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Can we say we are now over the worst of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis?


sport02

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Some months ago Draghi introduced his OMT program. A joint venture between the ESM and the ECB. Thing is, it has not been availed of to date by any country.

But take Spain for example, Barclays on four or five occasions between Sep and Dec 2012 said to expect a Spanish bailout in the very near term, it never materialised. This week, they changed their tune and say there is a 60% in the whole of 2013.
Widening their time frame while reducing the odds of it happening significantly.
Fabrizio Goria ‏@FGoria
Barclays now Sees A 60% Chance Of Spain's ESM Aid Request In 2013
Today Goldman said to expect Spanish five year bonds to retract to 3% in the near term.

Today Spanish ten year hit a low of 4.84% (7% and above last summer)
http://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=spain ten yeaer bond&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CC0QFjAA&url=http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPG10YR:IND&ei=BE3wUNnoF9CXhQeRsoD4AQ&usg=AFQjCNEB0A_B4KzH14Wpy_M3lfUoP5tvuA&bvm=bv.1357700187,d.ZG4
Italy hit a low of 4.08% today. (7% last year)
http://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=italy ten yeaer bond&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CC0QFjAA&url=http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND&ei=PE3wUKSBGdS7hAe5qIHYDw&usg=AFQjCNFqBt-36YKWoogtoTvTSAdx1gTh-A

Some commentators on the Vincent show last year warned about France, Austria and Belgium.
All their ten year yields around 2% as of now.

Greece is still in the euro, no one has availed of OMT and IF Ireland gets a PN and legacy debt deal, we should return to the markets, so are we over the worst regarding the Sovereign part of the crisis?
 
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Basildon Bob

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When you say "we", do you mean Ireland, or the EU as a whole?

If it's just Ireland, then I think the sovereign part of the financial mess is over and if it ain't, your freindly neighbour will help out again.

If you mean the wider EU, Spain, Greece, Italy, are still in one hell of a mess, so I'm not so sure they're outta the woods yet.

What I keep asking myself is, how much longer would the German taxpayers continue to bailout other countries. The answer, I believe, is not for much longer.
 

Analyzer

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Hoorman von Rompey and Operation Barbarrosso can say the crisis is over. The idiots in Brussels can declare officially that the problem is fixed.

Yes, they can.

Because that is the type of nonsense opinions that he have come to expect from those idiots.

It is the same as all the other meaningless drivel that they have produced.
 

Dublin 4

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Pretty fkin far from over... :|

A further default on the remaining privately held debt would provide little relief, given that now more than 75% of the total debt stock is held by official creditors," the report said. "In our view, only a reduction in principal on outstanding official debt would lead to a semblance of sustainability in Greece's debt.


Greek Debt Unsustainable Without Official Sector Losses -Moody's - WSJ.com

Ireland's reform policies have been widely praised for helping it emerge from the crisis, but the truth is bleaker. If the government fails to get European taxpayers to assume some of the risk of its ailing banking sector, the country could soon require another bailout.


Ireland Seeks to Have Europe Share in Risk of Ailing Banking Sector - SPIEGEL ONLINE
 

sport02

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When you say "we", do you mean Ireland, or the EU as a whole?

If it's just Ireland, then I think the sovereign part of the financial mess is over and if it ain't, your freindly neighbour will help out again.

If you mean the wider EU, Spain, Greece, Italy, are still in one hell of a mess, so I'm not so sure they're outta the woods yet.

What I keep asking myself is, how much longer would the German taxpayers continue to bailout other countries. The answer, I believe, is not for much longer.
If a PN deal and a legacy deal happened in 2013, I agree.

But there was so much talk about Italy and Spain bringing the whole house down, yet their odds of requesting aid are coming in. Yes we have Cyprus and possible Slovenia for a bailout. A top up for Portugal.
 

Analyzer

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Who do I believe ?

The idiots in the regulation factory in Brussels or Zero Hedge on this question ???

I reckon Zero Hedge....

20 Facts About The Collapse Of Europe That Everyone Should Know | Zero Hedge

The following are 20 facts about the collapse of Europe that everyone should know...

#1 10 Months: Manufacturing activity in both France and Germany has contracted for 10 months in a row.

#2 11.8 Percent: The unemployment rate in the eurozone has now risen to 11.8 percent – a brand new all-time high.

#3 17 Months: In November, Italy experienced the sharpest decline in retail sales that it had experienced in 17 months.

#4 20 Months: Manufacturing activity in Spain has contracted for 20 months in a row.

#5 20 Percent: It is estimated that bad loans now make up approximately 20 percent of all domestic loans in the Greek banking system at this point.

#6 22 Percent: A whopping 22 percent of the entire population of Ireland lives in jobless households.

#7 26 Percent: The unemployment rate in Greece is now 26 percent. A year ago it was only 18.9 percent.

#8 26.6 Percent: The unemployment rate in Spain has risen to an astounding 26.6 percent.

#9 27.0 Percent: The unemployment rate for workers under the age of 25 in Cyprus. Back in 2008, this number was well below 10 percent.

#10 28 Percent: Sales of French-made vehicles in November were down 28 percent compared to a year earlier.

#11 36 Percent: Today, the poverty rate in Greece is 36 percent. Back in 2009 it was only about 20 percent.

#12 37.1 Percent: The unemployment rate for workers under the age of 25 in Italy – a brand new all-time high.

#13 44 Percent: An astounding 44 percent of the entire population of Bulgaria is facing “severe material deprivation”.

