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Call your local LEA

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,180
I'd be interested to hear how other posters think their LEA will go in the local elections and a bit of background on the LEA. We can see how accurate we are and maybe see if there's a trend across predictions.

To be started

Cork City SE is effectively a new six seat LEA, carved out of the old seven seat Cork City SE LEA and ten seat Ballincollig-Carrigaline. There are more sitting councilors standing than there are seats available. Current sitting councilors standing are - FG 2 FF 2 SF 1 Ind 1 Soc Dem 1.

Before the campaign, I think the feeling was it would go FG 2 FF 2 SF 1 and one between Ind/Labour/Soc Dem

A few things happened though. Locally FG and FF put forward lousy slates. In particular, Nicholas O'Keeffe, who was easily FF's best option decided to retire. Nationally, there seems to have been a drop in FG support and a rise in Green support.

Where that leaves us is with the certainties of at least a seat for FG, FF and SF, a highly probably seat for an Independent (Kieran McCarthy) and a last two seats that will be contested between FG2, FF2, Lab, Grn and Soc Dem. A bit depends on who FF2 is on first preferences; if it's Desmond she will pick up enough transfers to get in; if Shannon that's doubtful.

Gut feeling is FF 2 FG 1 SF 1 Ind 1 Lab 1.

In all honesty I wouldn't be surprised if there was a flip between FF and FG or between Lab and Grn though.
 


Round tower

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 9, 2011
Messages
7,106

Fascinating read with just 36 hours left till the LE and where every vote count, often in tight votes it may come down to which candidate is ahead of whome
 

SummerBoy

Member
Joined
Mar 25, 2019
Messages
11
My take on the North Side Cork City as follows;
North East
FF 2 seats, FG 1 seat and SF 1 and Ind 1 seat definitely. Then the last seat in this order between WP Tynan, FG O'Neill, SF, Greens and Labour.
North West
FF 2 seats, SF 2seats definitely. Then the last two in this order between them.
FG 2 candidates, IND Burka O'Callaghan and SOLIDARITY, Ryan. Too close to call .
 

jacko

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 6, 2009
Messages
2,673
My take on the North Side Cork City as follows;
North East
FF 2 seats, FG 1 seat and SF 1 and Ind 1 seat definitely. Then the last seat in this order between WP Tynan, FG O'Neill, SF, Greens and Labour.
North West
FF 2 seats, SF 2seats definitely. Then the last two in this order between them.
FG 2 candidates, IND Burka O'Callaghan and SOLIDARITY, Ryan. Too close to call .
I agree with your call on the first five seats but O'Neill will be well clear of Kavanagh for the FG seat.

Las seat will go to Maher (Lab) - will pick up a lot of transfers from Greens and SocDems and he's run a very high profile campaign
 

Round tower

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Joined
Feb 9, 2011
Messages
7,106
Mayo - Ballina Local area
2 - FG - O Hara and Munnelly
2 - FF - Loftus and Reape
1 - Indp. - Duffy
6th seat between Horkan FG, Moore FF and Weir Indp.
 

Degeneration X

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 14, 2017
Messages
7,113
Howth-Malahide - Fingal (7 seats):

O'Brien FF
McDonagh Lab
Lavin FG
O'Callaghan SD
Healy Green
Guerin Ind
Ni Laoi SF
 

SummerBoy

Member
Joined
Mar 25, 2019
Messages
11
I agree with your call on the first five seats but O'Neill will be well clear of Kavanagh for the FG seat.

Las seat will go to Maher (Lab) - will pick up a lot of transfers from Greens and SocDems and he's run a very high profile campaign
Yes J, interesting ob. You could be very right but are you saying that FG will get 2 seats or O'Neill is ahead of Kavanagh ?
 


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