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By-Elections 2019: Wexford, Cork NC, Dublin Fingal & Dublin Midwest.

the secretary

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So, 4 sitting TDs have been elected to the EU parliament resulting in 4 by-elections. I have very little local knowledge regarding any of these constituencies so all opinions are welcome.
Let's have look.

Cork NC
Looks like a FF seat. They got a huge vote there last time. Can't see SF putting up a fight or FG for that matter unless they parachute in a celeb candidate.
FF.

Wexford
Again here FF should be favourites. Their other EU candidate in the south was from here and I am guessing he will be their candidate. FG will be their biggest competitors. Will Wallace put someone up?
Shinners won't feature.
FF

Dublin Fingal
An interesting patch. Will FG put up Reilly? They will fancy their chances as will FF with Clifford.
Can't see the shinners featuring here either.
This used to be an area where the Green party did well. Have they someone suitable?
Will Claire Daly find a suitable replacement? It will be hard as she has big boots to fill.
Hard to call!
On a good day FF or maybe a Green shock!

Dublin Midwest
SF did well here at the last GE. Will Eoin O'Brien want a strong TD as competition? There isn't 2 shinner seats here.
FG should be favourites here I am guessing. Leo is just next door, it would look very bad for they if they couldn't hold this seat. I reckon FG will pay most attention to this constituency out of the 4.
Cant see FF featuring. Again, might the Greens pick up a good vote to keep the momentum going?
FG

As the arithmetic in Dail Eireann is very tight, will these election have big consequences if the government don't do well?
 


Degeneration X

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So, 4 sitting TDs have been elected to the EU parliament resulting in 4 by-elections. I have very little local knowledge regarding any of these constituencies so all opinions are welcome.
Let's have look.

Cork NC
Looks like a FF seat. They got a huge vote there last time. Can't see SF putting up a fight or FG for that matter unless they parachute in a celeb candidate.
FF.

Wexford
Again here FF should be favourites. Their other EU candidate in the south was from here and I am guessing he will be their candidate. FG will be their biggest competitors. Will Wallace put someone up?
Shinners won't feature.
FF

Dublin Fingal
An interesting patch. Will FG put up Reilly? They will fancy their chances as will FF with Clifford.
Can't see the shinners featuring here either.
This used to be an area where the Green party did well. Have they someone suitable?
Will Claire Daly find a suitable replacement? It will be hard as she has big boots to fill.
Hard to call!
On a good day FF or maybe a Green shock!

Dublin Midwest
SF did well here at the last GE. Will Eoin O'Brien want a strong TD as competition? There isn't 2 shinner seats here.
FG should be favourites here I am guessing. Leo is just next door, it would look very bad for they if they couldn't hold this seat. I reckon FG will pay most attention to this constituency out of the 4.
Cant see FF featuring. Again, might the Greens pick up a good vote to keep the momentum going?
FG

As the arithmetic in Dail Eireann is very tight, will these election have big consequences if the government don't do well?
As for Fingal a three horse race:

Cllr. Joe O'Brien (Green) - best placed given the boost for the Greens.
Senator James Reilly (FG) - has to run but will all the Compo claims against Farrell hurt his chances?
Senator Lorraine Clifford Lee (FF) - has a decent shot with her recent move.

I have no idea if Daly has a protege to run in her stead - I think Barry Martin the guy who was her running mate in 2016 has quit politics but maybe he can be coaxed back.

Sinn Fein have no real organisation here so they'll run an also ran. No idea what Labour will do but Cllr. Brian McDonagh would be their best bet but won't win. SOL-AAA are wiped so they'll also run some no hoper. Tony Murphy from the IA may also feature.
 

midlander12

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As for Fingal a three horse race:

Cllr. Joe O'Brien (Green) - best placed given the boost for the Greens.
Senator James Reilly (FG) - has to run but will all the Compo claims against Farrell hurt his chances?
Senator Lorraine Clifford Lee (FF) - has a decent shot with her recent move.

I have no idea if Daly has a protege to run in her stead - I think Barry Martin the guy who was her running mate in 2016 has quit politics but maybe he can be coaxed back.

Sinn Fein have no real organisation here so they'll run an also ran.
No idea what Labour will do but Cllr. Brian McDonagh would be their best bet but won't win. SOL-AAA are wiped so they'll also run some no hoper. Tony Murphy from the IA may also feature.
Er - haven't they a seat here? Louise O'Reilly? I agree they have no hope in a byelection - it will be FF with the Greens running second possibly. But I don't believe these byelections will happen anyway - there'll be a GE in the spring at the latest.
 

drjimryan2

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Clifford lee has no on the ground profile.......OBrien doesn't want her either as he has it all sewn up to top the poll.........Darragh Butler treated very badly...again!
 

