Budget 2019 - Predictions

libertarian-right

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Apr 23, 2007
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2,474
Let's get the ball rolling on any upcoming predictions you have for Budget 2019.

This is a small list of what could be on the cards (not what I personally want mind you but ideas that have been thrown out into the public domain previously or are floating around currently).

Spending
- Rainy Day Fund, being prudent, not overheating economy, fiscal rules to be followed, lessons from the past etc
- New social housing initiatives, fast tracking developments, talk about reducing homelessness numbers
- Money allocated to health in effort to boost staffing levels, provide extra resources and to try reduce trolley numbers and for abortion services in 2019
- Money allocated to building new schools, talk about preserving vibrant education system
- Money allocated to road network and maintenance, a lot of guff from the Project Ireland 2040 National framework documentation
- Equal pay for new entrants in the Public Sector. Discussions with unions on X date in 2019.
- Disability payment to be increased by €7 per week
- Carers payment to be increased by €10 per week
- Other social welfare payments to have an on-average €5 per week increase

Taxation
- Modifications to the Local Property Tax that will come into affect in 2020, re-evaluations process etc
- New Speculation tax that will apply to foreign and domestic investors who don’t pay income tax in the state to prevent investors from distorting/overheating the residential property market in a time of limited supply.
- Vacant site tax to be detailed for 2019
- Airbnb and short term let restrictions in order to lift the pressure off the rental market. "Tourists in houses, homeless in hotels" motto.
- Rent pressure zones to be modified and extended to other areas identified.
- Abolish the special 9% Vat rate for the tourism and hospitality sector, talk of thriving tourism market.
- Talk of changes to 23% VAT over a period of time down to 20% by 2020. Brexit concerns.

- Very small cuts to USC as follows ->

5% to 4% From €18,772.01 to €70,044.00
8% to 7.5% From €70,044.01 to €100,000.00
8% to 7.5% Any PAYE income over €100,000
11% to 10% Non-PAYE (Self-employed) income over €100,000

- Income tax, very minor increase to the threshold for entering higher rate of tax ->

From €34,550 to €35,000 for single persons
From €43,550 to €44,000 for married couples

- Talk of merging USC and PRSI by 2020 budget.
- CGT/CAT rate to remain at 33%, aim to reduce them to 30% by 2020.
- Introducing a compulsory third-party insurance levied through annual motor tax to be available by 2020, tender in 2019.
- Excise duty to be hit as per usual -> wine, smokes, diesel.
- Talk about the money already allocated from previous budget.

Talking points
- more people working than ever in the states history
- distance traveled in terms of the deficit, debt, jobs and economy. Thanking the Irish people blah blah.
- sustained growth, transforming living standards
- this is a health and housing, health and housing, health and housing budget
 


Ruff says Flaherty

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Joined
Feb 18, 2011
Messages
1,478
More money to be poured down the black hole that is the HSE and Department of social protection

How about cutting Job seekers allowance for those fit to work after 3 years by 25% and then by another 5% year on year ,up to a maximum of 50%? Shake the last few work dodgers out of their nests.
 

statsman

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Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
55,055
Let's get the ball rolling on any upcoming predictions you have for Budget 2019.

This is a small list of what could be on the cards (not what I personally want mind you but ideas that have been thrown out into the public domain previously or are floating around currently).

Spending
- Rainy Day Fund, being prudent, not overheating economy, fiscal rules to be followed, lessons from the past etc
- New social housing initiatives, fast tracking developments, talk about reducing homelessness numbers
- Money allocated to health in effort to boost staffing levels, provide extra resources and to try reduce trolley numbers and for abortion services in 2019
- Money allocated to building new schools, talk about preserving vibrant education system
- Money allocated to road network and maintenance, a lot of guff from the Project Ireland 2040 National framework documentation
- Equal pay for new entrants in the Public Sector. Discussions with unions on X date in 2019.
- Disability payment to be increased by €7 per week
- Carers payment to be increased by €10 per week
- Other social welfare payments to have an on-average €5 per week increase

Taxation
- Modifications to the Local Property Tax that will come into affect in 2020, re-evaluations process etc
- New Speculation tax that will apply to foreign and domestic investors who don’t pay income tax in the state to prevent investors from distorting/overheating the residential property market in a time of limited supply.
- Vacant site tax to be detailed for 2019
- Airbnb and short term let restrictions in order to lift the pressure off the rental market. "Tourists in houses, homeless in hotels" motto.
- Rent pressure zones to be modified and extended to other areas identified.
- Abolish the special 9% Vat rate for the tourism and hospitality sector, talk of thriving tourism market.
- Talk of changes to 23% VAT over a period of time down to 20% by 2020. Brexit concerns.

