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Budget 2012 - No defections likely?


FloatingVoterTralee

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With both parties having cordoned off their red-line issues from Wednesday's speech, the political contentiousness of the content is likely to be much diminished. Cuts to home help, child benefits and pensioners' allowance will be unpalatable to backbenchers, but are they likely to cause the loss of any dissident deputies in the ensuing votes?
 

odlum

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Well budget 2012 took place 12 months a go and there are no defections as of yet...but we are waiting OP for some one to break ranks.
 

cricket

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Think it's a fair chance that one or two Labour deputies will jump ship.
 

emulator

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Think it's a fair chance that one or two Labour deputies will jump ship.
That has been muted in the media alright...

It will be interesting to see if there is increased pressure on Gilmore because of it.... depends on how many jump I suppose.
 

Ryan Tubbs

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Think it's a fair chance that one or two Labour deputies will jump ship.
The cranks are already overboard - Broughan, Nutty Nulty (Labour TD for about 20 mins), Shortall, Penrose - so it's difficult to see who would be willing to jump at this stage
 

emulator

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Labour have performed poorly in the lead up to the budget. They made a big thing of the USC increase for people on over €100K.... but when it came down to it they were fobbed off with a "mansion tax"

Sounds great though :shock: "mansion tax" .... That's sticking it to them !
 

cricket

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The cranks are already overboard - Broughan, Nutty Nulty (Labour TD for about 20 mins), Shortall, Penrose - so it's difficult to see who would be willing to jump at this stage
I've heard of one provincial backbencher who looks likely. We'll just have to wait.
 

james toney

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Political cowardice will stop many from jumping ship.
This is a long shot i know,but just in case any of them are looking in.

[video=youtube;qE_-Fp7lGSk]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qE_-Fp7lGSk&feature=youtu.be[/video]
 

Jackass

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That has been muted in the media alright...

It will be interesting to see if there is increased pressure on Gilmore because of it.... depends on how many jump I suppose.
FG will offload Reilly to try to steady the ship. Today's Irish Mail has started to rock the boat. It seems there was more than one tent afloat in Clonmel.
 

hmmm

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I'm not sure what they will be jumping at. No-one is going to get excited about 10 quid off child benefit.

If Labour backbenchers haven't jumped already when there was cuts to home help to pay for bloated public sector salaries, what have they left to resign on out of principle? I expect the usual pained expressions and expressions of anger, followed by a lot of nothing.
 

turdsl

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Whats left in Labour now will play the game led by Gilmore, Quinn and Rabbitte

and change their mind 3 times a day to suit the occasion.
 

Crazy horse 6

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Anyone left in the labour party at this stage after what they are accepting from FG are an utter shambles.
 

emulator

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FG will offload Reilly to try to steady the ship. Today's Irish Mail has started to rock the boat. It seems there was more than one tent afloat in Clonmel.
Even when they do turf Reilly out Kenny and Gilmore are leaving themselves wide open because of their support for him on issues where there should've been no support from any right minded party leader. The irony is that, their support of him so they could stay in power will ultimately be the thing that removes them from power.

Gas.
 

Rocky

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No I don't think so.

It would seem more likely that a Labour TD would be the most likely to jump, but I think all of them are stong and brave enough to fight for what is neccesary. Colm Keaveney is one I'd have a few doubts about, but still I doubt it.
 

Rocky

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Labour have performed poorly in the lead up to the budget. They made a big thing of the USC increase for people on over €100K.... but when it came down to it they were fobbed off with a "mansion tax"

Sounds great though :shock: "mansion tax" .... That's sticking it to them !
People are constantly complaining about a lack of fairness in these budgetd. Both an increase in the USC for people over 100K and a mansion tax would save feck all but sounds nice.

It's actually works fairly well. Fine Gael worry about bringing the actual deficit down and where we can save real money, Labour worry about what sounds good. Labour's problem is they're trying to please people they can never can, but then they can still please some of them.
 

cogar

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I have said it before and I say it again - it is not just Lab who are unhappy with James Reilly - he just had not enough political nous to handle the brief - the old FF rump in his Department did him no favors, but that said he is the boss and he has made a toilet out of it.

Now, how does he go? Not with pressure from FF , that is for sure. And most assuredly not under pressure from the Labour Party. He is looking under severe stress at the moment and by moving early in the new year when things cool down then the political (and personal) damage can be limited.

Finally: up the blueshirts!
 

emulator

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People are constantly complaining about a lack of fairness in these budgetd. Both an increase in the USC for people over 100K and a mansion tax would save feck all but sounds nice.

It's actually works fairly well. Fine Gael worry about bringing the actual deficit down and where we can save real money, Labour worry about what sounds good. Labour's problem is they're trying to please people they can never can, but then they can still please some of them.
Precisely.... it sounds great for Labour. But essentially means fúck all.

I was making the point in my post that Labour shouldn't have made such a big deal of the USC issue before hand unless they thought they were going to get it. It shows them politically panicked with a need to get something out into the media to appease their base.

What was more disturbing was FG's response. The went for the schoolyard tactic of.... if you want 3% off the €100k+ people, we want 3% off the €188 people. Really shows you how FG think....
 

Rocky

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Precisely.... it sounds great for Labour. But essentially means fúck all.

I was making the point in my post that Labour shouldn't have made such a big deal of the USC issue before hand unless they thought they were going to get it. It shows them politically panicked with a need to get something out into the media to appease their base.

What was more disturbing was FG's response. The went for the schoolyard tactic of.... if you want 3% off the €100k+ people, we want 3% off the €188 people. Really shows you how FG think....
No the mindset was, if we're going to breach our core promise (not to raise income tax rates), you might as well break yours (cut core social welfare rates).

According to the Times today
The Fine Gael argument was that this would bring in “massive savings” of an extra €600 million, allowing the Government to avoid cuts in health and education spending. However, Government sources said Tánaiste and Labour leader Eamon Gilmore took a stand against this proposal, which would have run contrary to its commitment not to cut basic welfare rates.
€600 million is obviously an awful lot of money and that's ony a 3% cut in social welfare rates except pensions. That's the thing with cutting the things that affect an awful lot of people, you save an awful lot of money through quite a small cut or increase. However the government keep shying away from doing that because they hit an awful lot of people and it's a pity.
 
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