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carlow election candidates


topcat

Member
Joined
Dec 30, 2008
Messages
95
anyone any predictions for the next GE and possible candidates?

will Mary White retain the seat
can Ann Phelan the south KK candidate take a seat?
Is it an own goal for Labour not to run a Carlow candidate?
Will we still vote for MJ, the minister for silence?
Will SF run a left candidate and do they have a chance?
What of the Rathvilly FG candidate?
 
R

RepublicanSocialist1798

anyone any predictions for the next GE and possible candidates?

will Mary White retain the seat
can Ann Phelan the south KK candidate take a seat?
Is it an own goal for Labour not to run a Carlow candidate?
Will we still vote for MJ, the minister for silence?
Will SF run a left candidate and do they have a chance?
What of the Rathvilly FG candidate?
I think we can rule out Mary White retaining her seat. Labour will certainly make a gain here. Running two candidates would be asking a lot given the results of the locals (18%). I'd also imagine there's a desire not have a repeat of 2007.
FF will lose a seat to FG. McGuinness is safe and it'll be either Aylward or Nolan. As far as I know SF are running town Cllr Kathleen Funchion from Kilkenny. Not in the running for a seat though it might help her get into the County Council in the 2014 locals.
 

Canon

Member
Joined
Aug 29, 2010
Messages
63
carlow kilkenny calling

I think we can rule out Mary White retaining her seat. Labour will certainly make a gain here. Running two candidates would be asking a lot given the results of the locals (18%). I'd also imagine there's a desire not have a repeat of 2007.
FF will lose a seat to FG. McGuinness is safe and it'll be either Aylward or Nolan. As far as I know SF are running town Cllr Kathleen Funchion from Kilkenny. Not in the running for a seat though it might help her get into the County Council in the 2014 locals.
 

Canon

Member
Joined
Aug 29, 2010
Messages
63
carlow kilkenny calling

I think we can rule out Mary White retaining her seat. Labour will certainly make a gain here. Running two candidates would be asking a lot given the results of the locals (18%). I'd also imagine there's a desire not have a repeat of 2007.
FF will lose a seat to FG. McGuinness is safe and it'll be either Aylward or Nolan. As far as I know SF are running town Cllr Kathleen Funchion from Kilkenny. Not in the running for a seat though it might help her get into the County Council in the 2014 locals.
+1petunia
 
R

RepublicanSocialist1798

+1petunia
Ok I actually hate when people use similes and don't write anything else.

Am I close to the money or am I off the mark? Though I'd say at this stage FF could lose another seat which will probably go to Labour.
 

pinemartin

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 7, 2006
Messages
6,731
Ok I actually hate when people use similes and don't write anything else.

Am I close to the money or am I off the mark? Though I'd say at this stage FF could lose another seat which will probably go to Labour.
White will lose her seat for sure, no doubt, she is only there on the strength of a FG mess up last time around. The FG will pick up a seat but who will it be, the pope or the Wicklow boy? Labour are for a gain so the FF will lose one.SF havnt a chance but will do her well for the locals, she is a nice girleen.
 

LgCastell

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 28, 2010
Messages
689
Has there been any more developments on selection here?

Lab are running Ann Phelan but are HQ considering Carlow Lab motion seeking a 2nd Carlow based candidate
FG are prob going with Phil and Sean Paul Phelan but werent they looking for a third in Carlow town any sign of this person?
 

MichaelMac

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 13, 2010
Messages
478
. As far as I know SF are running town Cllr Kathleen Funchion from Kilkenny. Not in the running for a seat though it might help her get into the County Council in the 2014 locals.

I thought John Cassin might have been given a go in the Carlow end of the constituency and Funchion the Kilkenny end.
 

Edo

Well-known member
Joined
May 12, 2007
Messages
3,052
Has there been any more developments on selection here?

Lab are running Ann Phelan but are HQ considering Carlow Lab motion seeking a 2nd Carlow based candidate
FG are prob going with Phil and Sean Paul Phelan but werent they looking for a third in Carlow town any sign of this person?
Lab are staying with just Anne Phelan as of this moment - there was talk of them looking for somebody in Carlow - but nothing has materialised in that regard - there was talk of yer man Doran from the INO - hes a kilkenny man - that motion was backed by Willie Quinn who lost the nomination to Anne Phelan - but they are only 7 miles away from each other in the wrong end of the county - I would say that Labour are sobering up after the Donegal result - personally I think Anne Phelan has got a big job on her hands to get elected - I expect Kathleen Function to run in KK and Cassin to run in Carlow for SF - wont get elected but could be serious nuisance value for labour.

Pat Deering is the FG Carlow candidate since June and has been out campaigning hard- he opened his office last week in Carlow town and his website will be live later this week.

Mary White will not go down easily - shes a tough campaigner and thats a serious note bene to Labour.

Rumour is that FF are having a convention in Carlow - MJ Nolan would appear to have the nomination sewn up and he is going to run - there have been mumurings that this is not going down well with FF councillors in Carlow and that Jennifer Murnane O'Connor is considering running on an Independent FF ticket - if that happens its curtains for Nolan.

At the moment Deering will be the most high profile non Government election candidate.

According to an FF internal poll for the constituency done in the early autumn- to be taken with a major pinch of salt now - it showed 2 FF 2 FG and 1 lab with no Carlow TD elected.