- Very small cuts to USC as follows ->

5% to 4% From €18,772.01 to €70,044.00
8% to 7.5% From €70,044.01 to €100,000.00
8% to 7.5% Any PAYE income over €100,000
11% to 10% Non-PAYE (Self-employed) income over €100,000

- Income tax, very minor increase to the threshold for entering higher rate of tax ->

From €34,550 to €35,000 for single persons
From €43,550 to €44,000 for married couples

- Talk of merging USC and PRSI by 2020 budget.
- CGT/CAT rate to remain at 33%, aim to reduce them to 30% by 2020.
- Introducing a compulsory third-party insurance levied through annual motor tax to be available by 2020, tender in 2019.
- Excise duty to be hit as per usual -> wine, smokes, diesel.
- Talk about the money already allocated from previous budget.

Talking points
- more people working than ever in the states history
- distance traveled in terms of the deficit, debt, jobs and economy. Thanking the Irish people blah blah.
- sustained growth, transforming living standards
- this is a health and housing, health and housing, health and housing budget
Not much I'd disagree with there, as predictions. However, if the Brexit talks go belly-up, all bets are off.
 
D

Deleted member 48908

Not much I'd disagree with there, as predictions. However, if the Brexit talks go belly-up, all bets are off.
Belly up or face down, there'd need to be some sort of contingency, and a rainy day fund ain't it.
 

JimmyFoley

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Sep 28, 2016
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9,475
Anyone want to start a petition requesting Paschal to just leave things as they are?
 

statsman

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Feb 25, 2011
Messages
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Belly up or face down, there'd need to be some sort of contingency, and a rainy day fund ain't it.
There's be some sort of Brexit adjustment measure in there, you'd have to think. An outline agreed programme of subsidies for the food sector co-funded by the EU?
 

carlovian

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Jun 20, 2008
Messages
5,331
Anyone want to start a petition requesting Paschal to just leave things as they are?
Not sure the 10,500 in emergency accommodation or the record number on trollies will sign it.
 
D

Deleted member 48908

There's be some sort of Brexit adjustment measure in there, you'd have to think. An outline agreed programme of subsidies for the food sector co-funded by the EU?
Agriculture, tourism, and possibly retail sectors would all need some sort of reassurance from Finance to help them offset the bite from Brexit - regardless of it being hard or soft. My gut feeling is that there won't be too many giveaways, unless some bastardized version of Reaganomics is to be the strategy.
 

statsman

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Feb 25, 2011
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Agriculture, tourism, and possibly retail sectors would all need some sort of reassurance from Finance to help them offset the bite from Brexit - regardless of it being hard or soft. My gut feeling is that there won't be too many giveaways, unless some bastardized version of Reaganomics is to be the strategy.
A cautious budget with no sniff of a pre-election vote buyer would really heap the pressure back on FF to agree an extension of the C&S arrangement.
 

culmore

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Jun 14, 2010
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FF wont seek an election till the Abortion Laws are sorted out, and that will be next year at the earliest.
 
D

Deleted member 48908

A cautious budget with no sniff of a pre-election vote buyer would really heap the pressure back on FF to agree an extension of the C&S arrangement.
Of course, there's the flip side to that coin where FF demand a giveaway budget filled with unicorns and rainbows and development grants that they could take some sort of credit for.
 

statsman

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55,055
FF wont seek an election till the Abortion Laws are sorted out, and that will be next year at the earliest.
And then we have the Euros, the Presidential, probably a few more referendums. And then it's budget time again. Election 2020 anyone?
 
D

Deleted member 48908

FF wont seek an election till the Abortion Laws are sorted out, and that will be next year at the earliest.
I really don't see where abortion legislation will be very problematic. In case you missed it, the people delivered a huge mandate to the government to enact it.
 

statsman

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Of course, there's the flip side to that coin where FF demand a giveaway budget filled with unicorns and rainbows and development grants that they could take some sort of credit for.
In which case they go to the country as the party of irresponsible overheating.
 

statsman

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I really don't see where abortion legislation will be very problematic. In case you missed it, the people delivered a huge mandate to the government to enact it.
Legislation, regulation, funding agreements with GPs; January at the earliest, I fear.
 
D

Deleted member 48908

And then we have the Euros, the Presidential, probably a few more referendums. And then it's budget time again. Election 2020 anyone?
I dunno...we're back to Brexit. As you pointed out elsewhere, Mary Lou sees an opportunity and has announced her willingness to enter coalition. I'm sure that others feel the same way. An end to C&S and a full coalition anyone?
 

Golden Phoenix

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I predict that whatever is in Budget 2019 it will make very little difference to our lives.
 
D

Deleted member 48908

Legislation, regulation, funding agreements with GPs; January at the earliest, I fear.
Yes, there's lots of actual work to be done, but little of will be controversial...regardless of what p.ie's front page says.
 


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