Can demographics deliver a United Ireland?

mangaire2

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On reflection ...........................if ROI left the EU and a federal system of government for GB and Ireland existed with London only holding the responsibility for national defence ,as much power as possible on key issues that matter to people pushed down to a local level (say local council) -would ROI citizens be interested in that type of relationship .
Or has being your own country now so ingrained that a different style of government/relationships between close neighbours is impossible.
On the surface I see little difference between most of the parties in both jurisdictions , a cycle of centre right /centre left etc etc mixed up with good old parochialism.
When you actually discuss with people from Birmingham /Sligo/Antrim - most all agree on what they want from life and respect each other .
Ian Paisley's friend and mentor the great Dessie Boal suggested this federal solution in the early 70's and he was ahead of his time on many matters as well as being fine legal brain .
"with London only holding the responsibility for national defence"
LOL !!!!!
cop yourself on.
nah - I think that most would agree that Ireland has provided far, far too much canon fodder for England,
& the last thing we need is to provide more.
 


Socratus O' Pericles

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The UUP’s 2016 manifesto states: “There was a time when we were net contributors to Her Majesty’s Treasury, now Stormont is dependent on an annual £11 billion subvention from Westminster every year.”

This claim is based off Professor Bob Rowthorn’s research, which describes how when Northern Ireland was created it was seen as “an integral and self-supporting component of Britain’s Imperial system”, generating a fiscal surplus. Thus a regular “Imperial Contribution” was paid by the province, until the economic crises of the 1930s.

How dependent is Stormont on Westminster subvention? - FactCheckNI

I was reading some of T.K Whitaker's notes on the crisis of the late 1960's early 1970's, he saw a UI as a long term proposition.

At the time he said:

“Every effort should be made in any Govt. statements from Dublin to avoid identifying the Govt. solely with the Catholics or Nationalists of Northern Ireland and to make it clear that the aim of a United Ireland would be a fair deal for all – indeed that the position of Northern Ireland Protestants would be particularly respected. A special effort is needed to reassure the many moderate Protestants who otherwise may be driven to side with the extremists, under threat, as they see it, of losing their ‘freedom, religion and laws’.”
This is effectively where we are at and have been for twenty or so years.


Demographics and Brexit are changing the scene with, to my mind, the prospect of a UI coming into clearer focus- I wonder where we are going to get 11bn + the "persuasive premium"?
 

Murto

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Demographics and Brexit are changing the scene with, to my mind, the prospect of a UI coming into clearer focus- I wonder where we are going to get 11bn + the "persuasive premium"?[/QUOTE]

I think that the £11Bn is part canard at least. How is it measured? Does it include pro rata 'Royal Family' costs, XS UK defence costs, public service pension costs, from pension rights accrued under British administration. I expect that the Brits would be only too happy to pay a tapering subventions, as a small cost for getting the 'Irish Question' off their backs. Having lived there in the '80s, very few interested in 'Norn Ireland'. The EU might help also (as well they might, having 'austerityised' us for the last decade.).

A reputable economic study might make clear whether there would be an economic dividend from unification. (I am quite uncertain as to the provenence of what has been published so far, although Paul Gosling's '10 year plan' will be worth a read, I think.)
 

NMunsterman

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Demographics and Brexit are changing the scene with, to my mind, the prospect of a UI coming into clearer focus- I wonder where we are going to get 11bn + the "persuasive premium"?




Yes, Paul Gosling's economic plan makes sense - but his idea that everyone in Ireland would have automatic British citizenship post-Re-unification is just silly and a non-runner - we simply extend the present GFA arrangements for the 6 north-eastern counties for those who wish to identify as British which will equate to about 10% of the population of the country.
 

SideysGhost

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I think that the £11Bn is part canard at least. How is it measured? Does it include pro rata 'Royal Family' costs, XS UK defence costs, public service pension costs, from pension rights accrued under British administration.
It's actually allegedly £9.2 billion, though you will hear anything from £4bn to £20bn bandied about. But if it is £9.2bn then the answer to your question is - almost all of it, as it happens. Ze Germans have done a study at the behest of the Seanad earlier this year.

Highlights include:

  • "Non-identifiable expenditure" of £2.9billion includes Northern Ireland’s share of UK Defence Expenditure, UK Debt Interest, International service, UK contribution to the EU, British Royal family etc.
  • A £1.1 billion "accounting adjustment". I sh!t you not.
  • £2.8 bn p.a. of public sector pension payments accrued by Britain in the past by retired public servants
  • If public sector numbers converged to similar numbers as the south that would save another £1.7bn though that might be slightly on the optimistic side.


However over a few years and with the consequent economic synergies and repair to the damage and distortions created by the Border across huge swathes of both jurisdictions....

In addition I have strong suspicions that various categories of taxation raised due to economic activity in NornIrn simply are not counted on the revenue side e.g. VAT and corporation tax paid by UK companies operating in the North. Like say Tesco.

Turns out the eleventybazillionsquillion magical inflating subvention bogeyman just doesn't actually exist.
 

Talk Back

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Demographics and Brexit are changing the scene with, to my mind, the prospect of a UI coming into clearer focus- I wonder where we are going to get 11bn + the "persuasive premium"?

