Clare: call the next GE results

statsman

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A thread for serious discussion/predictions by people with local knowledge. There are the first pref results last time out. The idea is outlined on the main thread here:

Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind

  • Dooley, Timmy elected 17.92% FF
  • Harty, Michael elected 15.14% Indo
  • Breen, Pat elected 11.55% FG
  • Carey, Joe elected 10.65% FG
  • McDonagh, Michael not-elected 8.29% FF
  • McNamara, Michael eliminated 7.85% Lab
  • Moran, Noeleen eliminated 7.40% SF
  • Colleran Molloy, Clare eliminated 4.63% FF
  • Norton, Ann eliminated 3.93% Indo
  • Howard, Mary eliminated 3.60% FG
  • Smith, Fergal eliminated 2.98% Green
  • Lynch, Ian eliminated 2.62% Indo
  • O'Brien, Niamh eliminated 2.02% FIS
  • Cahill, Richard eliminated 1.23% Indo
  • Sibo Hakizimana, Andre eliminated 0.12% Indo
  • Mulqueen, Dermot eliminated 0.07% Indo

Will the move of Shannon Banks from Limerick to Clare boost the Left?

[Edit] Cathal Crowe (FF) is also running this time out.
 
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lastofthebohemians

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Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
Certainly, an influx of a more likely progressive electorate with the Shannon Banks addition. Who will this benefit most though?
 

statsman

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Certainly, an influx of a more likely progressive electorate with the Shannon Banks addition. Who will this benefit most though?
SF and/or the alphabets.

[Edit] as the alphabets may not run anyone, then you have to think that Moran will get a boost, assuming she's running. I reckon a 1000 extra first prefs for her might just make it interesting.
 
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statsman

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Possibily.But will it be enough to disturb the status quo? Dooley and Harty 100% shoe-ins.
See my edit above. It could make FG a bit nervous about the second seat. Probably not enough to take it, but still...
 

iomanaiocht

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Certainly, an influx of a more likely progressive electorate with the Shannon Banks addition. Who will this benefit most though?
Cathal Crowe FF of nearby Meelick and teaching in Parteen will be the main beneficiary. FF's addition of Crowe to their line up will help them get the elusive second seat easily.
 

Clanrickard

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Dolittle will get it as there are enough bovine FFers here in the Banner. Expect him to top the poll. Carey is what is euphemistically called "a hard constituency worker" i.e. a parish pumper to his finger tips. He is also one of the slowest most inarticulate politicians on this island. Sadly he will probably get back in. Pat Breen has been useless as usual and will come under pressure in his bailiwick in West Clare from Rita Mcinerney. Maybe not enough to lose his seat sadly. No fan of FF but she at least she can talk sense. I wouldn't put my house on it but it is a possibility. Dr. Harty has been low profile and I am not sure he will get back in. He was elected on the basis if dissatisfaction with the health service and that dissatisfaction is still there and it is also clear that independents can do heehaw about it. Not sure if McNamara will run again. If he does he won't get in. At this stage I'd call it Doolittle, Carey, Breen Crowe/Moran (Crowe slightly ahead)
 

statsman

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Dolittle will get it as there are enough bovine FFers here in the Banner. Expect him to top the poll. Carey is what is euphemistically called "a hard constituency worker" i.e. a parish pumper to his finger tips. He is also one of the slowest most inarticulate politicians on this island. Sadly he will probably get back in. Pat Breen has been useless as usual and will come under pressure in his bailiwick in West Clare from Rita Mcinerney. Maybe not enough to lose his seat sadly. No fan of FF but she at least she can talk sense. I wouldn't put my house on it but it is a possibility. Dr. Harty has been low profile and I am not sure he will get back in. He was elected on the basis if dissatisfaction with the health service and that dissatisfaction is still there and it is also clear that independents can do heehaw about it. Not sure if McNamara will run again. If he does he won't get in. At this stage I'd call it Doolittle, Carey, Breen Crowe/Moran (Crowe slightly ahead)
2 FF ad 2 FG then? With an outside chance of 2 FG, 1 FF and 1 SF?
 

statsman

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Yes pretty much at this stage what I would be saying. Obviously someone might come out of left field like Harty in the last GE before the actual ballot.
True. It tends to be a long list of candidates, but in general I'd agree with you as of now. If Crowe picks up the Shannon Banks vote (not natural FF voters) he should do well, but if Moran does well there it's wide open.
 

mangaire2

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2 FF ad 2 FG then? With an outside chance of 2 FG, 1 FF and 1 SF?
at this stage, I would predict 2 FF & 2 FG.

there should be fun & games within the Blueshirt ranks.
Senator Martin Conway has finally got on the FG ticket.
unlike the other two, he's capable of stringing a few sentences together.
during the Abortion referendum , Breen & Carey were nowhere to be seen.
Conway actually put up pro-Abortion posters with his name, but not FG on them.
I reckon he'll get support from the pro-Abortionists, many of whom may not have any party affiliation, for his efforts.
he stands a good chance of unseating one of the two sitting FG TDs.
 

the secretary

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2 FF ad 2 FG then? With an outside chance of 2 FG, 1 FF and 1 SF?
If SF are winning a seat in Clare then they are going to have a massive day nationally.
 

kbcav

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I can't see SF with a seat in Clare.
I doubt anyone on here will predict that.
SF are running 2 candidates here.Mike Mckee a councillor in Shannon and Noeleen Moran in North and West Clare.
Moran polled strongly in her first outing in 2016.Both are very active in the constituency on a whole raft of issues and i would expect the SF vote to increase significantly but running 2 rather than 1 means that they may miss out.
 

Clanrickard

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SF are running 2 candidates here.Mike Mckee a councillor in Shannon and Noeleen Moran in North and West Clare.
Moran polled strongly in her first outing in 2016.Both are very active in the constituency on a whole raft of issues and i would expect the SF vote to increase significantly but running 2 rather than 1 means that they may miss out.
That might come back to bite them but I presume they are hoping one will transfer to the other and get one of them over the line. I'd be thinking Moran is the better bett with McKee's large Shannon area raking in transfers.
 

statsman

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So, 2 and 2 it is at the moment?
 
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D

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SF winning a seat is a very outside bet, let alone 2. It would require everything to go in their favour and to be a few more points up in the polls than they are at present. Likely 2 Fg, 1 FF and one "other"
 


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