a result of the RHI Inquiry and that she shoulder the blame from party hardliners. She's a handy scapegoat. :)

Ian Mor and McGuinness was a totally different ballgame Raetsel, apples and oranges as a matter of fact, DUP heads are so far up their asses these days they consider power sharing something well below their kingmaker status, enjoy their phukk ups while it lasts sir.:LOL:

Btw, Brick has been leader of that cretinous crowd for quite some time.
 

owedtojoy

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Not entirely sure you are right on this. There is one precedent for the DUP doing a U turn, when the gun was to their head of course. They said they'd never share power with Sinn Fein. They did, much to the disgust of people like Jim Allister.
I suspect that the DUP will do another U turn if some face-saving word formula can be devised to alleviate their embarrassment, at least in the eyes of their own more gullible supporters, and if they know that enough of the ERG MPs weigh in behind them to get the deal over the line. The most memorable posturing about "blood red lines" is always going to be associated with Arlene Foster by the way, but the real DUP leader at Westminster is Dodds. He may calculate that Foster is already doomed as a result of the RHI Inquiry and that she shoulder the blame from party hardliners. She's a handy scapegoat. :)
I think the DUP realise that with the May faction of the Tories (like with Hammond), they are regarded as poison, and with the Brexiteer faction they are seen as useful temporarily but will be dumped overboard as soon as it is feasible.

The DUP do want a way out, but it remains to be seen if there is one.

I think a sizeable number of Labour Brexiteers (like Kate Hoey, double figures) voted against Corbyn's Amendment, so they may be capable of voting for the deal in place of the core of the ERG.

But it is on a wing and a prayer. If May's deal fails for the 3rd time, it is OUT. The Benn Amendment taking control will probably pass.
 

Mickeymac

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I think the DUP realise that with the May faction of the Tories (like with Hammond), they are regarded as poison, and with the Brexiteer faction they are seen as useful temporarily but will be dumped overboard as soon as it is feasible.

The DUP do want a way out, but it remains to be seen if there is one.

I think a sizeable number of Labour Brexiteers (like Kate Hoey, double figures) voted against Corbyn's Amendment, so they may be capable of voting for the deal in place of the core of the ERG.

But it is on a wing and a prayer. If May's deal fails for the 3rd time, it is OUT. The Benn Amendment taking control will probably pass.

The elephant in the room appears to have been ignored in all of this, Scotland, the Sic counties voted to remain and recent polls show Wales in the same exit boat from the UK.

Surely this can not be ignored any longer by London.
 

livingstone

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I think the DUP realise that with the May faction of the Tories (like with Hammond), they are regarded as poison, and with the Brexiteer faction they are seen as useful temporarily but will be dumped overboard as soon as it is feasible.

The DUP do want a way out, but it remains to be seen if there is one.

I think a sizeable number of Labour Brexiteers (like Kate Hoey, double figures) voted against Corbyn's Amendment, so they may be capable of voting for the deal in place of the core of the ERG.

But it is on a wing and a prayer. If May's deal fails for the 3rd time, it is OUT. The Benn Amendment taking control will probably pass.
The DUP got particularly savaged by NI businesses on Wednesday when the no deal plans for the border were announced. Even typically unionist-heavy groups like the UFU have been scathing. Now, the DUP have been getting pressure from business since November - but never with quite such intensity, and never so firmly from farmers who would be most hit by the no deal border policy.

Ultimately the DUP are facing into elections in two months and so have a choice: face into it with the impacts of no deal hanging around their neck; or go in with Brexit (close to) done and dusted with a deal, a series of domestic commitments from the UK Government and probably a wedge of cash to trumpet for infrastructure etc. The tone here is not accidental - they have spent the last couple of days looking for a ladder to climb down.

Now, will all 10 back the deal? Maybe not. Hard to see Wilson and Shannon backing it. But the point is not just about the ten - it is about giving cover to Tory backbenchers who had tied themselves in knots over the backstop the cover to climb down also (good enough for the DUP, good enough for the Tories).

Add to that that if the vote looks like being close enough, a few more Labour MPs from leave constituencies might come over the line. The first two votes were so clearly going to be lost that there was no point in Labour MPs breaking the whip and incurring the wrath of backing a 'Tory Brexit': their votes would have made no difference. But in a close vote, those MPs facing a choice between a deal and moving on, or no deal (for now) and either crashing out, or a lengthy delay, might well take the flak to get it over the line. Not many in this camp - maybe 15 or 20. But that could be enough (and decisive).
 
