- May 25, 2009
The tensions in the region will be ratcheted up another notch after a wikileaks cable apparently revealed that China is ready to cast Kim's régime loose. It's certainly an interesting story, but it needs to be taken with some caution- after all, this seems to be a leak from a South Korean source and as such is not from a disinterested party. If true though it's a game changer. As all of this was known beforehand by the US, it's not surprising that they don't seem overly worried about the rise in tensions that will result from their latest military exercises in the Yellow Sea and that South Korea has been far more bellicose in its rhetoric towards the North recently than on previous occasions following clashes and provocations. I think we're witnessing the start of a concerted turning of the screws on the DPRK with the aim of bringing about its political disintegration and final collapse and integration into the ROK.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010...eunified-koreaChun, who has since been appointed national security adviser to South Korea's president, said North Korea had already collapsed economically.
Political collapse would ensue once Kim Jong-il died, despite the dictator's efforts to obtain Chinese help and to secure the succession for his son, Kim Jong-un.
"Citing private conversations during previous sessions of the six-party talks , Chun claimed [the two high-level officials] believed Korea should be unified under ROK [South Korea] control," Stephens reported.
"The two officials, Chun said, were ready to 'face the new reality' that the DPRK [North Korea] now had little value to China as a buffer state a view that, since North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006, had reportedly gained traction among senior PRC [People's Republic of China] leaders. Chun argued that in the event of a North Korean collapse, China would clearly 'not welcome' any US military presence north of the DMZ [demilitarised zone]. Again citing his conversations with [the officials], Chun said the PRC would be comfortable with a reunified Korea controlled by Seoul and anchored to the US in a 'benign alliance' as long as Korea was not hostile towards China. Tremendous trade and labour-export opportunities for Chinese companies, Chun said, would also help 'salve' PRC concerns about a reunified Korea.
"Chun dismissed the prospect of a possible PRC military intervention in the event of a DPRK collapse, noting that China's strategic economic interests now lie with the United States, Japan and South Korea not North Korea."