Clare: call the next GE results

D

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That other would be Harty no?
I would have thought so. But not for definite. On current polling FG have a slight edge on FF for the second seat. A rise in FF support (with no drop in FG) would in all likelihood bring in 2 FF and 2 FG to the detriment of the rest of the field.
 


statsman

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Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 

mangaire2

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I can't see SF with a seat in Clare.
I doubt anyone on here will predict that.
nah - SF won't win a seat in Clare this time.
they messed up badly in 2011, when they couldn't even field a candidate.
their organisation within the county is very weak - they have only one Co. Councillor.
it looks like 2 FG, 2 FF.
I don't think that Harty will be re-elected, but there's a slight possibility of another Independent emerging, closer to election day, & upsetting the apple cart..
 

midlander12

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FF gained 8% last time and FG lost almost 17%, yet FG on 25% held 2 their seats and FF on 30% failed to take a second. Their vote was lopsided almost 2/1 in favour of Timmy Dooley while FG's was almost evenly split. Of course this may happen again but on balance FF should pick up a seat here and FG hold their 2 as they have now every time since 2007. If Indos are in for a hiding, Harty strikes me as one of those most likely to go, not because he is a terrible TD but because he probably has less populist oomph than some of the others who may survive, like the Healy-Raes. FF 2, FG 2, SF and Lab also-rans.
 

statsman

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The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

John Deere 5820

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Martin O Loughlin to top the poll in north Clare
Slattery to come in second
With
Shane Talty and Joe Garrihy to get elected
 

Lagertha

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If SF are winning a seat in Clare then they are going to have a massive day nationally.
I don't see it happening. My local SF guy only goes to estates where he's sure of getting votes, he knows that knocking doors in my neighbourhood is pointless because people would rather gnaw off their own foot that vote SF. It's hilarious to watch them complain on Social Media about the housing crisis yet argue in favour of open borders, but with the local idiot it's even more funny that he won't engage in debate online with anyone who challenges his opinions, instead he invites them to his office to discuss it further. I haven't a clue who I'll vote for tbh, I suspect there'll be a very low turnout. People are sick of voting for the same clowns and getting the same circus but who do you vote for if you want to see serious change?
 

Clanrickard

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I don't see it happening. My local SF guy only goes to estates where he's sure of getting votes, he knows that knocking doors in my neighbourhood is pointless because people would rather gnaw off their own foot that vote SF. It's hilarious to watch them complain on Social Media about the housing crisis yet argue in favour of open borders, but with the local idiot it's even more funny that he won't engage in debate online with anyone who challenges his opinions, instead he invites them to his office to discuss it further. I haven't a clue who I'll vote for tbh, I suspect there'll be a very low turnout. People are sick of voting for the same clowns and getting the same circus but who do you vote for if you want to see serious change?
Are you referring to? I don't know the SF rep there. What about Moran in North Clare. Very active and visible.
 

Lagertha

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Nope, I'm not referring to Moran, the local guy is very active and visible, just in the few areas where he has support. In my town there's a lot of people who came from the North who vote for him because he's a SF candidate, they'd vote for a paper bag if it was the only SF candidate available. Like most Shinners, he's happy to throw dirt from the sidelines but doesn't have any viable solutions, just criticisms.
 

Clanrickard

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Nope, I'm not referring to Moran, the local guy is very active and visible, just in the few areas where he has support. In my town there's a lot of people who came from the North who vote for him because he's a SF candidate, they'd vote for a paper bag if it was the only SF candidate available. Like most Shinners, he's happy to throw dirt from the sidelines but doesn't have any viable solutions, just criticisms.
Is it McKee is his name?
 

PBP voter

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SF can't even win a seat in the locals in Clare going off the tallies.
 

MOSS1

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Along with Wexford this is surely FF's top target next time. It really does look a case of how they go about NOT winning it rather than how they go about winning it. As noted above they already overtook FG for vote share last time but in addition to vote mismanagement between Timmy Dooley and runningmates, the 3 candidate line-up also sunk them with Malty and CCM further dividing the remainder of the vote.

Should be different this time. Cathal Crowe is a strong candidate in his own right and will presumably also benefit from the boundary changes. It looks like 2 FF, 1 FG and a scrap for the last seat between the 2nd FG and Dr Harty if he runs. Talk also of Michael McNamara running as an independent. One thing that was striking across the country in the locals was that the pure Independent vote especially those FF/FG gene pool or centrist types held up very well so rumours of their demise may be exaggerated. FG though have a decent record of winning 2 seats in Clare.
 

Clanrickard

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Along with Wexford this is surely FF's top target next time. It really does look a case of how they go about NOT winning it rather than how they go about winning it. As noted above they already overtook FG for vote share last time but in addition to vote mismanagement between Timmy Dooley and runningmates, the 3 candidate line-up also sunk them with Malty and CCM further dividing the remainder of the vote.

Should be different this time. Cathal Crowe is a strong candidate in his own right and will presumably also benefit from the boundary changes. It looks like 2 FF, 1 FG and a scrap for the last seat between the 2nd FG and Dr Harty if he runs. Talk also of Michael McNamara running as an independent. One thing that was striking across the country in the locals was that the pure Independent vote especially those FF/FG gene pool or centrist types held up very well so rumours of their demise may be exaggerated. FG though have a decent record of winning 2 seats in Clare.
Doonothing, Crowe, Breen and Harty?
 

MOSS1

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Doonothing, Crowe, Breen and Harty?
I'm not sure which of the FG duo will be stronger. Maybe Joe Carey being closer to Ennis. Although despite being one of the biggest towns outside of the main cities Ennis has a poor enough record for electing TDs. Pat Breen has been ahead in all 3 of their contests but the gap at the end in 2016 was only 173 votes. It looks a close call between the 2 of them and Dr Harty for the 3rd and 4th seats.
 

midlander12

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The overall %'s here in the locals were (approx) FF 40%, FG 30%, Indos 15-20%, SF and Greens both under 10%. This was a massive jump for FF - up about 10% from the 2016 GE.

Barring a considerable improvement in the FG position, which seems unlikely, it's hard to see how this translates into FG 2, FF 1 as before. Although Harty is seen as one of the weaker Indos, on these figures he would have a good chance of reelection. On the other hand FG managed 2 seats the last time with only 25% of the vote.

On balance, FF 2, FG 1, Oth 1
 

the secretary

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The overall %'s here in the locals were (approx) FF 40%, FG 30%, Indos 15-20%, SF and Greens both under 10%. This was a massive jump for FF - up about 10% from the 2016 GE.

Barring a considerable improvement in the FG position, which seems unlikely, it's hard to see how this translates into FG 2, FF 1 as before. Although Harty is seen as one of the weaker Indos, on these figures he would have a good chance of reelection. On the other hand FG managed 2 seats the last time with only 25% of the vote.

On balance, FF 2, FG 1, Oth 1
Is it 2 FF and 2 FG now that Dr Harty is not running??
 


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