Cavan Monaghan: call the next GE

hollandia

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 11, 2012
Messages
30,149
Cavan Monaghan, under the new boundary changes is to be a five seater including all of both counties plus a sliver of east Meath.

Of the four current incumbents, SF's Caoimhin O'Caolain, is retiring, to be replaced with current MEP, and director of elections, Matt Carthy, and a running mate in former councillor, Pauline Tully.

Heather Humphreys will be leading the charge for FG, alongside senator Joe O'Reilly, with a possible third to be added to the ticket.

Flying the flag for Fianna Fail will be incumbents Niamh Smyth and Brendan Smyth.

Last time out in the four seater, this went to the wire with the two FF candidates being elected on the tenth count at the expense of SF's Kathryn Reilly and FG's Joe O'Reilly.

In terms of vote split last time, it was FG, 31%, Ff 28%, SF 27%, with FG losing out on a second seat due to poor vote management (largely due to Humphreys' high profile as a minister).

This looks to be tight this time again with a seat guaranteed for each party and a straight fight for the last two. I would expect FG to have addressed their vote management this time giving them one of the last two, leaving a straight fight between Tully of SF and one of the FF candidates.

Could well be a long count.
 


Cai

Well-known member
Joined
May 30, 2004
Messages
8,168
Cavan Monaghan, under the new boundary changes is to be a five seater including all of both counties plus a sliver of east Meath.

Of the four current incumbents, SF's Caoimhin O'Caolain, is retiring, to be replaced with current MEP, and director of elections, Matt Carthy, and a running mate in former councillor, Pauline Tully.

Heather Humphreys will be leading the charge for FG, alongside senator Joe O'Reilly, with a possible third to be added to the ticket.

Flying the flag for Fianna Fail will be incumbents Niamh Smyth and Brendan Smyth.

Last time out in the four seater, this went to the wire with the two FF candidates being elected on the tenth count at the expense of SF's Kathryn Reilly and FG's Joe O'Reilly.

In terms of vote split last time, it was FG, 31%, Ff 28%, SF 27%, with FG losing out on a second seat due to poor vote management (largely due to Humphreys' high profile as a minister).

This looks to be tight this time again with a seat guaranteed for each party and a straight fight for the last two. I would expect FG to have addressed their vote management this time giving them one of the last two, leaving a straight fight between Tully of SF and one of the FF candidates.

Could well be a long count.
Is the geographic candidate balance looking OK with FF & SF?
 

statsman

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
55,055
So, 2 FG, one FF, One SF, one in the air?
 

hollandia

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 11, 2012
Messages
30,149
Is the geographic candidate balance looking OK with FF & SF?
Well for SF, Carthy is monaghan (Carrickmacross, afaik), while Tully is Cavan.

Niamh Smyth is Cavan (Cootehill I think?) And Brendan Smith is Cavan.

Both got elected last time for Ff though, so not sure that geography is that important in this constituency for FF.
 

hollandia

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 11, 2012
Messages
30,149
So, 2 FG, one FF, One SF, one in the air?
That's my sense of it at the moment. Though Humphreys could do an O'Dea on her running mate again. This is a possible problem for SF too, as Carthy is very high profile whereas Tully wouldn't be that well known.
 

statsman

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
55,055
That's my sense of it at the moment. Though Humphreys could do an O'Dea on her running mate again. This is a possible problem for SF too, as Carthy is very high profile whereas Tully wouldn't be that well known.
Vote management is so important in our system. Difficult for a minister to do.
 

greagh

Well-known member
Joined
May 28, 2011
Messages
422
Robbie Gallagher has a high chance of getting a seat for FF in the Monaghan end of the constituency possibly at the expense of Niamh Smyth.
 

hollandia

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 11, 2012
Messages
30,149
Robbie Gallagher has a high chance of getting a seat for FF in the Monaghan end of the constituency possibly at the expense of Niamh Smyth.
As far as I know, only the two incumbents are on the ff ticket?
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
57,996
With 5 seats, a second FG seat is almost certain here. I call it: 2 FG, 2FF, 1 SF. However I think better vote management last time could have brought Kathryn Reilly (SF) over the line.

Remains to be seen whether the SF vote will hold up without O'Caolain.
 

hollandia

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 11, 2012
Messages
30,149
With 5 seats, a second FG seat is almost certain here.
It should have been a certainty last time. With better vote management all three big parties can vie for a second seat.
 

the secretary

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 29, 2013
Messages
6,347
With 5 seats, a second FG seat is almost certain here. I call it: 2 FG, 2FF, 1 SF. However I think better vote management last time could have brought Kathryn Reilly (SF) over the line.

Remains to be seen whether the SF vote will hold up without O'Caolain.
Should it not have been FG that were most likely to get that second seat last time?
 

hollandia

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 11, 2012
Messages
30,149
Should it not have been FG that were most likely to get that second seat last time?
Yes, but it was a four seater last time and the bulk of FG's vote went to Humphreys. I understand its difficult to manage the vote when one of your candidates is high profile.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
57,996
Should it not have been FG that were most likely to get that second seat last time?
I think if SF's vote had been better managed, a second SF seat would have been possible but difficult. O'Caolain's vote was around three quarters of the SF vote.
 

the secretary

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 29, 2013
Messages
6,347
I think if SF's vote had been better managed, a second SF seat would have been possible but difficult. O'Caolain's vote was around three quarters of the SF vote.
Did he get in on the first count? Did botj FG & SF outpoll FF?
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
57,996
Did he get in on the first count? Did botj FG & SF outpoll FF?
Caoimhin O'Caoiain was elected on Count 9 but the second SF candidate seemed to do not too bad with Independents transfers (maybe 10%) when they were eliminated. Kathryn Reilly didnt do as well as might have been expected from his transfers, gaining only 2500 approx after he was elected.
 


New Threads

Most Replies

Top