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fifilawe

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The Brexiteers/DUP/etc are very keen to leave EU.Well, the EU should let them , provided they can't have their cake and Eat it.My view is give the UK a decade outside the block and then let the population put up with the consequences for a decade.The test will be economic not nationalism,will the average person be better off in the UK compared to the average person in the EU block?Will the standard of living be about the same?Will the cost of living be about the same.?
I always maintained a decade outside the block should be enough time to convince the greater majority unlikke the 2016 referendum which was a "jump into the unknown".
 

Ireniall

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There is a high degree of truth in that - but a lot more would have been achieved by the UK remaining in the EU and helping to reshape the overall direction.
Brexit was a case of it's my ball and I'm going home - now you are sitting at home in your bedroom looking online for new friends in far flung places when the kids next door play outside your window - kinda sad.
Yes -it often struck me as akin to that-only they've had to learn that they don't actually own the ball and they have to stomp off in fuming embarrassment while the game carries on behind them. I actually witnessed this in my own childhood
 

Mickeymac

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Brits decided to leave the EU with a plan, most folk realise that now, my question is .......what will it cost them (if accepted) back into the EU if Brexit goes shitshape ....I bet they don’t know lol
 

Ireniall

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It would - and it is a reason to regret the UK departure, because once they’ve gone France and Germany will ride roughshod over the rest of us. But they made their choice, and that is a choice all democrats must respect. What should concern us more - if we can put aside our anglophobia - is the sheer impossibility of extricating ourselves from the EU should circumstances ever favour this option, and this should be a consideration for all member states in shaping the future of the EU.
If circumstances favour our departure from the EU it is quite clear that there will be no problem whatever in leaving. What the British are discovering is that it is completely different if you attempt to leave when circumstances fall very short of being favourable. The formation of a huge economic area in Europe was always something that the British could not ignore even if it never joined the EU. It has been such an extraordinary success that the circumstances realistically will never be right to leave and you will suffer a serious and on-going economic hit by choosing such a path.

In our case the question might arise if our CT rate was forcibly increased to match a common EU rate and which had the effect of drastically reducing the amount of FDI we were getting. Even in such circumstances there would be no good reason for MNCs who were already set up here to leave in favour of another EU country so we would still have to sacrifice a huge part of our economy in order to leave and we would be doing this because we would know that membership was not going to be the bonanza that it had been before. I would hope that we would, to say the least, make a better job of assessing the true situation than the Brexiteers have managed. A nation can probably survive having the odd delusion or miscalculation -it becomes a serious problem though when this informs your whole policy.
 

Cnoc a Leassa

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The ERG script for the end of the first Act of the Brexit show called for the EU to perform its traditional blink routine.
Last evening Tommy Gorman rewrote that script. The last scene will now feature a DUP jump followed by an ERG skip and hop.
A nod and a wink from EU will be the signal for the ending of the first act.
 
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Surkov

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If the EU decides that only a 2 year delay/extension is possible... what would happen?

Imagine another 2 years of it...
 

Marcella

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Brits decided to leave the EU with a plan, most folk realise that now, my question is .......what will it cost them (if accepted) back into the EU if Brexit goes shitshape ....I bet they don’t know lol
They’d never get back their rebate and they’d have to sign up to the euro as a minimum.
 
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raetsel

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If the EU decides that only a 2 year delay/extension is possible... what would happen?

Imagine another 2 years of it...
I am hoping that the EU refuse to agree to that. If they do then the most likely scenario is that May will hang on beyond March 29, and then soon after, give up and resign. Her successor will almost inevitably be a 'no deal' Brexiter who will then ignore the Parliamentary vote on Thursday and just press ahead with preparations to leave without a deal. That will be a terrible outcome for Ireland economically, both north and south.
 
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livingstone

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They’d never get back their rebate and they’d have to sign up to the euro as a minimum.
They'll only do that if there's no obvious way in which a short extension would get a deal over the line. And a short extension would only get a deal over the line if it has been approved by Parliament and there just needs to be a couple of months to get the legislation through. The only other circumstance is if May indicates that she will fully accept Labour's proposals and whip the Tories to support them. Those changes would be easy to negotiate with the EU in a few weeks, so the EU would probably grant a short extension in that case.

But if that's not in place, the the UK has a choice: a long delay to facilitate a game changer (GE or referendum) or no deal on 29 March.
 