The Irish Government says we can afford to reunify our country - and Ireland north and south, will be better off as a result.

Dail Eireann have been working on elements of a reunification paper through its 'Joint Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement'. They produced a paper last August called 'Uniting Ireland & its People in Peace & Prosperity'

Listen @ 25. Audioboom / A leading academic suggests significant shift in the population here - are we now on the countdown to a new Ireland? [MENTION=35629]alexk[/MENTION]ane221b and [MENTION=36920]chrisa[/MENTION]donnelly discuss #BBCNolan

Read. http://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/committee/dail/32/joint_committee_on_the_implementation_of_the_good_friday_agreement/reports/2017/2017-08-02_brexit-and-the-future-of-ireland-uniting-ireland-and-its-people-in-peace-and-prosperity_en.pdf

A few weeks ago on BBC radio, Paul Gosling, an economic writer, researcher and broadcaster of some repute talked about the 6 county economic benefit following the reunification of Ireland and the ending of British rule.

Listen @ 1.46. BBC Radio Ulster - Good Morning Ulster, 13/08/2018

And here is the Paul Gosling report on the benefits of the reunification of Ireland for the 6 counties. The economic effect of an all-island economy | Paul Gosling

"This report concludes that there is a significant positive potential economic benefit from Irish reunification, particularly for the citizens of Northern Ireland. It is recommended that preparations begin now in accordance with Article 3 of the Irish constitution, as amended following the Good Friday Agreement. Progress towards achieving an all island economy should be reviewed annually by the Oireachtas."

The 'Southern Ireland' State sits atop the European growth charts, while the 'Northern Ireland' statelet is down at the bottom. EY’s Economic Eye, Winter 2017

What with Brexit and the decline of Unionism, British rule in Ireland is coming to an end - and soon. It's time for Unionists to accept their fate, and work with the rest of us to make Ireland a better place for all.
 

DJP

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While 50,000 more people voted for the DUP than SF in the last Westminster elections Unionists outnumber Nationalists in the over 65 age group by approx 2:1 and with approx 15,000 people dying every year in NI SF may well be the biggest party in NI within the next around 5 years! With Brexit (assuming it goes ahead) and the loss of an MEP seat for the party in NI and the recent partnership which may develop further between FF and the SDLP though they may not become the biggest party in Ireland though on an all-island basis- they won the 2014 EE in Ireland. In the event of a united Ireland and if Stormont remains and represents all of Ulster of a federal basis SF would still I think be the biggest party in Ulster.
 

Glaucon

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While 50,000 more people voted for the DUP than SF in the last Westminster elections Unionists outnumber Nationalists in the over 65 age group by approx 2:1 and with approx 15,000 people dying every year in NI SF may well be the biggest party in NI within the next around 5 years! With Brexit (assuming it goes ahead) and the loss of an MEP seat for the party in NI and the recent partnership which may develop further between FF and the SDLP though they may not become the biggest party in Ireland though on an all-island basis- they won the 2014 EE in Ireland. In the event of a united Ireland and if Stormont remains and represents all of Ulster of a federal basis SF would still I think be the biggest party in Ulster.
If, buts and maybes. The reality is that people from a Protestant demographic background remain in the majority and Unionists would rather eat grass (and may well do so with Brexit) than join a united Ireland. The only hope is to wait for them to die off and let demographics to do what needs to be done; but that's at least another generation in the making. Northern Ireland will remain in the UK for the forseeable future. Sinn Féin is selling dangerous fantasises to the Nationalist electorate and will be to blame if people turn to violence in frustration.
 
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AhNowStop

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If, buts and maybes. The reality is that people from a Protestant demographic background remain in the majority and Unionists would rather eat grass (and may well do so with Brexit) than join a united Ireland. The only hope is to wait from them to die off and demographics to do what needs to be done, but that's at least another generation in the making. Northern Ireland will remain in the UK for the forseeable future. Sinn Féin is selling dangerous fantasises to the Nationalist electorate and will be to blame if people turn to violence in frustration.
Lets say we have a border poll in 2 years and lose, then another one in ten years and win .. Thats democracy in action .. thats not the shinners' fault.
 

Glaucon

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Lets say we have a border poll in 2 years and lose, then another one in ten years and win .. Thats democracy in action .. thats not the shinners' fault.
SF is selling a pup to Nationalist voters by making it seem that a Yes vote is a realistic possibility. If "Yes" to unity gets 45 per cent, it'll be doing well.
 

between the bridges

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Should be all done and dusted by 2016, oh wait...

Tbf tis very kind of yez to wait until after the glorious centenary triumph oophs moi means celebrations...
 