Food for thought all around - Carlow may have the greatest population in the county - buts its also a lowest voting area aswell - well down on the other districts.
 

cedarwood10

Active member
Joined
Jun 22, 2010
Messages
100
Mary White is indeed a tough campaigner (like Avril Doyle was) and successfully fought off an internal challenge from Malcolm Noonan of Kilkenny in 2005. But it is unlikely that she can turn the tide of rage that is engulfing her constituency.

When the sugar plant was closed in Carlow, there was a lot of talk and press releases about turning Carlow into an Energy Town, using the old premises for biofuel manufacturing etc.

If she managed to pull something off between now and January she might have a whisper of a chance. She had better get out her magic wand!
 

LgCastell

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 28, 2010
Messages
689
Could there be any change here if polls were replicated it seems John McG would be the only safe FFer and Nolan and Alyward would be battling to hold and will have to rely on transfers which wont be going around to much ...

With the way things are going and Labour still deciding to run one candidate could Deering (FG) be in with a shout ... i wouldnt be surprised if

Phil Hogan
John Mc

top the poll

JP Phelan
Ann Phelan

next two

but if MJ Nolan falls below Alyward again his transfers may go to Deering as a Carlow based man, as some might want to give MJ their number 1 (for some reason) but may refuse giving FF a transfer ...
 

LgCastell

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 28, 2010
Messages
689
if 2 seats aren't safe in laois/offaly the same could be said in CW/KK ... Deering could definitely make a break through in Carlow leaving FG with 3
 

Weesix

Active member
Joined
May 22, 2007
Messages
119
Just thought it worth pointing out sf are on 18% in Leinster and I think it fair to say that there arent many areas that will have considerably higher so she must have something close to this figure. in a five seater she only needs 16.67% to be absolutely certain and that is if every vote transfers which they wont. This is a five seater and my hunch is she will get elected and that Pearse Doherty is proving to be very successful already for sf and today he was on This Week and Nuacht Tg4 as well as Primetime and his post budget speech on rte player. He is easy to listen to and he knows his stuff which before people thought sinn fein didnt when it came to economics.

Funchion is university educated with a first class honours degree and should be able to build up what is a very weak sinn fein in that region. she probably would have made the county if she had stood in her native callan area but she was asked to concentrate on the city because of the huge number of votes it has for the dail elections. I dont think she gets so much media but sf tend to have too much adams even on their website.
 

topcat

Member
Joined
Dec 30, 2008
Messages
95
watch this space. there could be a surprise sf candidate in the cw/kk constituency
 

Magror14

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Joined
Jun 13, 2008
Messages
1,893
John McGuinness(FF)
Aylward(FF)
Phil Hogan(FG)
JP Phelan(FG)
Mary White(G)

I take Edo's point about Carlow town. I don't think Labour have enough of a profile and they will be affected by SF competition. My guess is that FG will mess up their discipline again and Mary White will do well on transfers. The two FF Boyos will stay in on the basis of their local machines.
 

vision

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 31, 2009
Messages
1,094
McGuinness will retain his seat because he is just about the only decent FF left. He is the only one who spoke out as a minister (and got demoted) and talks sense. He is both a businessman and a politician but he has never left or forgotten the people who elect him. If FF are slaughtered he is the only man who should lead FF and rebrand the party. I may not give him a No. 1 but he would certainly get a No. 2 at least.
 

flavirostris

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 21, 2007
Messages
25,031
McGuinness will retain his seat because he is just about the only decent FF left. He is the only one who spoke out as a minister (and got demoted) and talks sense. He is both a businessman and a politician but he has never left or forgotten the people who elect him. If FF are slaughtered he is the only man who should lead FF and rebrand the party. I may not give him a No. 1 but he would certainly get a No. 2 at least.
McGuinness only started belly-aching after losing his lucrative junior ministerial position but he seems to have everybody fooled into thinking he's the "conscience" of FF.

The "outsider" status should see him re-elected easily though
 

MichealMcGrath

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2010
Messages
1,101
Mary White is indeed a tough campaigner (like Avril Doyle was) and successfully fought off an internal challenge from Malcolm Noonan of Kilkenny in 2005. But it is unlikely that she can turn the tide of rage that is engulfing her constituency.

When the sugar plant was closed in Carlow, there was a lot of talk and press releases about turning Carlow into an Energy Town, using the old premises for biofuel manufacturing etc.

If she managed to pull something off between now and January she might have a whisper of a chance. She had better get out her magic wand!
I still believe that Mary White will make it , especially as Malcolm Noonan is backing her solidly this time round.
Why , she even manages to get transfers from John McGuinness FF who likes her! She gets transfers right across the board from everybody. So she'll beat the socks off Anne Phelan ( Labour) who is unknown in Kilkenny City.
It is an old adage that for Labour to win a seat here , they must run a candidate from Kilkenny City.
Instead they're still faced with the bitterness of the Pattison Split that's due to go beyond the grave, and is benefitting John McGuiness FF , who Seamus Pattison now favours.
Some Labour Party people had the bright idea last year of running Malcolm Noonan as the Labour Party candidate, he was game , but Labour Party HQ would not have it : their loss!
 

grassroots

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 7, 2007
Messages
2,424
Mary White is a gonner. Deering will take a seat for FG in Carlow, Nolan might just survive along with McGuinness. Phelan will win a seat for Labour and Hogan will win a seat for FG.
 
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