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Cllr Barry O'Neill selected for DSW by-election




SFInbhear

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Do you think he will be able to hold off SF?
O'Neill's biggest challenge will be attempting to eat into Coughlan's vote while holding as much as McGinley's 2007 vote as he can. O'Neill hails from Ballyshannon which is a large town but also a ridiculously staunch Fianna Fail area as also is Bundoran. Also it can be argued that most of McGinleys 2007 vote was personal. It wasnt a big vote considering he was the sole Fine Gael candidate. O'Neill in order to hold of both Doherty and O'Domhnaill will need to gain substantial transfers from the other candidates. The fact that two of them are in his EA could be an advantage to him.
 

kerrynorth

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Who was the other Cllr he defeated? I did not catch his name.
 

Cashel Hill

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O'Neill's biggest challenge will be attempting to eat into Coughlan's vote while holding as much as McGinley's 2007 vote as he can. O'Neill hails from Ballyshannon which is a large town but also a ridiculously staunch Fianna Fail area as also is Bundoran. Also it can be argued that most of McGinleys 2007 vote was personal. It wasnt a big vote considering he was the sole Fine Gael candidate. O'Neill in order to hold of both Doherty and O'Domhnaill will need to gain substantial transfers from the other candidates. The fact that two of them are in his EA could be an advantage to him.
I didn't think it was so, thought it was more of an relatively strong FG area in the midst of a general FF stronghold, such as Bundoran and Donegal town. Certainly was when Jim White was going on.

KN - Martin Harley from Ballybofey was the defeated nominee.
 

old westie

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I didn't think it was so, thought it was more of an relatively strong FG area in the midst of a general FF stronghold, such as Bundoran and Donegal town. Certainly was when Jim White was going on.

KN - Martin Harley from Ballybofey was the defeated nominee.
Cant agree re Ballyshannon being a very staunch Ff town does not FG control the local town council, yes bundoran is Mc Eniff town but its only small and he just made it into county council last year.
This is a great oppertunity for FG and Labour to do a dummy run for general election re vote transfer between them. Labour's Mc Brearty and FG's O Neill are at opposite end s of constituency and they should do a good general sweep of all those dont know voters along with their own votes and then who ever is strongest with the others transfers should be almost home.
This election is going to be won on TRANSFERS and this is the major weakness of FF and SF.
 

Keith-M

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I suspect this could come down to how FF transfers go, if they fall towards SF, the seat is theirsThere's a rebellious streakl about Donegal (see Lisbon II) that could a rejection not only of FFF but FG as well.
 

adamirer

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I can't help the nagging feeling that FF will hold the seat. Donegal, going into 2007 had 5 from 6 seats with FF's (admittedly due to Blaney rejoining) and even in 2007 they had over 50% of 1st prefs - ie: more than the rest combined. Even a 40% drop in 1st prefs would have them reasonably confident of the seat and several thousand ahead of what SF and FG had last time out and Doherty needs to soak up a lot of FF votes...

FG should remain much stronger than Labour, but since they can't expect too much of the FF vote they'll be counting on
a) a strong SF vote -> to bring the FF vote down and FF won't transfer to FG...
b) Labour to be eliminated before SF...

If SF go out before Labour/McBrearty, I'd say Pearse Doherty's career will be in ruins and FF will hold the seat.
 
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D

Duth Ealla

I suspect this could come down to how FF transfers go, if they fall towards SF, the seat is theirsThere's a rebellious streakl about Donegal (see Lisbon II) that could a rejection not only of FFF but FG as well.
And yet considering the dire economic situation of that county and their persistent voting in of Fianna Fail candidates there also seems to be a very conformist streak.
 

SFInbhear

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I didn't think it was so, thought it was more of an relatively strong FG area in the midst of a general FF stronghold, such as Bundoran and Donegal town. Certainly was when Jim White was going on.
I would have always seen Ballyshannon as a strong FF town, as is Donegal Town and Bundoran. Coughlan always gets strong backing in Ballyshannon but that maybe because of her family connections there. But the Locals would point to a swing towards FG which means selecting O'Neill may be also be better in the long term. He also polled strongly in Bundoran as McEniff struggled.
If O' Neill can continue to get strong backing from Ballyshannon and Bundoran it may put Calamity in trouble at the next GE and then all our Christmas's may come at once!
 