Antóin Mac Comháin

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If, buts and maybes. The reality is that people from a Protestant demographic background remain in the majority and Unionists would rather eat grass (and may well do so with Brexit) than join a united Ireland. The only hope is to wait from them to die off and demographics to do what needs to be done, but that's at least another generation in the making. Northern Ireland will remain in the UK for the forseeable future. Sinn Féin is selling dangerous fantasises to the Nationalist electorate and will be to blame if people turn to violence in frustration.
It is what it is, but sectarian headcounts are the antithesis of Irish Republicanism. In theory, a re-united Ireland is achievable by winning over a fraction of the so-called unionist population, considering how close the Unionist and Nationalist voting blocs are. In practice, there must be something fundamentally wrong at the heart of Republicanism, that it has failed to do that. The Nationalist voting bloc+ 5% of the Unionist vote = Majority. The question the Republican Collective needs to ask itself is why that gap can not be bridged, despite the fact that a majority of both sides voted in favor of staying in the EU. There is also the danger that the much-mooted demographic shift will go into reverse. Look what happened to SF at the last election, granted it was a one-off, in any other party it would have led to a change in leadership. Of course SF are going to get a bounce at the next locals, but it's not going to be a bounce from where they were prior to that election. In theory, the mobilization of the sleeping vote should also be enough to bridge the gap. Only two regional constituencies east of the lakes have DUP majorities, and one of them is inclusive of the TUV. Separatist Parties now hold 46 of 123 seats available between them within the borders of the UK, so in theory, a Republican Congress and a formal alliance with the SNP, Plaid Cymru, Mebyon Kernow and Mec Vannin would have a majority with another 17 seats. Are Republican organizations and parties outside of SF that stuck up their own backsides that they view their opposition to the EU as a greater concern to Independence from Britain? The average Joe doesn't differentiate between one group and the other, because most people aren't really interested in politics, and therefore a bomb in Derry will ultimately cost SF votes in Dublin 4, and it's also an obstacle to a formal alliance such as the aforementioned. How utterly self-defeating is that, and the people engaging in it, clearly haven't thought any of this through. Granted some of it is reactive, which is understandable to a point, but if there are no strategic gains being made, what's the f-king point? To deprive the next generation of Republicanism of it's brightest and best in order to rinse and repeat the same sad tragedies and failures of the past is beyond criminal, and leaders are f-k all use to people in prison or the grave.
 

Antóin Mac Comháin

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Lets say we have a border poll in 2 years and lose, then another one in ten years and win .. Thats democracy in action .. thats not the shinners' fault.
SF is selling a pup to Nationalist voters by making it seem that a Yes vote is a realistic possibility. If "Yes" to unity gets 45 per cent, it'll be doing well.
Accepting defeat before it happens isn't going to inspire confidence. The question should be how to get all the groups to put their petty little BS aside, to think of the bigger picture, and how to win over enough of the unionist community to win a referendum.
 

AhNowStop

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SF is selling a pup to Nationalist voters by making it seem that a Yes vote is a realistic possibility. If "Yes" to unity gets 45 per cent, it'll be doing well.
All the shinners are doing is following their ultimate goal and tbf the success or not of an imminent border poll will IMHO rest with how Brexit goes .... I know plenty of people who are most certainly not shinners who now want a border poll within the next 2 years .. people are simply fed up to the back teeth with the DUP and their antics .. and dont forget, if Brexit goes bad a lot of pragmatic unionists will have had enough of them too..

Its not as cut & dried as you think .. well, thats the way I see it anyhow
 

AhNowStop

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Accepting defeat before it happens isn't going to inspire confidence. The question should be how to get all the groups to put their petty little BS aside, to think of the bigger picture, and how to win over enough of the unionist community to win a referendum.
I agree ... and I think the DUP/Brexit are doing the job better than any nationalist ever could
 

Glaucon

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Accepting defeat before it happens isn't going to inspire confidence. The question should be how to get all the groups to put their petty little BS aside, to think of the bigger picture, and how to win over enough of the unionist community to win a referendum.
The Unionist community isn't there to be "won over". Are you there to be "won over" for the Union? Unionist outreach is a sham, its sole motivation is to show Castle Catholics that Sinn Féin are no longer to be feared.
 

Glaucon

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All the shinners are doing is following their ultimate goal and tbf the success or not of an imminent border poll will IMHO rest with how Brexit goes .... I know plenty of people who are most certainly not shinners who now want a border poll within the next 2 years .. people are simply fed up to the back teeth with the DUP and their antics .. and dont forget, if Brexit goes bad a lot of pragmatic unionists will have had enough of them too..

Its not as cut & dried as you think .. well, thats the way I see it anyhow
It's a question of nationalism. Irish nationalists aren't there to be won over to the Union and British nationalists (which is what Unionists are) aren't there to be won over to a united Ireland. The Alliance types who are persuadable are a small minority and won't swing it either way. The rest don't care and won't bother voting.
 

between the bridges

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So many experts on Unionists, some of yez even know one...
 

Antóin Mac Comháin

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I agree ... and I think the DUP/Brexit are doing the job better than any nationalist ever could
We shouldn't have to have a referendum in the first place, but it is what it is. I know it's easier said than done, but the DUP don't have 1 million votes nor anything like it. They have 250,000 give or take a few thousand, which amounts to a majority in two regional constituencies. Although the Alliance Party are a Unionist Party, the trickle of votes away from Right Wing Unionism, is an indicator of a change in mindset. As I've said, I know it's easier said than done, but I think the focus should be on winning over the unionists as opposed to trying to out-breed them. That's my two cents on it.
 


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