Britain after Brexit: the dangers of a power in decline

Drogheda445

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Joined
Feb 13, 2012
Messages
6,449
The Brexit debacle over the last two years has become so familiar and drawn out to most of us that the extent of its ramifications might not appear all that obvious. The gradualness of the process means that for a world that is used to instant and rapid developments, the effects of Brexit don’t appear to have amounted to much thus far (even though it hasn’t happened yet), with many regarding any talk of economic contraction as fear-mongering.

But make no mistake, all forecasts for the UK’s economic future post-Brexit are grim. I don’t need to elaborate on this, it has been discussed at length in the main Brexit thread.

The point of this thread is to look at Britain’s political future, which is looking increasingly and worryingly turbulent. These are just some of the factors to be aware of, and which pose a danger down the line:

1) How much it has already polarised British society. I’ve spoken to a number of Brits (mostly English) since the vote and the sheer emotion that this issue has already unleashed is remarkable, understandly so for many people. This is quite clearly the most divisive issue British society has faced since the days of Thatcher at least, probably much longer. Families and friends falling out over this are not unheard of. It doesn’t bode well for when the effects of the process actually begin to bite.

2) How incompetent and dangerous the current government is. The current British cabinet has proven to be universally incapable of putting forward clear proposals for Brexit, or plan for its outcome. That much is well know. In addition to this, however, Brexit has propelled previously fringe or fanatical Tories to the spotlight, politicians who up until a few years ago would have been derided and mocked, but whose extremism now wields far more influence over the government than it did previously. Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, and Jacob Rees-Mogg being the most identifiable. The last one in particular demonstrates just how far politics has plummeted in the UK; that an antediluvian, bumbling parish-pump toff, who wouldn’t look out of place in a Blackadder sketch and who had up until recently been most well known for filibustering about Somerset eggs and creating a time zone for his own constituency, is being given any consideration for UK leadership in a crisis of this magnitude is catastrophically terrible. The results of such incompetence mixed with extremism will only multiply over time IMO.

3) A ridiculously inflated national image. Some British people today are frankly even more unaware or ambivalent to their egregious colonial past than those during the past century, and far more so than other European countries. At least with France and Germany the extent of their jingoism and self delusion was made clear to them in bloody terms during the Second World War and the Algerian War, and they at least appear to be more circumspect about it. It also means that the British have never had to confront the reality of their decline as an individual power. This only encourages delusions regarding Brexit, but also arrogance as regards other countries. Many Brexiteers exhibit that classically British view of themselves as aloof or above feckless continentals, as the negotiation process has demonstrated.

4) The fanaticism of Brexiteers. To say that advocates of Brexit are fixated on their cause is an understatement. It has become cult like, a sacred cause which should never be questioned or diluted. All of the issues when pointed out are ignored either because they are convinced that “experts” are lying to them (as in the case of Britain’s economy) or because the issues raised are too trivial in the English-centred radar to be worth arguing over (such as the border in Ireland).

When Brexit finally does take place, and reality sets in, rather than backtracking, it is more likely that ardent Brexiteers will simply retreat further into their shells and seek new scapegoats to blame. This is already taking place; many of them blame the British government individually for the debacle so far, (rather than, you know, the fcking affair in general) and of course the ever-malignant EU. They have banked too much on this cause and they have too much pride to admit any sort of defeat. “Sovereignty”, that great vacuous catch-all term, is what matters (never mind that the vision thus far for robust British sovereignty has been pandering to Trump’s America), all other mortal considerations come second.

There is a real danger here, and I am deeply worried that within a few years the fallout from this will shake faith in British institutions to their core. Extremism has been propelled to the centre of British politics, and the arrogance the current administration has demonstrated to its neighbours would make you worry what it would be like under even more extreme leadership. May’s government also having proven its utter incompetence, you would worry what sort of passions and instability could be unleashed in the future if the calibre of cabinet doesn’t improve.

We in Ireland should be very concerned about where this is headed. Geopolitically it is always wise to be wary of a power in decline, and as immediate neighbours we should be most attentive. The British, or at least the extreme part of it, will not quietly accept their reduced status and prospects in a post Brexit world. Given how divided their society is over this issue even before it has formally begun, and how much bad feeling will be created when the sh!t inevitably hits the fan, I don’t think it will simply be a case of transitioning to lesser power status; it will be very very turbulent at the very least, and possibly could be far worse. Something very ugly is lurking down the road IMO.

Thoughts?
 