MsDaisyC

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Malcolm Byrne looks like a hot favourite for the Wexford seat. Labour might run George Lawlor as he can't split Howlin's vote this time! Leonard Kelly probably won't run in this election as he's now a councillor (highest non party first prefs after Wallace).
 

Degeneration X

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Er - haven't they a seat here? Louise O'Reilly? I agree they have no hope in a byelection - it will be FF with the Greens running second possibly. But I don't believe these byelections will happen anyway - there'll be a GE in the spring at the latest.
They have a seat but no organisation which is why O'Reilly was dropped in from the outside last time.
 

Dame_Enda

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Wexford is one of few constituencies where Labour has a shot in a by-election, as the party is still quite strong in the county.

However I think it will be between FF and FG. The wildcard is where Wallace votes will go.
 

periodically

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From Wexford's point of view.

FF:
Running Malcolm Byrne most likely. Fancied to win the election because of Byrne's popularity, he nearly got double the quota in the council elections. However this won't go down well with some of the local FF members as Cllr Lisa McDonald had already been chosen to contest the next general election.

LAB:
George Lawlor the most likely candidate. Lawlor is fiercely popular county wide and combined with the Labour support in Wexford I'd give Labour a decent shot to win another seat since this time he won't be splitting Brendan's vote.

FG:
I've heard they're running Verona Murphy. Verona's regarded as a good candidate but there's a video of her that did the rounds a while ago saying 'Wexford has no homelessness crisis'... that won't make her too popular. She'll feature but not too strongly.

SF:
The SF vote in Wexford is going to choke even further in this election. They'll probably run Johnny Mythen, he missed his seat by 50 votes LTO but then lost his council seat by a long way, so I'm expecting another SF death here.

OTHERS:
As said above I don't reckon Leonard Kelly's going for it now that he's got elected.
John Dwyer might throw his hat at it again?
Doubt we'll have a Soc Dem candidate.
Aontú has a slight presence around the place so they might run someone.
Same for Renua, might run Gerard O'Donoghue?
People Before Profit could run Tony Walsh but I don't know if he'll go for it again.
Wallace will probably nominate someone to run who could go close.
 

Dame_Enda

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The Wexford People are reporting today that Labour Cllr George Lawlor wants to run in the by election.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Wexford is one of few constituencies where Labour has a shot in a by-election, as the party is still quite strong in the county.

However I think it will be between FF and FG. The wildcard is where Wallace votes will go.
Wallace votes will go broadly back to FF, where they came from. And Labour aren't that strong in Wexford in by-election terms, because Howlin largely controls the organisation and won't allow a strong rival to run in a by-election.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Wallace votes will go broadly back to FF, where they came from. And Labour aren't that strong in Wexford in by-election terms, because Howlin largely controls the organisation and won't allow a strong rival to run in a by-election.
Tell us how FG managed to eliminate the homelessness issue in Wexford, Habappy :)
 

PL2015

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From Wexford's point of view.

FF:
Running Malcolm Byrne most likely. Fancied to win the election because of Byrne's popularity, he nearly got double the quota in the council elections. However this won't go down well with some of the local FF members as Cllr Lisa McDonald had already been chosen to contest the next general election.

LAB:
George Lawlor the most likely candidate. Lawlor is fiercely popular county wide and combined with the Labour support in Wexford I'd give Labour a decent shot to win another seat since this time he won't be splitting Brendan's vote.

FG:
I've heard they're running Verona Murphy. Verona's regarded as a good candidate but there's a video of her that did the rounds a while ago saying 'Wexford has no homelessness crisis'... that won't make her too popular. She'll feature but not too strongly.

SF:
The SF vote in Wexford is going to choke even further in this election. They'll probably run Johnny Mythen, he missed his seat by 50 votes LTO but then lost his council seat by a long way, so I'm expecting another SF death here.

OTHERS:
As said above I don't reckon Leonard Kelly's going for it now that he's got elected.
John Dwyer might throw his hat at it again?
Doubt we'll have a Soc Dem candidate.
Aontú has a slight presence around the place so they might run someone.
Same for Renua, might run Gerard O'Donoghue?
People Before Profit could run Tony Walsh but I don't know if he'll go for it again.
Wallace will probably nominate someone to run who could go close.
Wexford appears to be a bit easier to call than the other by-elections but nothing is ever guaranteed this far.

Fianna Fáil :
Malcolm Byrne would appear to be the obvious candidate here after his strong performance in the Gorey LEA and in the European Elections so he surely has a strong profile in the constituency. He'd certainly be the favourite for the seat considering FF took 26.6% of the vote in 2016 but only one seat. It's interesting that Lisa McDonald has already been selected as a GE candidate but she would still be a good candidate as she held on to her councillor seat in Rosslare.

