By-Elections 2019: Wexford, Cork NC, Dublin Fingal & Dublin Midwest.

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,238
Fine Gael, with Fianna Fáil support have been pushing the Commonwealth for years. I wonder will they continue with this policy?
Given the rise of Sinn Féin in Dublin and Cork.
Maybe as a form of outreach to those in the North need some reassurance about steps towards a united Ireland? Sinn Féin's approach is somewhat preaching to the converted.

That said, I see it as a concession I would make in negotiations to achieve a United Ireland, not something I would do unilaterally now.
 


Rural

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 28, 2007
Messages
27,999
I remember when SF used to warn about the "politics of condemnation" during the Troubles. Its ironic that they are so keen on it now when it comes to peaceful exercise of speech.

║ Your post above has absolutely nothing to do with my post that you quoted. What has anything I said in my post to do with Sinn Fein of now or yore?
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
54,953

║ Your post above has absolutely nothing to do with my post that you quoted. What has anything I said in my post to do with Sinn Fein of now or yore?
I'm making a point that it is ironic on their part since they are among the critics.

But I define racism more narrowly than some. I am opposed to racism, if that means hating other ethnic groups or discriminating against them on ethnic grounds.

I do not accept though that security vetting is racist, if they are coming from a country that is a state sponsor of terrorism, which Syria and many of its warring factions most certainly are. That is not racial discrimination as I see it.
 

BACKTOBASICS

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 22, 2014
Messages
3,188
<5% of the vote when Clare Daly champion of the underdog wasnt around.
IIRC last time they got 10% and the last seat and Daly received 20%. So whereever the Daly vote has gone it doesn't seem attracted to SF.
Daly's vote went to the Greens another left wing socialist party and a lot more left wing than Daly, who is a good politician to be fair to her. The Greens's will 'green' the country to a standstill if they can. They will try to stop farmers producing livestock, drivers from driving their cars, and people from lighting their fires - all at the expense of the people including the people who voted for them. To be honest, I don't think many of the people who voted for the Green's have a clue that they are a Marxist/Socialist party and will, and have, destroyed Irish society whenever they got into power with any of the main parties - think the Bank bailout.
 
Last edited:

PBP voter

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 18, 2015
Messages
9,424

kbcav

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 11, 2011
Messages
1,249
Micheal D will be eliminated....


People in glass houses.

Tell it to Gavin Reilly. I took the info from his Twitter. :)

That comment was at 9.40 on Saturday morning after the Lucan and Palmerstown boxes were open.
At 10 am when the Clondalkin boxes were being tallied it was a completely different story but Ward was coming in in third place in the Lucan and Palmerstown boxes which was a good sign.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
54,953
The New Ross standard is reporting that Verona Murphy may run as an Independent if she is removed from the FG ticket. A party source says she has been receiving hundreds of supportive emails since her defeat, and could easily raise €50,000 within a few days "such is the level of support she has".
 

MsDaisyC

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 3, 2017
Messages
4,154
The New Ross standard is reporting that Verona Murphy may run as an Independent if she is removed from the FG ticket. A party source says she has been receiving hundreds of supportive emails since her defeat, and could easily raise €50,000 within a few days "such is the level of support she has".
Is that party source Murphy herself?
 

wombat

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 16, 2007
Messages
33,514
The New Ross standard is reporting that Verona Murphy may run as an Independent if she is removed from the FG ticket. A party source says she has been receiving hundreds of supportive emails since her defeat, and could easily raise €50,000 within a few days "such is the level of support she has".
People voted for the tax dodger so why not?
 

MsDaisyC

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 3, 2017
Messages
4,154
People voted for the tax dodger so why not?
She hasn't sorted out any medical cards or got de roads fixed for de locals... She may get to keen at a few funerals between now and the next election, but she'll have to come out with something really racist and dog whistling to get any notice by then.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,238
I can't see how running as an Independent will work. She will just find out how many of her votes are FG votes.

The current seat balance has become wrong in Wexford though. The TDs are skewed north and east. Admittedly the east has the bulk of the population, so this isn't so surprising.