adamirer

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If O' Neill can continue to get strong backing from Ballyshannon and Bundoran it may put Calamity in trouble at the next GE and then all our Christmas's may come at once!
It would be delicious wouldn't it? One FF seat will probably fall next time out anyway.. just a matter of who. Had The Cope remained on she could have been in serious trouble... she best bring some jobs to Donegal before 2012. Sweary Mary to be 2012's Mary O'Rourke...?
 

old westie

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I would have always seen Ballyshannon as a strong FF town, as is Donegal Town and Bundoran. Coughlan always gets strong backing in Ballyshannon but that maybe because of her family connections there. But the Locals would point to a swing towards FG which means selecting O'Neill may be also be better in the long term. He also polled strongly in Bundoran as McEniff struggled.
If O' Neill can continue to get strong backing from Ballyshannon and Bundoran it may put Calamity in trouble at the next GE and then all our Christmas's may come at once!
It's likely to end up Lab/FG axis versus FF/Sf with which ever having the best transfer ratio fav to take the seat the only uncertain element is if good independents run this could muddy the waters.
 

edwin

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It's likely to end up Lab/FG axis versus FF/Sf with which ever having the best transfer ratio fav to take the seat the only uncertain element is if good independents run this could muddy the waters.
There is absolutely no Labour vote in Donegal so this is a fallacy. It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that McBrearty could get a big vote but it would be almost entirely a personal 'feck the lot of them' vote. The chances of these people transferring in large numbers to FG is marginal.
 

edwin

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I would have always seen Ballyshannon as a strong FF town, as is Donegal Town and Bundoran. Coughlan always gets strong backing in Ballyshannon but that maybe because of her family connections there. But the Locals would point to a swing towards FG which means selecting O'Neill may be also be better in the long term. He also polled strongly in Bundoran as McEniff struggled.
If O' Neill can continue to get strong backing from Ballyshannon and Bundoran it may put Calamity in trouble at the next GE and then all our Christmas's may come at once!
Ballyshannon is a traditional FG town but with no FG candidate in the locality at the last general understandably went local.

There is no chance of Coughlan being trouble at the next election. People from Donegal will close ranks behind her when the time comes. Whether you approve of this or not it is entirely consistent with rural voting patterns. The more people attack her the more support she will receive at home.
 

adamirer

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Mary dosen't have to be attacked ... she's doing all the damage herself and the media are lapping it up.

Word on the ground is that people have already closed ranks .... against her ... if you consider that the largest employer in South Donegal is the public service, .... (incl. HSE workers, Donegal county council, teachers, gardai, nurses, defence forces, revenue etc). They've suffered a 15%+ cut in wages and they ain't happy! ( i know because i'm one of them ... and a so called a "blow in" at that!) In addition she has brought little or no new enterprise to the region since being elected ... if anything the region has lost huge numbers of private sector jobs. Her lack of action concerning the retail sector will also be a factor considering the huge losses border retailers are incurring in recent times.

I take your point concerning the consistency of rural voting patterns, however, on this occasion we are in the depths of a major micro economic recession as a consequence of the property bubble, facilitated by her party. (i say micro economic because at the macro level Ireland will probably see some recovery in the later quarter of 2010). While legally she might be right, her current intransigence concerning Ryanair is reminiscent of Michael McDowell's hardline approach and unfortunately for her she'll most likely follow in his footsteps come the next GE.
See Mary Coughlin's recent very weak performance on BBC's Hardtalk. BBC News - Hardtalk - Ireland's Deputy PM defends government's record

O Neill is young, well liked, shoots from the hip and is perceived as a "go getter" when it comes to getting things done, especially among young voters. One only has to look at his organisational abilities around the now internationally known Rory Gallagher festival, which is a huge tourism multiplier for S. Donegal and his regional profile in the save sligo cancer services campaign.

I suggest that the geopolitical terrain in this part of the world may change drastically in the next GE.

Prediction (for what it's worth) .... McBrearty, O Neill and O Domhnail .... if of course the constituency boundary remains as is! (Rumour has it that north leitrim will be included with s. donegal as a three seater in which case O Neill will benefit further given his geographical proximity to places such as the Kinlough and Manorhamilton hinterlands). :cool:
very dramatic and ballsy prediction... And while i'd be surprised if it came to pass, it's the kind of opinionated post, that regardless of accuracy, is informed and non abusive, so kudos. 1 FG and 1 FF here in 2012... the final seat will be interesting - and Doherty has to be more likely than McBrearty for it and FF 2nd candidate will be very much in the mix. The by-election will make it a lot clearer, not only for Donegal, but for what the feeling REALLY is when it comes to the crunch is what have been staunchly FF rural areas. FF have a lot more to lose and worry about in Donegal South than Dublin South.
 

