• Due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software, some users were "banned" when they tried to change their passwords at the end of February. This does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you were affected by this, please contact us.

British Labour and the Tories now neck and neck in poll

The Trinity Politick

Active member
Joined
Sep 30, 2006
Messages
248
Clearly not relevant to everyone but interesting for those of you that follow elections throughout Europe and the Americas, Sky News have just reported that the Guardian Newspaper tomorrow will publish their poll putting David Cameron's Conservatives and PM Gordon Browns Labour level pegging.

I believe it will have both on 38%

Regardless of the bounce from the conference, this is an enormous turnaround for the Tories and may end the chance of a snap election.

Other polls in the Times and for Channel 4 show a sharp drop in Labour support and a rise of Tory support

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/polls/story/0,,2183987,00.html
 


Trefor

Active member
Joined
Sep 6, 2004
Messages
273
Website
oclmenai.blogspot.com
It's an eccentric feature of the British electoral system that a 38% / 38% popular vote would give Labour an overall majority of roughly 50 seats.
 

Keith-M

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 24, 2007
Messages
15,668
Website
www.allkindsofeverything.ie
Trefor said:
It's an eccentric feature of the British electoral system that a 38% / 38% popular vote would give Labour an overall majority of roughly 50 seats.
Indeed, it's a ridiculous system.
 

Catalpa

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 10, 2004
Messages
10,257
Trefor said:
It's an eccentric feature of the British electoral system that a 38% / 38% popular vote would give Labour an overall majority of roughly 50 seats.

See here:

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/polls/st ... 87,00.html

Last night Labour MPs in marginal seats were said to be very nervous about a snap election

I'd say they bloody well are! :shock:

It's Off! :oops:
 

Trefor

Active member
Joined
Sep 6, 2004
Messages
273
Website
oclmenai.blogspot.com
Keith-M said:
Trefor said:
It's an eccentric feature of the British electoral system that a 38% / 38% popular vote would give Labour an overall majority of roughly 50 seats.
Indeed, it's a ridiculous system.
But a system the Tories (for reasons best known to themselves) won't hear a word uttered against.
 

geraghd

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
474
Thats some turnaround from the 11 point lead that Labour (or was it Gordon Brown) had over the Tories (Cameron?). Cameron is back in business and shows that surge in support for Brown was certainly only a temporary phenomenon.
His speech was excellent.
Made me proud to part with my Conservative Future Membership fee of £4!
 

Trefor

Active member
Joined
Sep 6, 2004
Messages
273
Website
oclmenai.blogspot.com
geraghd said:
Thats some turnaround from the 11 point lead that Labour (or was it Gordon Brown) had over the Tories (Cameron?). Cameron is back in business and shows that surge in support for Brown was certainly only a temporary phenomenon.
His speech was excellent.
Made me proud to part with my Conservative Future Membership fee of £4!
I'll bet you a couple of quid that the Tories will be back where they were (more or less) this time next week.
 

Ard-Taoiseach

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 11, 2007
Messages
746
Indeed, it could be part of a post-conference bounce. We should wait to see if this lasts out to Christmas.
 

Catalpa

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 10, 2004
Messages
10,257
geraghd said:
Thats some turnaround from the 11 point lead that Labour (or was it Gordon Brown) had over the Tories (Cameron?). Cameron is back in business and shows that surge in support for Brown was certainly only a temporary phenomenon.
His speech was excellent.
Made me proud to part with my Conservative Future Membership fee of £4!
Yeah by all accounts he made a great speech that was basically unscripted opening with the lines IIRC It might be a bit messy but its me
 

Keith-M

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 24, 2007
Messages
15,668
Website
www.allkindsofeverything.ie
Ard-Taoiseach said:
Indeed, it could be part of a post-conference bounce. We should wait to see if this lasts out to Christmas.
Brown doesn't have that luxury. Canvassing in the cold dark evenings in DEcember and January is a non-starter, unless you are forced into doing it.
 

Politica

New member
Joined
Sep 29, 2007
Messages
3
Keith-M wrote:
Trefor wrote:
It's an eccentric feature of the British electoral system that a 38% / 38% popular vote would give Labour an overall majority of roughly 50 seats.


Indeed, it's a ridiculous system.
It's hardly a democratic system. Labour won 35% popular support at the last election and yet rule the UK alone. The arguement the two main parties give in favour of fptp is that it results in strong government. That's like a dictatorship saying that a lack of political opposition allows for strong government
 

geraghd

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
474
Trefor said:
geraghd said:
Thats some turnaround from the 11 point lead that Labour (or was it Gordon Brown) had over the Tories (Cameron?). Cameron is back in business and shows that surge in support for Brown was certainly only a temporary phenomenon.
His speech was excellent.
Made me proud to part with my Conservative Future Membership fee of £4!
I'll bet you a couple of quid that the Tories will be back where they were (more or less) this time next week.
You mean assuming an election is called?

AT: Yep obviouly post conference bounce is a huge thing, but the opinion poll shows two things at least that benefit the Tories:

One, that the Brown bounce was indeed just a bounce and he is a lot of vulnerable now, less the rock he was on assuming the PM position.
Two, that Cameron has revitalised the Tories and his own leadership, and has shown the British people what would be hoped is the real him (passionate, capable, caring etc) and that they are now a very relevant party in the election stakes.

