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Can demographics deliver a United Ireland?

Indyjoe

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Many people now look to the continuing increase of the nationalist population to bring about a united Ireland.

At the moment it seems that its about 24% regard themselves as nationalist, 38% regard themselves as unionists, and 35% as neither
(Times Survey 2003 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey)

It seems 30% of the catholic population are not in favour of unification.

And asked what they would like the future of the north to be, 23% would be in favour of the republic, while 59% are in favour of the union (The Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2004)

So if in 20 yrs or so the nationalist population begins to equal the unionist, it wouldnt be a case of simply convincing a few unionists to jump ship, we would also have to convince people who regard themselves as nationalists that their future is in a free Ireland.
And as normalisation continues in the north, will people not be more and more content with the status quo?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_o ... rn_Ireland
 


Whig

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Nov 28, 2005
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I hope it doesn't happen simply because of a demographic shift, I'd like to see a proper attempt at reaching a consensus with all traditions in the island.
 

Ciaran

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i have alway thought the demographic argument to be a poor one. It is my personal opinion that the current process aims to expand the catholic middle class and provide long lasting stablity. As we all know no section is more conservative than middle class catholics/nationalists and if they can have an Irish dimension to British rule then i believe they are less likely to upset the status quo. Thats just my opinion.
 

holdini

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A UI can only happen with a revival in the Protestant Republican tradition in the North; many of the actions of the PIRA campaign didn't exactly help that cause....
 

Trojanhorse

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But isn't the protestant popoulation in decline in the Northern half of this country??
Economics is what will create a UI not an ideological belief.
 

Ciaran

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I would doubt that there is any significant difference in the birth/death rates between protestants and catholics but i could be wrong anyone any stats?
 

32

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It would be unfortunate for Irish unity to come about via a sectarian head count, after all, that is how partition occured in the first place.

There is also the crass assumption that every 6 county Catholic is automatically Nationalist, and every 6 county Protestant is automatically Unionist.

And that's before we consider the new Irish...
 

DSCH

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shaneholden said:
A UI can only happen with a revival in the Protestant Republican tradition in the North; many of the actions of the PIRA campaign didn't exactly help that cause....
Tom Pauline for president!
 

ireland2004

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I remember being bored in school in upper sixth and looking at demographics and coming to the coclusion that between 2010 and 2020 approximatly 200,000 unionists will die wheras approximatly 75,000 nationalists will... I don't remember how I came to that conclusion but if it's accurate then it's a step in the right direction. :lol:
 

Indyjoe

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Economics is what will create a UI not an ideological belief.
We are talking about a people that have allowed their parliament to use torture, discrimination and violence in order to mantain the sectarian satus quo. I cant see them disassociating themselves from their past just for a few extra quid.
 

Trojanhorse

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Indyjoe said:
Economics is what will create a UI not an ideological belief.
We are talking about a people that have allowed their parliament to use torture, discrimination and violence in order to mantain the sectarian satus quo. I cant see them disassociating themselves from their past just for a few extra quid.
:roll:

I always knew shinners lived in a box I just didnt think that there were no air holes.
 

DSCH

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Indyjoe said:
Economics is what will create a UI not an ideological belief.
We are talking about a people that have allowed their parliament to use torture, discrimination and violence in order to mantain the sectarian satus quo. I cant see them disassociating themselves from their past just for a few extra quid.
Just like the shinners weren't won over to unionism despite living off the fat of the (British) land!
 

Trojanhorse

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Indyjoe said:
So if the freestate economy bust you'd join the United Kingdom if you could?

But its not is it....
 

pogo

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ireland2004 said:
I remember being bored in school in upper sixth and looking at demographics and coming to the coclusion that between 2010 and 2020 approximatly 200,000 unionists will die wheras approximatly 75,000 nationalists will... I don't remember how I came to that conclusion but if it's accurate then it's a step in the right direction. :lol:
Uninists or Protestants :?:

I believe you could find age demographics for religion, but not for political affiliation.

Do you have any statistics to prove me wrong :?:
 

Rocky

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No I don't think it will. To the best of my knowledge the numbers of Catholics being born is similar to the number of Protestants being born today. The gap is still pretty big as well. On top of that most polls show that large numbers of Catholics would vote against a UI and that very few Protestant would vote for a UI. It’s also a very bad and unstable way to bring about a UI.
 

Ciaran

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Apr 20, 2005
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i'd say statistically the majority in both Britain and Ireland want British disengagement however that is not what has happened. Statistics are irrelevant in many cases.
 

JCSkinner

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Indyjoe said:
Economics is what will create a UI not an ideological belief.
We are talking about a people that have allowed their parliament to use torture, discrimination and violence in order to mantain the sectarian satus quo. I cant see them disassociating themselves from their past just for a few extra quid.
Strangely enough, I can. The most impoverished areas of Belfast are the places where the PUP actually have some influence and gain votes. They are the same party, though allied to loyalist terror organisations, to have shown the most ability to engage with nationalists as partners and equals. Why? Because they have learnt that co-operation is the best way to propel their constituents out of the poverty traps they are in.
The key is to assist unionists in separating their own sense of identity from that of the island of Britain so that they can clearly perceive the requirement upon them to take control of their own destinies.
Poverty is a great reason to try thinking outside the box, and I expect that the first signs that Unionism wishes to negotiate its place within an all-island structure will come from the poorer parts of Loyalist urban areas, and not from the self-serving, venal hypocrites that clog the upper strata of the DUP and UUP.
 

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