#14 56.5 Percent: The unemployment rate for workers under the age of 25 in Spain – a brand new all-time high.

#15 57.6 Percent: The unemployment rate for workers under the age of 25 in Greece – a brand new all-time high.

#16 60 Percent: Citigroup is projecting that there is a 60 percent probability that Greece will leave the eurozone within the next 12 to 18 months.

#17 70 Percent: It has been reported that some homes in Spain are being sold at a 70% discount from where they were at during the peak of the housing bubble back in 2006. At this point there areapproximately 2 million unsold homes in Spain.

#18 200 Percent: The debt to GDP ratio in Greece is rapidly approaching 200 percent.

#19 1997: According to the Committee of French Automobile Producers, 2012 was the worst year for the French automobile industry since 1997.

#20 2 Million: Back in 2005, the French auto industry produced about 3.5 million vehicles. In 2012, that number dropped to about 2 million vehicles.
Note : that lists did not depend on relying on numbers like
- the numbers of quangoes in Ireland
- the number of ghost estates
- the property price drop
- the percentage of the Leaving cert class of 2007 who are currently in Western Australia.
- various measurements of the continuing crisis in Portugal
- the continuing debts in the UK as a result of Brown's expansion of the state system andrpivate sector contraction
- the scale of public debt in Belgium
- the French trade deficit.

Western Europe has been going downhill since the Treaty of Maastricht. More absurd bureacracy, more absurd imperial schemes, more "vision" statements.

I am waiting for the media to tell us that this was caused by the euro-sceptics.
 
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gerhard dengler

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Some months ago Draghi introduced his OMT program. A joint venture between the ESM and the ECB. Thing is, it has not been availed of to date by any country.

But take Spain for example, Barclays on four or five occasions between Sep and Dec 2012 said to expect a Spanish bailout in the very near term, it never materialised. This week, they changed their tune and say there is a 60% in the whole of 2013.
Widening their time frame while reducing the odds of it happening significantly.
Fabrizio Goria ‏@FGoriaBarclays

Today Goldman said to expect Spanish five year bonds to retract to 3% in the near term.

Today Spanish ten year hit a low of 4.84% (7% and above last summer)
http://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=spain ten yeaer bond&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CC0QFjAA&url=http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPG10YR:IND&ei=BE3wUNnoF9CXhQeRsoD4AQ&usg=AFQjCNEB0A_B4KzH14Wpy_M3lfUoP5tvuA&bvm=bv.1357700187,d.ZG4
Italy hit a low of 4.08% today. (7% last year)
http://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=italy ten yeaer bond&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CC0QFjAA&url=http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND&ei=PE3wUKSBGdS7hAe5qIHYDw&usg=AFQjCNFqBt-36YKWoogtoTvTSAdx1gTh-A

Some commentators on the Vincent show last year warned about France, Austria and Belgium.
All their ten year yields around 2% as of now.

Greece is still in the euro, no one has availed of OMT and IF Ireland gets a PN and legacy debt deal, we should return to the markets, so are we over the worst regarding the Sovereign part of the crisis?
Banks are getting money from the ECB and using this money to purchase government debt.

The ECB's balance sheet has doubled from €1.4 trillion to €3.1 trillion in the space of 4 years.

The evidence in the OP suggest that things have improved a little bit but as pointed out on VB's show the level of bad debt in the Italian and Spanish banks has still not been disclosed, never mind provided for.

Banks generally are still reluctant to lend to each other.
Banks are still generally reluctant to lend to ordinary savers.
 

Dublin 4

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How many times do Germany have to rule out Legacy Debt Deals?

 

Dublin 4

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Depends on what blows first- the cost of Greek write downs, the real mess of the Spanish Banks, the German hidden debt with its insolvent Banks.

France's record 3 Million unemployed won't help & then there's the aftermath of the Italian General Election to take effect.

Don't forget the German's & Spanish "have to agree conditions" for OMT to commence...

What do you think of Peter Matthews view that the Irish Banks will need another €60 Billion?
 

Fractional Reserve

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All most Eurozone governments are in dire straits , they are in debt up to their tits and rising .Unemployment is savage nearly 12% unemployment is very high for ages 20-50 a powerkeg for riots and social unrest, governments are chasing down anyone with a few euros , private debt is bad, europe will have the lowest growth globally .Dont believe the spin and drivel that is coming out of Dragster and his minions in the Eu parliment .
 

Dublin 4

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A lot of the electorates don't - hence the rise of left & right eurosceptic parties...
 

Crazy horse 6

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Depends on what blows first- the cost of Greek write downs, the real mess of the Spanish Banks, the German hidden debt with its insolvent Banks.

France's record 3 Million unemployed won't help & then there's the aftermath of the Italian General Election to take effect.

Don't forget the German's & Spanish "have to agree conditions" for OMT to commence...

What do you think of Peter Matthews view that the Irish Banks will need another €60 Billion?
I think he is telling porkies. The figure is closer to 100b at least.
 

Dublin 4

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Naughty CH6 very naughty :lol:
 

fuque

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gerhard dengler

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What is worrying is that with this level of intervention in the banking/lending sector that this would buy time for the real problems that exist to rectified.

We've had 4 years of direct sovereign intervention.
We've had 4 years of direct central bank intervention (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ)

I would argue that given this level of unprecedented intervention, the time that has been bought to rectify the problem appears to have failed,
 
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