By-Elections 2019: Wexford, Cork NC, Dublin Fingal & Dublin Midwest.



Donking

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Nov 16, 2013
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56
Normally I'd agree with you but geography is a strange thing. If a Lucan candidate like Lavelle or Casserly ran with Higgins in a general election they would maximise the vote and possibly take Gino Kenny's seat. Higgins on the other hand is made for a by election. She lives in Lucan now and has posters everywhere there, but her vote is absolutely massive in the Rathcoole and Newcastle areas. This along with an FG vote elsewhere will give her an unassailable lead at the top of the poll.

All this talk about Gogarty and his so called profile is not fact based. He only took 2% out of Clondalkin in the last GE and that was without a green party Councillor in Kavanagh. So even if his vote increases on the LE in Lucan and Palmerstown, which it will, you have to divide it in two because he'll get nothing out of people who will vote for Gilligan or Higgins or Kavanagh or Timmons. Clondalkin will keep to itself. Higgins has a party vote and the rural bit sewn up. So she leads, massively.

Tuffy is going to be affected the same way. Her vote in Clondalkin may be the Labour core, but it will be low enough and nowhere near her Lucan vote. Mcnally will pick up votes all over the place, but she won't be in contention either. Same with the likes of PBP and any other independents.

Higgins, then maybe Ward or FF then Gogarty but nobody will transfer enough to overtake the FG candidate. Any other speculation is pointless. Watch when the bookies come out with their odds. They've been spot on before and Emer Higgins will be the odds-on favourite.
Yes spot on William (lavelle), Emer will walk it. You can't help yourself can you? Letting everyone know she lives in Lucan when you know she is discrete about that.
 

Donking

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Nov 16, 2013
Messages
56
Do you really think so? Our man might not make it but I don’t sense any love for Fine Gael. We had a canvass sweep this weekend. I think it’s Paul’s to lose because of the green voice and his profile but Ffers and us will push him close. Fg would be better with a Lucan candidate like Vicki Casserly or Lavelle.
Emer topped the poll in Clondalkin and she has been raising her profile in Lucan and Palmerstown. There is a strong fg vote in Lucan. Casserly would be a weak candidate, a bit of a one trick pony. She took the 3rd seat in lucan and would not have a profile outside of Lucan. Gogarty will so well in the by-election and will possibly come 2nd or 3rd but will not beat Higgins. The full GE will be interesting. The first 3 seats should be clear, Higgins(FG), OBriein(SF) and Curran(FF). The last seat is difficult to predict. Either Kenny or Gogarty. I can't see McNally(SD) or Tuffy(labour) getting close. If FG has a stronger 2nd candidate from Lucan they might be in the running for a 2nd seat. I can't see casserly being strong enough. As much as I can't stand the man, Lavelle would offer a better 2nd seat chance for FG. FF need a stronger running partner for Curran. The running partner would need to have a profile on the Lucan side.
 

Frank Castle

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Jan 29, 2019
Messages
82
You don't understand vote management, do you? Either that or you're ignoring it.
Lavin was the current Fingal Lord Mayor during the locals, and he was still beaten by Tormey, You can skirt around it But Farrell has damaged the FG brand .
Its no wonder Leo hasn't made him a minister.
 

making waves

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Mar 2, 2010
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19,368
Fiona Ryan has been selected as the Solidarity candidate in the Cork North Central by-election


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jdwex

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Sep 20, 2005
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289
Lisa McDonald is not a happy camper (from The Wexford People)


Re-iterating that she will not canvass for Cllr. Byrne, she said: ‘I think it would be the absolute height of cheek to ask any of the party delegates including my good self to canvass, particularly when the vacancy exists in south Wexford and they didn’t have the courtesy to run someone from south Wexford.’
‘I have absolutely no interest in supporting what is a vanity project. I have enough work to be doing down here for my constituents on the issues that matter to them. I’m going to forget about this side show for a while’. said Cllr. McDonald.
 

midlander12

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Jul 29, 2008
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Lisa McDonald is not a happy camper (from The Wexford People)
Sums up the parochial nonsense that passes for politics in this country. There is no TD for 'South Wexford' - they are supposed to represent the entire constituency and indeed legislate on behalf of the national electorate. Byrne is obviously the best candidate for the byelection on the basis of his Euro performance.
 

Baron von Biffo

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May 16, 2007
Messages
12,574
Sums up the parochial nonsense that passes for politics in this country. There is no TD for 'South Wexford' - they are supposed to represent the entire constituency and indeed legislate on behalf of the national electorate. Byrne is obviously the best candidate for the byelection on the basis of his Euro performance.
Quotas breed a sense of entitlement. She's a woman, there are quotas for women, therefore the fact that he's the best candidate is irrelevant.
 


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