BREXIT: the general forum (Second Thread)

Gin Soaked

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EVERYTHING we have seen in the last 24 hours is an ACT.

'I'm leaving you, sad loser!'
[ but I'm hanging round to be molested if you bring me flowers and jewelry]

The parameters of a deal are becoming clear. They get a sun-set clause on the customs union for NI- eg in twenty years time, NI can hold a referendum, one man one vote, to give five years notice on the customs union.

Boris gets a scalp ( really a toupee with alopecia) , which might just save the Johnson premiership ( the only real British aim of the whole exercise); but do remember, he can't agree to this until 10:59pm on 31 October.

( Only the complete crazies, ie ex-forces, in the HOC, will prefer to be in the position where the next Trump tweet cancels their trade deal with the USA.)
So is that the WA with NI in customs union with a very, very long tail before a NI only referendum on leaving the CU or whatever the GFA coughs up?

Not terrible. Will P1ss off the DUP.

But whither tax avoidance?
 


galteeman

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Todays piece by William Hague, link, William Hague: 'There's only one way Ireland, the DUP, and Johnson can all get what they want' - Independent.ie is a classic piece, encapsulating the theme of why cant the Irish be reasonable with a subtext of the “white man’s burden”.
For the Tory’s and Boris it about managing their electoral prospects.
For the DUP its about their self-destruction of their reason for existence and the need to agree that any future departure from single market requires the agreement of both nationalist and loyalist communities.
For Ireland its about the economic consequences so therefore we have to work with London on how to make a customs arrangement work or alternatively take Theresa May's deal but add a time limit on the backstop.

Based on this contribution by Hague, I can only guess that he, like Rip Van Winkle of old, has been absent from the Brexit debate for the last few years.
Yeah that was in the Torygraph too and it's reads like a reasonable article but it makes no mention on what the length of time limit is and what happens when the time limit is up?
 

galteeman

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EVERYTHING we have seen in the last 24 hours is an ACT.

'I'm leaving you, sad loser!'
[ but I'm hanging round to be molested if you bring me flowers and jewelry]

The parameters of a deal are becoming clear. They get a sun-set clause on the customs union for NI- eg in twenty years time, NI can hold a referendum, one man one vote, to give five years notice on the customs union.

Boris gets a scalp ( really a toupee with alopecia) , which might just save the Johnson premiership ( the only real British aim of the whole exercise); but do remember, he can't agree to this until 10:59pm on 31 October.

( Only the complete crazies, ie ex-forces, in the HOC, will prefer to be in the position where the next Trump tweet cancels their trade deal with the USA.)
Can't see them accepting 20 years but perhaps 5-10 years.
If there is going to be a referendum at that point we may as well suggest it be on a full United Ireland and then we could go all out to lay the foundations and convince the people of NI.
 

galteeman

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The parties with the biggest difficulty with a NI backstop solution are the Remainers of all hues of conviction in the HoC. With May’s deal, they had the option of being close to Single Market and Customs thanks to the UK wide backstop. With a NI specific solution, they will lose that cover. They must now decide on accepting May’s deal or face a continuation of the Cummings / Johnson crisis and disaster approach. A simple choice.
Bojo doesn't need to get it past the HOC really. If he gets a deal with the EU and fails in the Commons he can take the extension till January and run his election campaign based on that deal and leave in the new year and it's a hell of a lot safer than running on a No Deal platform.
 

galteeman

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Everything points to a deal. They allow the full NI only backstop in return for a time limit of 5 years minimum with a referendum at the end of it to solve the NI consent issue.
It's not ideal for us and risks losing that referendum but I suppose you can't have everything.
Or we could roll the dice and let Bojo have an election and see what happens.
 

Dame_Enda

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Prorogation 2 has just happened. Video of it below. House returns on Oct 14th.


 

Nebuchadnezzar

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Can't see them accepting 20 years but perhaps 5-10 years.
If there is going to be a referendum at that point we may as well suggest it be on a full United Ireland and then we could go all out to lay the foundations and convince the people of NI.
I think any notion of a United Ireland referendum within the mid term(ie 5-10 years) is a very bad idea. A narrow vote in favour of UI is potentially very dangerous. Unity referendum should be off the agenda for at least several decades.
 

galteeman

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I think any notion of a United Ireland referendum within the mid term(ie 5-10 years) is a very bad idea. A narrow vote in favour of UI is potentially very dangerous. Unity referendum should be off the agenda for at least several decades.
If a narrow majority are in favour how can you deny them a referendum?
 

Nebuchadnezzar

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If a narrow majority are in favour how can you deny them a referendum?
Yes indeed, so don’t have that referendum until it is clear that a substantial majority will favour it. This BREXIT catastrophe is a prime example of a bad decision to hold a referendum.
 

Volatire

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Putin, Trump and Johnson need to hold a summit meeting to decide how to deal with the EU.

teheran.jpg
 

Volatire

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Yes indeed, so don’t have that referendum until it is clear that a substantial majority will favour it. This BREXIT catastrophe is a prime example of a bad decision to hold a referendum.
Probably true, but it is imperative to honour the result nonetheless.
 

wombat

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If a narrow majority are in favour how can you deny them a referendum?
You can't but a referendum with a narrow majority in favour of removing the border is not the same as having a united Ireland
 

CatullusV

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You can't but a referendum with a narrow majority in favour of removing the border is not the same as having a united Ireland
Quite a few votes worldwide rely on super majorities. Holland is one such country which seeks, IIRC, a 60% vote in favour of significant change. It seems sensible.
 

Nebuchadnezzar

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Putin, Trump and Johnson need to hold a summit meeting to decide how to deal with the EU.

teheran.jpg
I think Borris would have to ask Winston’s ghost to leave that room....

“Mutual aid in the economic field and joint military defence must inevitably be accompanied step by step with a parallel policy of closer political unity.”

“Britain is an integral part of Europe, and we mean to play our part in the revival of her prosperity and greatness.”

Winston Churchill, The Hague, 1948.
 

Volatire

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I think Borris would have to ask Winston’s ghost to leave that room....

“Mutual aid in the economic field and joint military defence must inevitably be accompanied step by step with a parallel policy of closer political unity.”

“Britain is an integral part of Europe, and we mean to play our part in the revival of her prosperity and greatness.”

Winston Churchill, The Hague, 1948.
There is one r in Boris and Sir Winston was not a founder of the EU.
 


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