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China now largest trading nation in the world


seabhcan

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Sep 3, 2007
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China trade now bigger than US - Telegraph

China is now the largest trading nation on earth, overtaking the US in 2012. China's combines imports and exports total $3.87 trillion, marginally more than the US figure of $3.82 trillion.

This is an interesting moment. The US has held the number 1 spot since at least WW2, probably before.

Also, interestingly, "China had a full-year trade surplus of $231.1bn with the US posting a total 2012 trade deficit of $727.9bn." Basically, the US imports 25% more than they export. 727 billion gets sucked out of the country each and every year - 7% of GDP.

China's internal market is still a lot smaller than the US, but it is growing at a fair clip. "China's auto sales jumped 46.4pc compared with January 2012 to a record monthly high of 2.03m units"

This data basically ends the worry that China is slowing down. For better or worse, the Chinese government does seem to have printed and inflated itself out of trouble.

This news will put pressure on the Dollar and will push gradually global trade away from being so dollar dominated. A nation which has a declining share of trade, has 25% trade deficit can't continue forever to set the rules.
 


R

Ramps

China trade now bigger than US - Telegraph

China is now the largest trading nation on earth, overtaking the US in 2012. China's combines imports and exports total $3.87 trillion, marginally more than the US figure of $3.82 trillion.

This is an interesting moment. The US has held the number 1 spot since at least WW2, probably before.

Also, interestingly, "China had a full-year trade surplus of $231.1bn with the US posting a total 2012 trade deficit of $727.9bn." Basically, the US imports 25% more than they export. 727 billion gets sucked out of the country each and every year - 7% of GDP.

China's internal market is still a lot smaller than the US, but it is growing at a fair clip. "China's auto sales jumped 46.4pc compared with January 2012 to a record monthly high of 2.03m units"

This data basically ends the worry that China is slowing down. For better or worse, the Chinese government does seem to have printed and inflated itself out of trouble.

This news will put pressure on the Dollar and will push gradually global trade away from being so dollar dominated. A nation which has a declining share of trade, has 25% trade deficit can't continue forever to set the rules.
You seem to be under the impression that a trade deficit is a bad thing....
 
M

MrFunkyBoogaloo

China trade now bigger than US - Telegraph

China is now the largest trading nation on earth, overtaking the US in 2012. China's combines imports and exports total $3.87 trillion, marginally more than the US figure of $3.82 trillion.

This is an interesting moment. The US has held the number 1 spot since at least WW2, probably before.

Also, interestingly, "China had a full-year trade surplus of $231.1bn with the US posting a total 2012 trade deficit of $727.9bn." Basically, the US imports 25% more than they export. 727 billion gets sucked out of the country each and every year - 7% of GDP.

China's internal market is still a lot smaller than the US, but it is growing at a fair clip. "China's auto sales jumped 46.4pc compared with January 2012 to a record monthly high of 2.03m units"

This data basically ends the worry that China is slowing down. For better or worse, the Chinese government does seem to have printed and inflated itself out of trouble.

This news will put pressure on the Dollar and will push gradually global trade away from being so dollar dominated. A nation which has a declining share of trade, has 25% trade deficit can't continue forever to set the rules.
Was reading this the other night and yes.. before anyone starts... I know it's ZeroHero - Get over it!

"China Accounts For Nearly Half Of World's New Money Supply" | Zero Hedge

Also this from today: Guest Post: China Surpasses U.S. As Number One Global Trading Power | Zero Hedge
 

stopdoingstuff

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Isn't it?
Not really. It means that poor consumers can buy stuff for cheaper, and all those dollars must eventually make their way back to the USA at some point because they are only useful if they can be traded for something priced in dollars (consumer goods or capital investments). In a sense, this represents a wealth transfer from poor Chinese workers to relatively richer American consumers, since it is the policy of the Chinese government to keep their exports cheap. The real problem is not the deficit itself but that the US economy is not really competitive.
 

stopdoingstuff

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Feb 26, 2011
Messages
22,892
Was reading this the other night and yes.. before anyone starts... I know it's ZeroHero - Get over it!

"China Accounts For Nearly Half Of World's New Money Supply" | Zero Hedge

Also this from today: Guest Post: China Surpasses U.S. As Number One Global Trading Power | Zero Hedge
Zero Hedge is a fine website as long as it is treated for what it is- part news, part analysis, part speculation. The last part is what both gives it its edge and its weakness- people outline speculative investment hypotheses, which others then hold up to standards of evidence that one should only properly apply to hard news. The we get comments like," that guy said Stock X would soar but it didn't, so if we's have listened to him we would be down 30%". Except of course that only an idiot would be down 30%, because only an idiot would trade without a stop loss to begin with, because most traders are wrong most of the time but seek to limit that by cutting losses early but letting profits run.

As for Chinese money supply doubling- yes, it will lead to disaster.
 

stopdoingstuff

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Joined
Feb 26, 2011
Messages
22,892
China trade now bigger than US - Telegraph

China is now the largest trading nation on earth, overtaking the US in 2012. China's combines imports and exports total $3.87 trillion, marginally more than the US figure of $3.82 trillion.

This is an interesting moment. The US has held the number 1 spot since at least WW2, probably before.

Also, interestingly, "China had a full-year trade surplus of $231.1bn with the US posting a total 2012 trade deficit of $727.9bn." Basically, the US imports 25% more than they export. 727 billion gets sucked out of the country each and every year - 7% of GDP.

