Cavan - Monaghan

davehiggz

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Series of threads on each constituency:


ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cavan Monaghan First Preference Votes

Currently: 3 FF (CC included) 1 FG and 1 SF.

Sinn Féin's seat is safe and so is Seymour Crawford.
Joe O'Reilly should bring in a second seat for FG.

That leaves 2 seats for FF, however polls suggest that they should only get 1 seat returned.

There's no real way of telling who'd take that seat.

Paudge Connolly was an independent for there (02-07) so if he runs he probably could take a 5th seat.

Labour don't seem to have any chance here and so FG may have a shot at 3 seats, however it'd be a huge shift to achieve.

I predict: 2 FG, 1 SF, 2 FF (or 1 FF and Ind/3rd FG)
 


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There is not a hope in hell of FG getting a 3rd seat here, they will definitely get a second seat no doubt about that. Labour and the Green's don't have a hope. Unless a strong Independent appears on the scene FF will take 2 seats. Sinn Féin will probably run Charlie Boylan alongside O'Caolain but will not take a second seat.

Most likely outcome - 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF
 

Dillon Country

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Series of threads on each constituency:


ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cavan Monaghan First Preference Votes

Currently: 3 FF (CC included) 1 FG and 1 SF.

Sinn Féin's seat is safe and so is Seymour Crawford.
Joe O'Reilly should bring in a second seat for FG.

That leaves 2 seats for FF, however polls suggest that they should only get 1 seat returned.

There's no real way of telling who'd take that seat.

Paudge Connolly was an independent for there (02-07) so if he runs he probably could take a 5th seat.

Labour don't seem to have any chance here and so FG may have a shot at 3 seats, however it'd be a huge shift to achieve.

I predict: 2 FG, 1 SF, 2 FF (or 1 FF and Ind/3rd FG)
Seems a reasonable assessment.

However, I think that FG may run their third candidate in Cavan- possibly Cllr Peter McVitty from Ballyconnell and together with Reillyin Bailieboro and Crawford in the Monaghan end, they could do it - but it would be a long shot.
 

Herodotus

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I think it will be 2 FG, 2 SF and 1 FF. The second SF seat is dubious though, they would be in a battle with FF and possibly a strong independent for the seat.
 
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I think it will be 2 FG, 2 SF and 1 FF. The second SF seat is dubious though, they would be in a battle with FF and possibly a strong independent for the seat.
Sinn Féin only got about 10% of the vote in Cavan and over 30% in Monaghan so it's very unlikely they'll take 2 seats with just about 20%.
 

Herodotus

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Sinn Féin only got about 10% of the vote in Cavan and over 30% in Monaghan so it's very unlikely they'll take 2 seats with just about 20%.
This constituency is probably the only in the country which is a real SF heartland. I think it is a possibility due to anti- FF satisfaction and FF people in the area preferring to give SF a vote over FG.
 

irish_bob

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This constituency is probably the only in the country which is a real SF heartland. I think it is a possibility due to anti- FF satisfaction and FF people in the area preferring to give SF a vote over FG.
thier are only two areas in the country which are a sinn fein heartland , all of monaghan and the town of dundalk in louth , cavan is not that strong shinner country , no more than parts of dublin

i see fianna fail possibly only coming back with one seat here , even minister smith could be in trouble such is the level of anger among farmers
 

pjoz

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Its an interesting constituency, O'Caolain as a lone SF candiate would top the poll,must be tempting to run a second.Crawford also a certainty.FF will have no where no the quota to get 2 elected given the current state of the country.Hard to even call who'd take the seat for FF, as one poster said "even minister smith could be in trouble such is the level of anger among farmers".O' Reilly should take a 2nd seat for FG and after that it gets interesting.FG may target a 3rd seat but hard to see them pulling it off, FF will hope to take it but it'd be a real dogfight, if connolly ran again itd be hard to see him taking it, so I think SF really have an almost risk free opportunity if they run a 2nd candiate.No one could seriously envisage them taking the seat but its definately a constituency that if there was a backlash against FF that they could make significant gains and cause a bit of a stir
 

LDF

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I think it's either a second seat for SF or a 3rd seat for FG.

SF could run a second Monaghan candidate (from the south of the county). They are overrun with councillors in that part of the conty, many are full time councillors who have been in place for some time. SF will need to demonstrate serious vote management to pull it off though.

FG will certainly take a second seat. A 3rd seat is a big ask but not impossible given the unpopularity of the current govt.