Fine Gael :
Fine Gael will be hoping for a good result here as they will be defending two seats here next time despite the fact they only polled 23.3% in 2016. It's hard to know if they will select any of their councillors as none of them stand out particularly but Kathleen Codd-Nolan did top the poll in Enniscorthy and John Hegarty did well in Wexford. If they're running Verona Murphy then it'll be ineteresting how she fares as most other parties will be running experience politicians. No chance of Liam Twomey coming back I presume?

Sinn Féin :
As mentioned, Johnny Mythen and Sinn Féin came within 50 votes of a seat last time out but they performed poorly in the local elections here with Mythen losing his seat and SF being reduced to two councillors in the whole county. It's hard to know who'll they go with in the by-election though, Mythen would have the best profile as he contested the last GE but they might opt for one of the councillors in a look to the future for the next GE so either Fionntán Ó'Suilleabhain or Tom Forde. No chance of them winning here but it'll be interesting to see their FPV share.

Labour :
Labour will be hoping for a good result in Howlin's heartland but the locals didn't show much signs of a recovery for them in the county. Howlin polled 14.8% in 2016 so it'll be interesting to see how the party does without his name on the ballot. George Lawlor comfortably topped the poll in the Wexford LEA so would be the obvious candidate while Maura Bell also got elected in that LEA but veteran Robert Ireton lost his seat in Gorey. They should do well but not strong enough for the seat.

Independents4Change :
The party of Mick Wallace who European Parliament election triggered this by-election in the first place. I4C ran a couple of candidates in the locals with none of them getting elected. It'll be interesting to see who he backs if anyone in the by-election.

Other Parties :
Aontú is the only other party with a councillor elected in the county as Jim Codd got elected in Rosslare and they will presumably run him here and hope he can improve then in the GE. Solidarity-PBP have no hope here as former councillor Deirdre Wadding retired from politics at the last locals while 2016 GE candidate for the Social Democrats, Cllr. Leonard Kelly has returned to the Independent ranks.

Independents :
A number of Independents were successful in the recent local elections so it'll be interesting to see if any of them contests the election here. Ger Carthy is an obvious one after he topped the poll in Rosslare and he took 4.4% of the vote in 2016. Patrick Barden also had a very strong result topping the poll in Rosslare.


My early prediction would definitely have to be Fianna Fáil with Fine Gael and Labour behind.
 

lostexpectation

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The Wexford People are reporting today that Labour Cllr George Lawlor wants to run in the by election.
ah so thats why this story has appeared Labour councillor made secret payment to Fine Gael politician after becoming mayor of Wexford town - Independent.ie

a little more background here WEXFORD COUNCILLORS ACCUSED OF EXCHANGING MONEY TO SECURE POSITIONS | South East Radio


Before I knew he was potentially running in a by-election, it seemed strange that they put the parties in the headline, as if would it be ok if they were in the same party.
 
Last edited:

hiding behind a poster

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Tell us how FG managed to eliminate the homelessness issue in Wexford, Habappy :)
You know full well that nobody ever said there was no homelessness issue in Wexford, Lumpy. If you want to debate something, do so on facts and not on misrepresentations.
 

MsDaisyC

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You know full well that nobody ever said there was no homelessness issue in Wexford, Lumpy. If you want to debate something, do so on facts and not on misrepresentations.
Verona Murphy is a nobody now?
 

peader odonnell

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Regarding Malcolm Byrne , surely McDonald would run in The by election having been selected for the GE.
 

locke

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It's always worth remembering that sitting politicians don't want to be defending an unelectable number of seats. At best a politician could lose to a party colleague; at worst problematic vote management could leave fewer seats than were possible.

With that in mind, in Wexford, the sitting FG TDs won't want to see a party colleague take a seat.

Browne will see two as possible and will see being the senior FF politician in the constituency as a platform.

SF and Wallace would be happy to pick up a seat.

As for FG and Labour, what they really don't want is the Wallace camp to take the seat. That could lead to one of the two parties losing a seat to in the General Election. They will be quietly happy if FF can take that seat and it can go back to the comfy days of FF2 FG2 Lab1
 

lff12

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Er - haven't they a seat here? Louise O'Reilly? I agree they have no hope in a byelection - it will be FF with the Greens running second possibly. But I don't believe these byelections will happen anyway - there'll be a GE in the spring at the latest.
SF don't seem to have much of a profile locally, where they did run candidates they struggled to get posters up, suggesting they didn't have local people to do it, which would indicate they are overstretched. Louise is liked though, often by people you wouldn't think for a second would support her.
 

lff12

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Wallace votes will go broadly back to FF, where they came from. And Labour aren't that strong in Wexford in by-election terms, because Howlin largely controls the organisation and won't allow a strong rival to run in a by-election.
Probably correct. Same goes for FF in Daly's seat though. They were averaging 37% upwards in old Dublin North before the fall of Rambo in 1997.
 


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