Last edited:


between the bridges

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Joined
Sep 21, 2011
Messages
44,933
The Brexit debacle over the last two years has become so familiar and drawn out to most of us that the extent of its ramifications might not appear all that obvious. The gradualness of the process means that for a world that is used to instant and rapid developments, the effects of Brexit don’t appear to have amounted to much thus far (even though it hasn’t happened yet), with many regarding any talk of economic contraction as fear-mongering.

But make no mistake, all forecasts for the UK’s economic future post-Brexit are grim. I don’t need to elaborate on this, it has been discussed at length in the main Brexit thread.

The point of this thread is to look at Britain’s political future, which is looking increasingly and worryingly turbulent. These are just some of the factors to be aware of, and which pose a danger down the line:

1) How much it has already polarised British society. I’ve spoken to a number of Brits (mostly English) since the vote and the sheer emotion that this issue has already unleashed is remarkable, understandly so for many people. This is quite clearly the most divisive issue British society has faced since the days of Thatcher at least, probably much longer. Families and friends falling out over this are not unheard of. It doesn’t bode well for when the effects of the process actually begin to bite.

2) How incompetent and dangerous the current government is. The current British cabinet has proven to be universally incapable of putting forward clear proposals for Brexit, or plan for its outcome. That much is well know. In addition to this, however, Brexit has propelled previously fringe or fanatical Tories to the spotlight, politicians who up until a few years ago would have been derided and mocked, but whose extremism now wields far more influence over the government than it did previously. Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, and Jacob Rees-Mogg being the most identifiable. The last one in particular demonstrates just how far politics has plummeted in the UK; that an antediluvian, bumbling parish-pump toff, who wouldn’t look out of place in a Blackadder sketch and who had up until recently been most well known for filibustering about Somerset eggs and creating a time zone for his own constituency, is being given any consideration for UK leadership in a crisis of this magnitude is catastrophically terrible. The results of such incompetence mixed with extremism will only multiply over time IMO.

3) A ridiculously inflated national image. Some British people today are frankly even more unaware or ambivalent to their egregious colonial past than those during the past century, and far more so than other European countries. At least with France and Germany the extent of their jingoism and self delusion was made clear to them in bloody terms during the Second World War and the Algerian War, and they at least appear to be more circumspect about it. It also means that the British have never had to confront the reality of their decline as an individual power. This only encourages delusions regarding Brexit, but also arrogance as regards other countries. Many Brexiteers exhibit that classically British view of themselves as aloof or above feckless continentals, as the negotiation process has demonstrated.

4) The fanaticism of Brexiteers. To say that advocates of Brexit are fixated on their cause is an understatement. It has become cult like, a sacred cause which should never be questioned or diluted. All of the issues when pointed out are ignored either because they are convinced that “experts” are lying to them (as in the case of Britain’s economy) or because the issues raised are too trivial in the English-centred radar to be worth arguing over (such as the border in Ireland).

When Brexit finally does take place, and reality sets in, rather than backtracking, it is more likely that ardent Brexiteers will simply retreat further into their shells and seek new scapegoats to blame. This is already taking place; many of them blame the British government individually for the debacle so far, (rather than, you know, the fcking affair in general) and of course the ever-malignant EU. They have banked too much on this cause and they have too much pride to admit any sort of defeat. “Sovereignty”, that great vacuous catch-all term, is what matters (never mind that the vision thus far for robust British sovereignty has been pandering to Trump’s America), all other mortal considerations come second.

There is a real danger here, and I am deeply worried that within a few years the fallout from this will shake faith in British institutions to their core. Extremism has been propelled to the centre of British politics, and the arrogance the current administration has demonstrated to its neighbours would make you worry what it would be like under even more extreme leadership. May’s government also having proven its utter incompetence, you would worry what sort of passions and instability could be unleashed in the future if the calibre of cabinet doesn’t improve.

We in Ireland should be very concerned about where this is headed. Geopolitically it is always wise to be wary of a power in decline, and as immediate neighbours we should be most attentive. The British, or at least the extreme part of it, will not quietly accept their reduced status and prospects in a post Brexit world. Given how divided their society is over this issue even before it has formally begun, and how much bad feeling will be created when the sh!t inevitably hits the fan, I don’t think it will simply be a case of transitioning to lesser power status; it will be very very turbulent at the very least, and possibly could be far worse. Something very ugly is lurking down the road IMO.
Ye obviously don't read the Express...
 

Sync

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Oh come on. If you’re going to start a dumb “de britz want to tank there way down O’Conell streeet” thread at least make the accusation flat out in the OP.
 

between the bridges

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Oh come on. If you’re going to start a dumb “de britz want to tank there way down O’Conell streeet” thread at least make the accusation flat out in the OP.
 

