- Jun 5, 2017
Non unionists (i.e. including Alliance and the Greens) are already outvoting unionists. A clear majority of Alliance and Green voters can be defined as leaning nationalist, rather than unionist. It is not that easy to find the evidence but PR election transfers provide it. In the 2014 Euro election 71% of Alliance transfers went to the SDLP, compared to 29 to the 2 remaining unionist candidates.Certainly not denying the effect of Brexit but I do feel nationalists tend to get quite giddy with respect to polls.. years ago it was the catholic birth rate, now its Brexit.
I know the poll, it was from December. As I said, more recent Ipsos Mori puts it 32 UI v 45 UK. Pinch of salt mate.
I would see an election where nationalists clearly outvote unionists as a sure sign of nationalism on the move, but I haven't seen that yet.
Lets see what happens before you start printing new road signs.
The point is that these voters are pragmatists who unlike most unionists do not have any emotional attachment to Britain. And unionists can no longer depend on the rallying cry of Rome Rule to scare moderate Protestants.
The argument will be won by focussing on the moderates on both sides and it will be based on economics, and whether we are to remain a beggar economy forever reliant on handouts from SE England, while a large number of our people are employed on zero hours contracts, and minimum wage jobs in Poundland, Asda and KFC. In a united Ireland Belfast would be well placed to attract almost as much
of the lucrative inward investment that Dublin enjoys.