China cut off petroleum products exports to North Korea. Consequences?

Patslatt1

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According to customs data, China has cut off petroleum products exports to North Korea apparently in response to NK's testing of ICBMs in violation of UN resolutions. Since NK has no oil refineries, it is very vulnerable to such a cutoff from China which supplies most of NK's needs. Following on a ban on NK's exports of coal and minerals to China, the cutoff may be a major escalation of economic pressure. There is a chance that such a major blow to the NK economy from its nominal ally China could help remove the present leader KIm and his leadership faction, replacing it with a government willing to emerge from cultish isolation.

However, since China was recklessly indulgent in allowing exports of dual use technologies that considerably helped NK in its nuclear weapons development programme,some proof is needed that China has had a change of heart. US satellites should be able to track for reduced activity in tanker shipments between China and NK, in NK's road traffic and power generation in oil and gas plants.

Maybe China recognises the serious risk that the US without the permission of South Korea may unilaterally attack NK with tactical nuclear weapons to destroy its ICBM and nuclear weapons facilities and possibly the vast network of bunkers near the DMZ.

PS Dec 28 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-ships-spotted-satellites-apos-152120947.html Satellites spot Chinese oil sanctions busting at sea. This increases the probability of a US attack on NK.
 
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mr_anderson

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China & the USA need to agree that, when NK falls and there is reunification, the USA leaves SK.

It's the only thing giving China reason to support NK.

Take away that impediment and China will be on the same page as SK & the USA.

It then comes down to managing the collapse of the regime and to make sure no bombs get thrown.
 

Catalpast

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According to customs data, China has cut off petroleum products exports to North Korea apparently in response to NK's testing of ICBMs in violation of UN resolutions. Since NK has no oil refineries, it is very vulnerable to such a cutoff from China which supplies most of NK's needs. Following on a ban on NK's exports of coal and minerals to China, the cutoff may be a major escalation of economic pressure. There is a chance that such a major blow to the NK economy from its nominal ally China could help remove the present leader KIm and his leadership faction, replacing it with a government willing to emerge from cultish isolation.

However, since China was recklessly indulgent in allowing exports of dual use technologies that considerably helped NK in its nuclear weapons development programme,some proof is needed that China has had a change of heart. US satellites should be able to track for reduced activity in tanker shipments between China and NK, in NK's road traffic and power generation in oil and gas plants.

Maybe China recognises the serious risk that the US without the permission of South Korea may unilaterally attack NK with tactical nuclear weapons to destroy its ICBM and nuclear weapons facilities and possibly the vast network of bunkers near the DMZ.
Link please....
 

stopdoingstuff

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I would add a note of caution. If this is based in Chinese data, then we simply do not know if exports have or have not been cut off.
 

gleeful

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I suspect a war has been pencilled in for immediately after the Winter Olympics.
 

Jim Car

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China & the USA need to agree that, when NK falls and there is reunification, the USA leaves SK.

It's the only thing giving China reason to support NK.

Take away that impediment and China will be on the same page as SK & the USA.

It then comes down to managing the collapse of the regime and to make sure no bombs get thrown.
NK gone falls there is no need for the US. Even if NK does not fall I believe there are still plans for the US to pull out its ground forces over the next decade on. SK is more then capable of dealing with nearly all conventional and many unconventional threats that NK poses to it anyway.
 

gleeful

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That is highly unlikely

- what could he hope to gain?
NK will have usable ICBMs able to reach the US mainland within 6 months. If the US doesnt act now, by year end they will lose their power to bully the Koreans.

Ultimately the US will not risk losing a single city to a conflict with North Korea.
 

Black Swan

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I suspect a war has been pencilled in for immediately after the Winter Olympics.
The situation is looking more dangerous by the day. I don't think China will get involved in a military conflict on behalf of DPRK at this stage. Their main concern will be avoiding nuclear war and managing the millions of refugees on their border. I just wonder what plans the US/ROK have in place to weather the initial storm. Tens of thousands of them will probably die, mostly civilians.
 
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mr_anderson

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The situation is looking more dangerous by the day. I don't think China will get involved in a military conflict on behalf of DPRK at this stage. Their main concern will be avoiding nuclear war and managing the millions of refugees on their border. I just wonder what plans the US/ROK have in place to weather the initial storm. Tens of thousands of them will probably die, mostly civilians.

It could be a case of just offering Kim & Co billions to defect.
 

Black Swan

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It could be a case of just offering Kim & Co billions to defect.
Kim & Co have painted themselves into a corner. It's alarmingly close to ************************ or get off the pot now.
 

Catalpast

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NK will have usable ICBMs able to reach the US mainland within 6 months. If the US doesnt act now, by year end they will lose their power to bully the Koreans.

Ultimately the US will not risk losing a single city to a conflict with North Korea.
But they are not 'bullying' the Koreans

- most Koreans live in South Korea which is a long time US Ally

North Korea is a dictatorship that regularly threatens the South, Japan and the USA

Now they have Nukes

As they were never threatened by these Powers anyway then what use are these WOMD to them anyway

- unless to threaten their neighbours...
 

Catalpast

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But they are not 'bullying' the Koreans

- most Koreans live in South Korea which is a long time US Ally

North Korea is a dictatorship that regularly threatens the South, Japan and the USA

Now they have Nukes

As they were never threatened by these Powers anyway then what use are these WOMD to them anyway

- unless to threaten their neighbours...
The ball is in Mr Kim's Court at the moment

- President Trump only reminds him what the consequences of his actions could lead to

The US does not want or need a War in Korea

- but they will not back off from a fight either

- definitely not while Donald J Trump is POTUS:cool:
 

Patslatt1

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NK gone falls there is no need for the US. Even if NK does not fall I believe there are still plans for the US to pull out its ground forces over the next decade on. SK is more then capable of dealing with nearly all conventional and many unconventional threats that NK poses to it anyway.
SK could use telepathy to persuade Kim not to nuke it!
 

Patslatt1

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NK will have usable ICBMs able to reach the US mainland within 6 months. If the US doesnt act now, by year end they will lose their power to bully the Koreans.

Ultimately the US will not risk losing a single city to a conflict with North Korea.
The latter is a logical argument for the US to launch a tacticl nuclear weapons attack before NK gets that ICBM capability but that would entail small risk of a war with China if the attack isn't over in say 10 to 20 minutes in a quick blitz, giving China no time to respond.
 
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