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China nightmare: its cheap labour resource is drying up


GDPR

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IMF sees 140m jobs shortage in ageing China as 'Lewis Point' hits - Telegraph

China will run out of cheap labour in around seven years and will have a shortage of labour of 140 million people. This is an incredible labour collapse. One solution suggested at Davos by a Chinese demographer was to

resort to mass suicide in the end, shoving pensioners onto the ice
"Shoving" sounds more like murder than suicide.

Here's a link to the IMF report (downloadable pdf) upon which the Telegraph report is based:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1326.pdf

Some US manufacturers, including Apple (some parts), Ford, Caterpillar and General Electric are already starting to bring their factories back home. I think this is a good move even though we consumers may end up paying higher prices. In the meantime China is trying to steal as many trade secrets as it can. It does not yet realise that theft brings bad karma.

The Telegraph article concludes:
My guess is that there is one last cycle of Chinese fever to enjoy -- if that is right word -- before the aging crunch and the credit hangover combine with toxic effect. One thing is for sure: a middle-income country with a shrinking work force is not about to displace the United States as global hegemon.
There may be an opportunity here for Ireland. A much smaller economy and population could pick up bits...

What do you think are the implications for Ireland and the world economy?
 

Burnout

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Joined
Oct 7, 2009
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I have a life.
We should go back and make things, simple things that we need as we used to, shoes, textiles, furniture etc. Make something.
 

GDPR

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We should go back and make things, simple things that we need as we used to, shoes, textiles, furniture etc. Make something.
I agree: nearly all our needs could be met by local production, everywhere. When Iceland was forced to go back to its own resources, it did fine. In a sense all this multi-national supply is a bit of a mirage and does not always benefit the consumer. It blinds us to what we can do ourselves.

We still need some multi-national things, Apple stuff for instance. That's a personal bias, but even Windows people know what I mean. But with the development of 3D printing (still in very early stages) we may be able to become self-sufficient in high tech stuff too.
 

FrankSpeaks

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This good news for China, good news for the developing world and in the long term good for the world economy.

It means slower growth for China, but also marks its proximity to the developed west.
I agree it's good news for us, we need to start making things again and get over our need for the shoddy cheap goods emanating from China.
 

Nemesiscorporation

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Joined
Oct 2, 2011
Messages
14,214
IMF sees 140m jobs shortage in ageing China as 'Lewis Point' hits - Telegraph

China will run out of cheap labour in around seven years and will have a shortage of labour of 140 million people. This is an incredible labour collapse. One solution suggested at Davos by a Chinese demographer was to

"Shoving" sounds more like murder than suicide.

Here's a link to the IMF report (downloadable pdf) upon which the Telegraph report is based:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1326.pdf

Some US manufacturers, including Apple (some parts), Ford, Caterpillar and General Electric are already starting to bring their factories back home. I think this is a good move even though we consumers may end up paying higher prices. In the meantime China is trying to steal as many trade secrets as it can. It does not yet realise that theft brings bad karma.

The Telegraph article concludes:


There may be an opportunity here for Ireland. A much smaller economy and population could pick up bits...

What do you think are the implications for Ireland and the world economy?
China has lifted over 300 million people out of poverty. That development has been mostly in the East and South East of the country. Development is lowly moving west in China and it will take at least 20 years for China to run out of that cheap labour.
 

ManUnited

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Nov 16, 2009
Messages
5,221
IMF sees 140m jobs shortage in ageing China as 'Lewis Point' hits - Telegraph

China will run out of cheap labour in around seven years and will have a shortage of labour of 140 million people. This is an incredible labour collapse. One solution suggested at Davos by a Chinese demographer was to

"Shoving" sounds more like murder than suicide.

Here's a link to the IMF report (downloadable pdf) upon which the Telegraph report is based:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1326.pdf

Some US manufacturers, including Apple (some parts), Ford, Caterpillar and General Electric are already starting to bring their factories back home. I think this is a good move even though we consumers may end up paying higher prices. In the meantime China is trying to steal as many trade secrets as it can. It does not yet realise that theft brings bad karma.