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Surkov

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I am hoping that the EU refuse to agree to that. If they do then the most likely scenario is that May will hang on beyond March 29, and then soon after, give up and resign. Her successor will almost inevitably be a 'no deal' Brexiter who will then ignore the Parliamentary vote on Thursday and just press ahead with preparations to leave without a deal. That will be a terrible outcome for Ireland economically, both north and south.
If there is another vote on May's dreadful deal and she loses yet again, I think a general election will almost immediately be called. Labour will suffer very significant losses and the new Independent Party will be come nothing but a memory.

Then what?
 

Talk Back

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They'll only do that if there's no obvious way in which a short extension would get a deal over the line. And a short extension would only get a deal over the line if it has been approved by Parliament and there just needs to be a couple of months to get the legislation through. The only other circumstance is if May indicates that she will fully accept Labour's proposals and whip the Tories to support them. Those changes would be easy to negotiate with the EU in a few weeks, so the EU would probably grant a short extension in that case.

But if that's not in place, the the UK has a choice: a long delay to facilitate a game changer (GE or referendum) or no deal on 29 March.
Patriotic Irish people do not want a game-changer - the status quo of the UK staying in the EU is useless as far as speeding up the reunification of our people. our country, and ending the occupation of part of our country.

We want the backstop for Ireland as a whole. Let Britain go off after the deal is law and do its "global" trade deals, and leave the occupied 6 counties of Ireland in the EU CU and SM.

The name of the game is to end the national shame of partition and restore the territorial integrity of Ireland - even a UK crash out would be better than the status quo as far as speeding up the reunification of our people. our country, and ending the occupation of part of our country.

Irish people will be the VOTING majority in the occupied 6 counties by 2022, mere months from now. A hard partition line in the north coupled with a majority of angry Irish people taken out of the EU will act as an inducement to vote for the reunification of our country, AND to rejoin the EU.

Also A backstop for Ireland as a whole or the UK crashing out will piss Scotland off and also break-up the UK.

To clarify - the status quo of the UK staying in the EU is the worst option for patriotic Irish people.
 

shiel

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Patriotic Irish people do not want a game-changer - the status quo of the UK staying in the EU is useless as far as speeding up the reunification of our people. our country, and ending the occupation of part of our country.

We want the backstop for Ireland as a whole. Let Britain go off after the deal is law and do its "global" trade deals, and leave the occupied 6 counties of Ireland in the EU CU and SM.

The name of the game is to end the national shame of partition and restore the territorial integrity of Ireland - even a UK crash out would be better than the status quo as far as speeding up the reunification of our people. our country, and ending the occupation of part of our country.

Irish people will be the VOTING majority in the occupied 6 counties by 2022, mere months from now. A hard partition line in the north coupled with a majority of angry Irish people taken out of the EU will act as an inducement to vote for the reunification of our country, AND to rejoin the EU.

Also A backstop for Ireland as a whole or the UK crashing out will piss Scotland off and also break-up the UK.

To clarify - the status quo of the UK staying in the EU is the worst option for patriotic Irish people.
Only if you want to add the economic and political problems caused by uniting the North with the South to the economic and political problems caused by a no deal Brexit happening at the same time would that be desireable.

Lets deal with one problem at a time.
 

RasherHash

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I agree that the bigger countries will have greater influence, but I am referring to an influence beyond that which might be so accounted for by member size:whistle:. And that is something we witness with all groups, whereby certain individuals or sub-groupings rise to the top and attract all effective power to themselves. And I would suggest that it would be outlandishly naive to suggest this this phenomenon has not maninfested itself within the EU.
You're right, it goes something like this, Germany is the strongest economy but is controlled by France because, well...WW2 and the holocaust (the Germans are uniquely guilty of this sort of thing and can't control themselves, which the Germans - I.e. Merkel - acknowledge and avoid asserting themselves at all costs).
 

shiel

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You're right, it goes something like this, Germany is the strongest economy but is controlled by France because, well...WW2 and the holocaust (the Germans are uniquely guilty of this sort of thing and can't control themselves, which the Germans - I.e. Merkel - acknowledge and avoid asserting themselves at all costs).
The Brexiteer London media reckon the EU is dominated by Germany and call the EU 'The Fourth Reich'.

This is despite the fact that Germany with 80 million people has the same voting weight as the UK with 60 million people.
 


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