And yet, it doesn't seem to make sense for FG or FF to put in a southern candidate as their vote isn't really strong enough for a 3 candidate strategy (FF could just about risk someone from the Wexford town/Rosslare area). SF are stuck with a candidate from Enniscorthy, which is already represented beyond its population base. Do Labour chance 2 candidates from Wexford town and hope a massive vote there and Rosslare takes them home; there is at least little risk of losing their seat. The ideally located candidate is the Green candidate, but 6% and the Greens not being organised enough to run a single Local Election candidate speaks its ow volumes. Codd, the Aontú candidate is also good geographically, but coming off a low base.

It's one of those constituencies where one of the assumptions will have to turn out to be wrong, but it's hard to identify which one.
 

MOSS1

Active member
Joined
Feb 14, 2016
Messages
280
I can't see how running as an Independent will work. She will just find out how many of her votes are FG votes.

The current seat balance has become wrong in Wexford though. The TDs are skewed north and east. Admittedly the east has the bulk of the population, so this isn't so surprising.

And yet, it doesn't seem to make sense for FG or FF to put in a southern candidate as their vote isn't really strong enough for a 3 candidate strategy (FF could just about risk someone from the Wexford town/Rosslare area). SF are stuck with a candidate from Enniscorthy, which is already represented beyond its population base. Do Labour chance 2 candidates from Wexford town and hope a massive vote there and Rosslare takes them home; there is at least little risk of losing their seat. The ideally located candidate is the Green candidate, but 6% and the Greens not being organised enough to run a single Local Election candidate speaks its ow volumes. Codd, the Aontú candidate is also good geographically, but coming off a low base.

It's one of those constituencies where one of the assumptions will have to turn out to be wrong, but it's hard to identify which one.
Is the Green candidate not based in Gorey which is where Malcolm Byrne and Michael D'arcy are based? Since 1987 Gorey has alternated between no TD and one TD every second election. It did have 2 seats with Lorcan Allen and D'arcy Senior in the first 2 elections of the 1980s. Other than the June 1981 election Enniscorthy has held two and in 2016 had 3 of the top 6. New Ross only occasionally holds one seat. The Rosslare and WX town districts have about one third of the population but it's too Labour centric. Lawlor had it pretty much to himself last week and got 20%, competition will be greater next time although I don't think Lisa McDonald has a big vote in her.
 

MOSS1

Active member
Joined
Feb 14, 2016
Messages
280
I can't see how running as an Independent will work. She will just find out how many of her votes are FG votes.

The current seat balance has become wrong in Wexford though. The TDs are skewed north and east. Admittedly the east has the bulk of the population, so this isn't so surprising.

And yet, it doesn't seem to make sense for FG or FF to put in a southern candidate as their vote isn't really strong enough for a 3 candidate strategy (FF could just about risk someone from the Wexford town/Rosslare area). SF are stuck with a candidate from Enniscorthy, which is already represented beyond its population base. Do Labour chance 2 candidates from Wexford town and hope a massive vote there and Rosslare takes them home; there is at least little risk of losing their seat. The ideally located candidate is the Green candidate, but 6% and the Greens not being organised enough to run a single Local Election candidate speaks its ow volumes. Codd, the Aontú candidate is also good geographically, but coming off a low base.

It's one of those constituencies where one of the assumptions will have to turn out to be wrong, but it's hard to identify which one.
Also Labour are reliant on WX town, their vote in Rosslare isn't great. You could see it on transfers last week when for instance Verona transferred more heavily to Malcolm Byrne.

The other interesting thing about WX is that the FG vote is at something of an historic low. Verona marginally increased it on 2016 alright but both results were below the 2002 meltdown. Bear in mind also that there was no Mick Wallace to eat into the party votes this time so their vote should have gone up anyway. There is a risk for them that herself and Kehoe split the vote and cost the second seat if there's a challenger from the pack. It's hard to see who that challenger would be however unless SF staged a big recovery to get Johnny Mythen back in the race. If they do hold both seats there's a real chance with the profile she's built that she'll get the 9 or 10% that'll put her in the mix. No way though will FG want the publicity that goes with her nationally.

Alternatively if she goes independent who knows.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,238
Is the Green candidate not based in Gorey which is where Malcolm Byrne and Michael D'arcy are based?
I thought she was Carrick on Bannow, but I’m not in the constituency (just have ties) and will readily admit I didn’t look it up.
 


New Threads

Most Replies

Top