The Telegraph article concludes:


There may be an opportunity here for Ireland. A much smaller economy and population could pick up bits...

What do you think are the implications for Ireland and the world economy?
China is about to displace the USA as global hegemon.
 

Nemesiscorporation

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Oct 2, 2011
Messages
14,214
China is about to displace the USA as global hegemon.
That process started over a decade ago and has been accelerating since.

China now makes its cheapest goods in Ethiopia and other parts of Africa. They are even in negotiations with Somaliland in Northern Somalia which is stable unlike the south of the country for off shoring.

Also manufacturing is coming back because some are realising that neoliberal dogma is just dogma with no foundation.
 

GDPR

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Messages
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China has lifted over 300 million people out of poverty. That development has been mostly in the East and South East of the country. Development is lowly moving west in China and it will take at least 20 years for China to run out of that cheap labour.
So you disagree with the IMF's conclusions that it will run out just after 2020?
 

GDPR

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Messages
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That process started over a decade ago and has been accelerating since.

China now makes its cheapest goods in Ethiopia and other parts of Africa. They are even in negotiations with Somaliland in Northern Somalia which is stable unlike the south of the country for off shoring.

Also manufacturing is coming back because some are realising that neoliberal dogma is just dogma with no foundation.
That is good if China is improving the local economy in African countries. I heard it wasn't. Do you have further information?
 

Mossy Heneberry

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Jun 10, 2009
Messages
3,841
So you disagree with the IMF's conclusions that it will run out just after 2020?
It will run out of CHEAP labour but not labour itself.

Also, keep in mind technological advances that will replace labour.
 

Toland

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Website
www.aggressive-secularist.com
That is good if China is improving the local economy in African countries. I heard it wasn't. Do you have further information?
Whether China is achieving the effect directly, there is little doubt that Africa is at last beginning to move out of its historical economic misery.
 

GDPR

1
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Messages
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It will run out of CHEAP labour but not labour itself.

Also, keep in mind technological advances that will replace labour.
I already have them in mind. In an earlier thread I reported on the robots making Philips electric shavers. All in Europe, mind, not in China.
 

Mad as Fish

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Joined
Dec 6, 2012
Messages
24,449
So you disagree with the IMF's conclusions that it will run out just after 2020?
IMF's conclusions are to a large part as much an estimate as anyone else's. I'm not saying they are wrong, no doubt it is a well meaning and intelligent assessment on their part, however, it is only an indication rather than a definitive forecast.
 

Mad as Fish

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Dec 6, 2012
Messages
24,449
Whether China is achieving the effect directly, there is little doubt that Africa is at last beginning to move out of its historical economic misery.
Whilst Ireland returns to it historical misery. :cry:
 

lies

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Joined
Feb 17, 2009
Messages
2,918
Twitter
yes
IMF sees 140m jobs shortage in ageing China as 'Lewis Point' hits - Telegraph

China will run out of cheap labour in around seven years and will have a shortage of labour of 140 million people. This is an incredible labour collapse. One solution suggested at Davos by a Chinese demographer was to

"Shoving" sounds more like murder than suicide.

Here's a link to the IMF report (downloadable pdf) upon which the Telegraph report is based:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1326.pdf

Some US manufacturers, including Apple (some parts), Ford, Caterpillar and General Electric are already starting to bring their factories back home. I think this is a good move even though we consumers may end up paying higher prices. In the meantime China is trying to steal as many trade secrets as it can. It does not yet realise that theft brings bad karma.

The Telegraph article concludes:


There may be an opportunity here for Ireland. A much smaller economy and population could pick up bits...

What do you think are the implications for Ireland and the world economy?
On the other hand, China is building entire cities in Africa, for African workers.

Many think China may be trying to make their own China.
 
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