China's internal market is still a lot smaller than the US, but it is growing at a fair clip. "China's auto sales jumped 46.4pc compared with January 2012 to a record monthly high of 2.03m units"

This data basically ends the worry that China is slowing down. For better or worse, the Chinese government does seem to have printed and inflated itself out of trouble.

This news will put pressure on the Dollar and will push gradually global trade away from being so dollar dominated. A nation which has a declining share of trade, has 25% trade deficit can't continue forever to set the rules.
The net result of this is that whereas the US was once pretty much everyone else's trading partner, now China is. This means that like it or not, China will set the rules, maybe not right now but eventually. What constrains them now is that they need everyone else's markets to remain open to avoid an export downturn and social unrest and that their limited military power and energy resources means that they can be choked off quite easily. Both both of those situations are temporary, and very temporary in the case of the military question.

They are getting very aggressive in that regard and they seem to regard America's Pacific pivot as some sort of bluff- right now whether they call that bluff or not depends on how big a bluff they think it is, but it ultimately will not matter, because the day is not too far off when they will either rule the Pacific or make it prohibitively expensive for anyone to seriously interfere. Whenever you hear anyone talking about Europe stepping up its military role or anyone trying to persuade us to join some sort of alliance, China forms a key part of the reasoning- we "need" to do more so that the USA can concentrate its resources on "containing" China.
 

Mossy Heneberry

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BookFace

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Not really. It means that poor consumers can buy stuff for cheaper, and all those dollars must eventually make their way back to the USA at some point because they are only useful if they can be traded for something priced in dollars (consumer goods or capital investments). In a sense, this represents a wealth transfer from poor Chinese workers to relatively richer American consumers, since it is the policy of the Chinese government to keep their exports cheap. The real problem is not the deficit itself but that the US economy is not really competitive.
how do you know all this stuff(ive read the other replies you left here) but how do you know this stuff? are you studying economics? genuinely want to know. cheers
 

Mossy Heneberry

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how do you know all this stuff(ive read the other replies you left here) but how do you know this stuff? are you studying economics? genuinely want to know. cheers
See my post above (Nbr 8) and download the document. It's only about 15 pages long, excluding references.
 

ManUnited

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Little off-topic but I was reading some stuff on China recently written by Chinese academics. One fella was describing how China had gone through what he calls Chinese socialism 1.0 and Chinese socialism 2.0, and was now embarking on Chinese socialism 3.0.

I think the man is the new master of understatement:

Of course, Chinese socialism 2.0 also had its drawbacks. In order to pursue
the highest possible rate of economic growth at this stage of its development,
China to a large extent ignored social justice, workers’ rights, public health,
medical care, the environment, national defence, and so on. This caused
serious consequences as well as a widespread sentiment of insecurity,
inequality, and discomfort among the population.

I particularly liked the 'and so on' after that list, not to mention the fact that it caused a sense of 'discomfort among the population.
 

Analyzer

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Only one thing can stop China now....

If they hire somebody to give speeches on how they should run their economy.....

 

stopdoingstuff

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how do you know all this stuff(ive read the other replies you left here) but how do you know this stuff? are you studying economics? genuinely want to know. cheers
I wouldn't say I know that much and there are loads who would disagree with my analysis- take a look at some other posts on economic issues and you will see me having hilarious arguments with some other posters. I have no formal qualifications in economics. But I did read a lot about economics, especially liberal economics. Also I work in the financial sector, so I have to read up on economic and financial matters a bit more than I would otherwise have to.
 

BookFace

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I wouldn't say I know that much and there are loads who would disagree with my analysis- take a look at some other posts on economic issues and you will see me having hilarious arguments with some other posters. I have no formal qualifications in economics. But I did read a lot about economics, especially liberal economics. Also I work in the financial sector, so I have to read up on economic and financial matters a bit more than I would otherwise have to.
thanks for the reply. im new here as a poster so a good look around economics is a must. again thanks
 

seabhcan

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Mossy Heneberry

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US trade deficits don't matter much so long as world trade is done in dollars. If that changes, it does certainly start to matter. Deficits matter any country that has to trade in someone elses currency.
You obviously didn't read the document I posted.
 

tipp revolution

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China is the worlds largest trading nation - dah, as in , isnt that obvious?
They probably hold most of the worlds debt as well
But who has the money to buy their exports?


PS how is the German economy doing - I dont see many 131 vws and vorsprungs around Rathcabbin.
 

seabhcan

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You obviously didn't read the document I posted.
I read it. Its nearly 20 years old and quite simplistic.

Imagine one of the scenarios depicted but change currencies. One point made is that dollars earned by Japanese companies must return to the US at some point. Now imagine that the dollar is no longer used for international trade - say the Renminbi is instead. So to import goods from Japan, the US company must purchase Renminbi to make the trade. Any deficit in trade is in Renminbi, which the US cannot print to cover the gap.

Now, as deficits continue year on year, Renminbi in the US becomes more difficult to obtain. It must be borrowed, and repaied in Renminbi at some future point. Any Renminbi lost to a deficit does not necessarily return to the US. A deficit, when forced to trade in someone elses currency, is a serious issue. Ultimately, Renminbi becomes more valuable relative to the local currency (dollar) and imports fall.
 

stopdoingstuff

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Reserve currencies often lead to deficits though. If people want to hold your currency, they have to give you something in return.
 

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