Drogheda445

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Joined
Feb 13, 2012
Messages
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Oh come on. If you’re going to start a dumb “de britz want to tank there way down O’Conell streeet” thread at least make the accusation flat out in the OP.
At this point I would be more worried about what would happen to Britain domestically than anything specifically foreign policy related, although as I’ve said it’s something to look out for. There are many ordinary people in Britain who are decent enough to have seen through this disaster and who could be the very first to suffer from this increasingly dark evolution of British politics.

Two weeks is a long time in politics. Britain has a reputation for stability and moderation, but all that seems to be changing atm.
 
D

Deleted member 48908

Oh come on. If you’re going to start a dumb “de britz want to tank there way down O’Conell streeet” thread at least make the accusation flat out in the OP.
It might just behoove us to throw that game in Twickenham tomorrow...just in case they start getting notions.
 

between the bridges

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Joined
Sep 21, 2011
Messages
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At this point I would be more worried about what would happen to Britain domestically than anything specifically foreign policy related, although as I’ve said it’s something to look out for. There are many ordinary people in Britain who are decent enough to have seen through this disaster and who could be the very first to suffer from this increasingly dark evolution of British politics.

Two weeks is a long time in politics. Britain has a reputation for stability and moderation, but all that seems to be changing atm.
 

Catalpast

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Joined
Nov 17, 2012
Messages
25,564
The Brexit debacle over the last two years has become so familiar and drawn out to most of us that the extent of its ramifications might not appear all that obvious. The gradualness of the process means that for a world that is used to instant and rapid developments, the effects of Brexit don’t appear to have amounted to much thus far (even though it hasn’t happened yet), with many regarding any talk of economic contraction as fear-mongering.

But make no mistake, all forecasts for the UK’s economic future post-Brexit are grim. I don’t need to elaborate on this, it has been discussed at length in the main Brexit thread.

The point of this thread is to look at Britain’s political future, which is looking increasingly and worryingly turbulent. These are just some of the factors to be aware of, and which pose a danger down the line:

1) How much it has already polarised British society. I’ve spoken to a number of Brits (mostly English) since the vote and the sheer emotion that this issue has already unleashed is remarkable, understandly so for many people. This is quite clearly the most divisive issue British society has faced since the days of Thatcher at least, probably much longer. Families and friends falling out over this are not unheard of. It doesn’t bode well for when the effects of the process actually begin to bite.

2) How incompetent and dangerous the current government is. The current British cabinet has proven to be universally incapable of putting forward clear proposals for Brexit, or plan for its outcome. That much is well know. In addition to this, however, Brexit has propelled previously fringe or fanatical Tories to the spotlight, politicians who up until a few years ago would have been derided and mocked, but whose extremism now wields far more influence over the government than it did previously. Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, and Jacob Rees-Mogg being the most identifiable. The last one in particular demonstrates just how far politics has plummeted in the UK; that an antediluvian, bumbling parish-pump toff, who wouldn’t look out of place in a Blackadder sketch and who had up until recently been most well known for filibustering about Somerset eggs and creating a time zone for his own constituency, is being given any consideration for UK leadership in a crisis of this magnitude is catastrophically terrible. The results of such incompetence mixed with extremism will only multiply over time IMO.

3) A ridiculously inflated national image. Some British people today are frankly even more unaware or ambivalent to their egregious colonial past than those during the past century, and far more so than other European countries. At least with France and Germany the extent of their jingoism and self delusion was made clear to them in bloody terms during the Second World War and the Algerian War, and they at least appear to be more circumspect about it. It also means that the British have never had to confront the reality of their decline as an individual power. This only encourages delusions regarding Brexit, but also arrogance as regards other countries. Many Brexiteers exhibit that classically British view of themselves as aloof or above feckless continentals, as the negotiation process has demonstrated.

4) The fanaticism of Brexiteers. To say that advocates of Brexit are fixated on their cause is an understatement. It has become cult like, a sacred cause which should never be questioned or diluted. All of the issues when pointed out are ignored either because they are convinced that “experts” are lying to them (as in the case of Britain’s economy) or because the issues raised are too trivial in the English-centred radar to be worth arguing over (such as the border in Ireland).

When Brexit finally does take place, and reality sets in, rather than backtracking, it is more likely that ardent Brexiteers will simply retreat further into their shells and seek new scapegoats to blame. This is already taking place; many of them blame the British government individually for the debacle so far, (rather than, you know, the fcking affair in general) and of course the ever-malignant EU. They have banked too much on this cause and they have too much pride to admit any sort of defeat. “Sovereignty”, that great vacuous catch-all term, is what matters (never mind that the vision thus far for robust British sovereignty has been pandering to Trump’s America), all other mortal considerations come second.