Im not suggesting from this poll that suddenly the Tories are back on to a winning horse or anything, but they are very much in the race right now.

But I think all this will do is to frighten Brown from calling an election.

Another plus for the Convservatives is that they can get back to their agenda of researching important policy (which they hurriedly published at their conference this week in the very real possibility that an election was going to be called) and have another couple of years to showcase their shadow cabinet and Cameron himself.
 

Insider2007

Active member
Joined
Apr 27, 2007
Messages
213
To give him his due Cameron's speech was incredible. To deliver an 8000 word speech to a conference, without a script or autoque, and deliver it so well, was a remarkable feat. I was watching in astonishment. I've written speeches in the past and so deliberately watched him to see how well he would do. I was flabbergasted.
 

Ard-Taoiseach

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 11, 2007
Messages
746
Insider2007 said:
To give him his due Cameron's speech was incredible. To deliver an 8000 word speech to a conference, without a script or autoque, and deliver it so well, was a remarkable feat. I was watching in astonishment. I've written speeches in the past and so deliberately watched him to see how well he would do. I was flabbergasted.
Yes, I remember he performed this feat for 30 minutes in the leadership contest with David Davis.

He is a truly exceptional public speaker. I'd love to see him in the debating society back in Eton!
 

Defeated Romanticist

Active member
Joined
Apr 12, 2007
Messages
277
Politica said:
Keith-M wrote:
Trefor wrote:
It's an eccentric feature of the British electoral system that a 38% / 38% popular vote would give Labour an overall majority of roughly 50 seats.


Indeed, it's a ridiculous system.
It's hardly a democratic system. Labour won 35% popular support at the last election and yet rule the UK alone. The arguement the two main parties give in favour of fptp is that it results in strong government. That's like a dictatorship saying that a lack of political opposition allows for strong government
The Tories got more votes in England last time out than Labour, that's how democratic it is
 

geraghd

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
474
Insider2007 said:
To give him his due Cameron's speech was incredible. To deliver an 8000 word speech to a conference, without a script or autoque, and deliver it so well, was a remarkable feat. I was watching in astonishment. I've written speeches in the past and so deliberately watched him to see how well he would do. I was flabbergasted.
Indeed. Although as some media outlets were suggesting it was an off the cuff speech (an hour off the cuff I think is a feat not quite possible and certainly unwise) he obviously had quite a bit of preparation but nonetheless impressive. Importantly though it was a brilliant tactic which given the poll turnaround would seem to have payed off immensely..
 

Trefor

Active member
Joined
Sep 6, 2004
Messages
273
Website
oclmenai.blogspot.com
geraghd said:
But I think all this will do is to frighten Brown from calling an election.
Hope you're right mate.

I was planning on going on holiday to the West of Ireland over the half term. If there's an election on the 1st or the 8th of November, that's out the window.
 

MookieBaylock

Well-known member
Joined
May 5, 2007
Messages
403
i agree - it was one of the most amazing political speeches of all time, especially considering the glare leaders are under nowadays... fair play to him!

I wish we had someone like him here...

does anyway not find it odd that Labour are now more right wing than the Tories? I think the political balance has switched from a free market/socialist fight to a liberalism/state interference divide (witness ID cards)...

the same has happened in Ireland.. the common man's party - FF - are now the Tories!
 

Trefor

Active member
Joined
Sep 6, 2004
Messages
273
Website
oclmenai.blogspot.com
Ard-Taoiseach said:
Insider2007 said:
To give him his due Cameron's speech was incredible. To deliver an 8000 word speech to a conference, without a script or autoque, and deliver it so well, was a remarkable feat. I was watching in astonishment. I've written speeches in the past and so deliberately watched him to see how well he would do. I was flabbergasted.
Yes, I remember he performed this feat for 30 minutes in the leadership contest with David Davis.

He is a truly exceptional public speaker. I'd love to see him in the debating society back in Eton!
My party leader can make a speech, & a good one at that, without any notes & switching languages as he goes along - & often does so. He's hardly a genius to be honest though.
 

tic tac man

Member
Joined
May 27, 2007
Messages
14
Trefor said:
geraghd said:
Thats some turnaround from the 11 point lead that Labour (or was it Gordon Brown) had over the Tories (Cameron?). Cameron is back in business and shows that surge in support for Brown was certainly only a temporary phenomenon.
His speech was excellent.
Made me proud to part with my Conservative Future Membership fee of £4!
I'll bet you a couple of quid that the Tories will be back where they were (more or less) this time next week.
A bet I wouldn't take. He's had great press for his speach and this poll must have been done just yesterday. When the dust has settled, I just can't see any long term gain for the Tories. They have no real focus, no real profile, other than that of confusion and disarray.

Cameron is doing a great job, but I think he's taken on a job that just can't be done. During the 18 years of conservative rule there was only a relatively brief period when labour looked this far being electable. Under Kinnock, and later Smith, they never looked far away and had the aura of government in waiting for most of a decade before they actually won.

With Labour so firmly entrenched in the middle ground, it sometimes seems hard to see how they might ever lose power.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top