Margaret Connolly gained her seat after the swing back to FF at the tail-end of the last election. That swing is going the other way now and she will lose out. Smith could also struggle but would probably survive.

I don't think the next election will be a good one for independents standing on local issues. The electorate will be consumed with the national issues and will vote accordingly.
 

locke

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Sinn Fein have the votes to challenge for 2 seats, but it would require managing that vote successfully. To date, they don't have experience of that. That lack of experience has always been a problem for Labour when they've gone after 2 seats and I'd imagine SF would have the same issues.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Sinn Féin only got about 10% of the vote in Cavan and over 30% in Monaghan so it's very unlikely they'll take 2 seats with just about 20%.
Fianna Fail will only get 10% of the vote next time there is that leaves 30% up for grabs. The vast majority of people there hate the government as it is the worst affected by this depression.
 
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FG will be targetting a second seat in Cv-Mn, but this is not without caveats:

Crawford is 65. Little prospect of getting a big or even a small car at this stage of the game. A good TD, a good vote getter, even though FG locally cannot prevent him getting a useful slice of the Cavan vote due to the Protestant factor.

Joe Reilly has had 3 cracks at the Dail. At 54 he has not got the right profile for a first time TD representing a changing demographic that is Cv-Mn. However, he's probably as good a candidate as FG have in North Cavan.
FG to run Crawford, Reilly and a third. I like the look of David Blake in Kingscourt. Sean McKiernan should be considered, but did not exactly sweep the boards in the locals due to intense internal competition.

Sleeven will hold again, wont risk a running mate.

FF could line up, Smith, Conlon, and Niamh Smith in South Cavan, who would be a good sweeper to stem Brendan Smith's FPV and to allow Conlon to remain in touching distance of B Smith.

I'd call Cv-Mn 2 ff, 2fg, 1 sf next time.
 

LgCastell

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I dont think Crawfords retirement will change things too much here

FG will be looking to Sen O reilly to be there front runnerand he should get in easy enough
O' reilly is a Cavan County based candidate while FG will now be looking for a decent Monaghan candidate and possibly a 3rd sweeper but in reality there are unlikely to get three here

going on Le results in Monaghan theres a number of candidates but I will admit I have no local knowledge of the Cllrs in this area so some local analysis would be useful

Owen Bannigan garnered 1543 votes in Castleblayney
Heather Humphries 1554 in Clones (Crawford orginal local base)

these seem to be the front runners with many tipping the latter to get the nod as for a 3rd i'm unsure where FG will place this person

FF I reckon O Hanlon will retire and FF will run teo candidate with Conlon and Smith running and Smith should get in again

SF will prob seek to run two in this constituency Monaghan returned a number of SF cllrs - 7 in total while cavan does not mirror this Charlie Boylan of Cavan would seem to be a front runner to get the nod going on Le results and would hope to do well of Caoimhin's transfers...

Lab would seem to have to go with Cullen who even if the Gilmore Gale was hurricane strenght would seem to struggle to get over the line

any indos i'm not sure of

I'd have to say

O' Reilly, Caoimhin and Smith to take first three seats
next two most likely FG #2 and SF# 2 with Conlon to lose out
 

Blissett

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Sf have a good candidate lined up afaik, cavan candidate not involved in electoral politics currently, but I think will go down well. 2 seats for SF in cavan monaghan is a decent bet/
 

undecided1

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Nov 29, 2010
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all changed here since crawfords retirement, ff vote will be well down but will have near 2 quotas(,as they fairly easily took 2 out of 4seats) second sinn fein candidate in cavan will only take votes from o caolaoin, o,reilly a cert in cavan for f.g. cant see past 2 f.g. 2 f.f. 1 s.f.
 

hugh o'neill

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I think it will be 1 SF, 2 FG and 1FF the last seat will be either FF or independent. Hope to God that O'Hanlon retires and Smyth is kicked out. Smyth has got to be one of the worse ever ministers from cavan.
 

Observer

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This week's Celt says the potential Cavan SF candidate will be either Pauline Tully-McCauley (from Kilnaleck, councillor since 1999) or Kathryn Reilly (assistant to Arthur Morgan), with the implication that Reilly will get the nod.
 

MichaelMac

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More than enough votes in Monaghan alone to get one SF TD. Added to that is about 4/5 thousand in Cavan. with the FF meltdown a lot of votes will move across to SF. 2FG 2SF and 1FF looks the call.
 


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