There is a real danger here, and I am deeply worried that within a few years the fallout from this will shake faith in British institutions to their core. Extremism has been propelled to the centre of British politics, and the arrogance the current administration has demonstrated to its neighbours would make you worry what it would be like under even more extreme leadership. May’s government also having proven its utter incompetence, you would worry what sort of passions and instability could be unleashed in the future if the calibre of cabinet doesn’t improve.

We in Ireland should be very concerned about where this is headed. Geopolitically it is always wise to be wary of a power in decline, and as immediate neighbours we should be most attentive. The British, or at least the extreme part of it, will not quietly accept their reduced status and prospects in a post Brexit world. Given how divided their society is over this issue even before it has formally begun, and how much bad feeling will be created when the sh!t inevitably hits the fan, I don’t think it will simply be a case of transitioning to lesser power status; it will be very very turbulent at the very least, and possibly could be far worse. Something very ugly is lurking down the road IMO.

Thoughts?
Your a Snowflake
 

fifilawe

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Sep 25, 2017
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1,485
Are we looking towards a "Logan's Run" country in a 100yrs or a "Planet of the Apes " scenario where further generations are going to be more technologically backward than the present.Maybe there will a whole lot of "self-governing" domains about, which is what the world needs as variety is the essence of civilisations.
 
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GDPR

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Jul 5, 2008
Messages
217,846
Its incredibly dangerous.

A rogue tax haven country next door to Ireland, outside any major trading bloc, internationally isolated, with nuclear weapons, we might as well be Latvia.

However I think the British havent managed to survive without major eruptions of commonsense, so no need to panic just yet.
 

former wesleyan

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There are nastier specimens in the Tory Party than Boris and Rees-Mogg.
 

Spirit Of Newgrange

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its better to live independent and sovereign in a modest country - master of your own domain . . . than living as a wealthy ethnic-minority in a multicultural hell-hole. A hellhole with chicken-shop rapists , ghettoes , linguistic and cultural annihilation, an epidemic of crime and anti social behaviour, Courts undermined, a Tsunami of military-age male migrants from the Third world , terrorism, religious fundamentalism, a housing crisis etc etc.

England voted. get over it.


i'm alright jack, you pull up the ladder.

f....k the economy, the investors, the newcomers, the BBC, f......k the EU !!


Before its revolution, Cuba was turning into a giant brothel with fat foreigners coming down to rent all the local women, fat investors buying up all the real estate, fat criminals all trashing the place. And the local men all turned into a bunch of waiters paying high taxes to a corrupt government while begging for tips from Mafia men in their restaurant.

cuba / Brexit.
 
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Dasayev

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2,811
It will be interesting to see which type of Brexit we get. A soft Brexit will negate much of the potential damage. However a hard Brexit will be much more destabilising for Britain.

We can see trouble in the guise of Scotland, the North and the Young versus the Old. Potentially a mixture of the troubles, the swinging sixties, and the convulsions of Thatcherism rolled into one.

Everything might be going to hell but the music should be good anyway.
 

Spirit Of Newgrange

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Messages
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It will be interesting to see which type of Brexit we get. A soft Brexit will negate much of the potential damage. However a hard Brexit will be much more destabilising for Britain.

We can see trouble in the guise of Scotland, the North and the Young versus the Old. Potentially a mixture of the troubles, the swinging sixties, and the convulsions of Thatcherism rolled into one.

Everything might be going to hell but the music should be good anyway.
i hope its a hard Brexit. Ireland is a rotten tooth in the jawbone of monster Merkel. It will take some pain to shift it free.
 

Tribal

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There is certainly cause to be concerned about social instability. In the past minorities weren't seen as a threat the British class pyramid as they filled the bottom rung jobs that locals didn't do anymore. But with an economic squeeze they will be the ones who'll be treated as excess baggage, even if they 2nd and 3rd generation British.
 

Wascurito

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From listening to some of the Brexiteers and their absurd analyses as to how post-Brexit UK should manage its borders and trade, they have to know that the whole thing is an impossible clusterf__k. So what's Plan B? Could it be to let someone else step in and deliver a soft Brexit or something that's not Brexit at all? Then, they can argue that the will of The People has been frustrated, democracy has been stabbed in the back etc. That could be the basis for an ugly, right-wing nationalist movement that would attract far more support in the mainstream media than the likes of Britain First.

I'm sure we've all already seen the petulant reaction of some Brexiteers on TV that the UK is not much further down the brexiting road. It's a conspiracy! The Elites are ignoring The Ornery People! Maybe not. Maybe the Brexit concept has so many internal contradictions that it's just undeliverable.
 


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