Mr.Ograff

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The Boundary commission isnt due to sit for another few years so I doubt North Leitrim will change and if anything is to change it will be Leitrim re-united. Regardless its a mess.

As for Ballyshannon as posters have said it is a FG town surrounded by FF.

In regards to Labour, 2 seats on a council of 25 would not suggest that they are about to take a seat in Donegal. Its a three horse race with FF holding the key. I would not be suprised if you see a lot of non-transferables when either SF or FF go out.
 

old westie

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There is absolutely no Labour vote in Donegal so this is a fallacy. It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that McBrearty could get a big vote but it would be almost entirely a personal 'feck the lot of them' vote. The chances of these people transferring in large numbers to FG is marginal.
Rule nothing out my friend we live in strange times, true there is no labour vote in the county but people have a habit of bucking the trend now and again, Remember thomas Gildea one of the greatest dummies ever in the dail and voted in by the electorate of donegal south west.
 

old westie

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Mary dosen't have to be attacked ... she's doing all the damage herself and the media are lapping it up.

Word on the ground is that people have already closed ranks .... against her ... if you consider that the largest employer in South Donegal is the public service, .... (incl. HSE workers, Donegal county council, teachers, gardai, nurses, defence forces, revenue etc). They've suffered a 15%+ cut in wages and they ain't happy! ( i know because i'm one of them ... and a so called a "blow in" at that!) In addition she has brought little or no new enterprise to the region since being elected ... if anything the region has lost huge numbers of private sector jobs. Her lack of action concerning the retail sector will also be a factor considering the huge losses border retailers are incurring in recent times.

I take your point concerning the consistency of rural voting patterns, however, on this occasion we are in the depths of a major micro economic recession as a consequence of the property bubble, facilitated by her party. (i say micro economic because at the macro level Ireland will probably see some recovery in the later quarter of 2010). While legally she might be right, her current intransigence concerning Ryanair is reminiscent of Michael McDowell's hardline approach and unfortunately for her she'll most likely follow in his footsteps come the next GE.
See Mary Coughlin's recent very weak performance on BBC's Hardtalk. BBC News - Hardtalk - Ireland's Deputy PM defends government's record

O Neill is young, well liked, shoots from the hip and is perceived as a "go getter" when it comes to getting things done, especially among young voters. One only has to look at his organisational abilities around the now internationally known Rory Gallagher festival, which is a huge tourism multiplier for S. Donegal and his regional profile in the save sligo cancer services campaign.

I suggest that the geopolitical terrain in this part of the world may change drastically in the next GE.

Prediction (for what it's worth) .... McBrearty, O Neill and O Domhnail .... if of course the constituency boundary remains as is! (Rumour has it that north leitrim will be included with s. donegal as a three seater in which case O Neill will benefit further given his geographical proximity to places such as the Kinlough and Manorhamilton hinterlands). :cool:
Very well developed insight follower and i agree with you. When you say Mc B and O Neill ,O Domhnail what do you mean, i presume its their status after 1st count or are you dreaming of a general election.:oops::oops:
 

pandora

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This is a great oppertunity for FG and Labour to do a dummy run for general election re vote transfer between them. Labour's Mc Brearty and FG's O Neill are at opposite end s of constituency and they should do a good general sweep of all those dont know voters along with their own votes and then who ever is strongest with the others transfers should be almost home.
This election is going to be won on TRANSFERS and this is the major weakness of FF and SF.
That sounds logical but McBrearty's votes are McBrearty votes not Labour ones and they are a protest vote who won't just give their number 2 to whoever somebody tells them to.

I agree transfers will win this but it will be very hard to tell who will transfer where, or even in which order the candidates get eliminated.
 

old westie

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That sounds logical but McBrearty's votes are McBrearty votes not Labour ones and they are a protest vote who won't just give their number 2 to whoever somebody tells them to.

I agree transfers will win this but it will be very hard to tell who will transfer where, or even in which order the candidates get eliminated.
Will the media frenzy towards mary coughlan help or hinder the FF effort in DSW, the 2 main party's probally should be and will be rounded on and a protest vote will manifiest itself, this would be an eye opener to the political system in the country if it happened.
Not until something like this happens will we get serious political debate and policies from the main parties, unlike the present where we have FG/LAB taking it for granted its their turn for power and then in 5 yrs FF will feel its their turn.
 

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