Cllr Sean McManus about to leave SF: Sindo

kerrynorth

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Maybe not the best source for this but according to the Sindo longtime Sligo Cllr Sean McManus is about to leave SF, the 3rd SF Cllr in a week. The article does not make any mention of his son who is also a Sligo Cllr. If true it would indicate a full blown crises within SF. Cllr McManus was a SF Cllr at a time before it was popular to be one, a longtime stalwart, he was one of SF's key targets to win a Dail seat.

<DC> Here is the article from the Sunday Independent.
 


kerrynorth

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My error. Could a mod put this is into the SF forum.
 

factual

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kerrynorth said:
Maybe not the best source for this but according to the Sindo longtime Sligo Cllr Sean McManus is about to leave SF, the 3rd SF Cllr in a week. The article does not make any mention of his son who is also a Sligo Cllr. If true it would indicate a full blown crises within SF. Cllr McManus was a SF Cllr at a time before it was popular to be one, a longtime stalwart, he was one of SF's key targets to win a Dail seat.
I see the Independent is actually predicting two further resignations. I wouldn't regard the Sunday Independent as a reliable source. Why do they say he is allegedly leaving? Nobody likes to lose an elected representative but I would not describe the loss of a few councillors a crisis.
 

Keith-M

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factual said:
I see the Independent is actually predicting two further resignations. I wouldn't regard the Sunday Independent as a reliable source. Why do they say he is allegedly leaving? Nobody likes to lose an elected representative but I would not describe the loss of a few councillors a crisis.
It is after a general election when you went backwards and when your party claims that its councillors are the base for further progress.
 

factual

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Keith-M said:
factual said:
I see the Independent is actually predicting two further resignations. I wouldn't regard the Sunday Independent as a reliable source. Why do they say he is allegedly leaving? Nobody likes to lose an elected representative but I would not describe the loss of a few councillors a crisis.
It is after a general election when you went backwards and when your party claims that its councillors are the base for further progress.
First off, Sinn Féin did not go backwards in t he general election. In fact SF increaed both its share and its absolute numbner of voters, and is in a bettter position in terms of number of potentially winnable seats moving forward. Second off, the loss of a few councillors is insignificant in the big scheme of things, Sinn Féin have a lot of hard working councillors. Sinn Féin have increased their number of votes in each and every like-for like election in the 26 counties since the 1980s, a very impressive record that none of the 26 county parties can match.
 

Keith-M

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factual said:
Keith-M said:
factual said:
I see the Independent is actually predicting two further resignations. I wouldn't regard the Sunday Independent as a reliable source. Why do they say he is allegedly leaving? Nobody likes to lose an elected representative but I would not describe the loss of a few councillors a crisis.
It is after a general election when you went backwards and when your party claims that its councillors are the base for further progress.
First off, Sinn Féin did not go backwards in t he general election. In fact SF increaed both its share and its absolute numbner of voters, and is in a bettter position in terms of number of potentially winnable seats moving forward. Second off, the loss of a few councillors is insignificant in the big scheme of things, Sinn Féin have a lot of hard working councillors. Sinn Féin have increased their number of votes in each and every like-for like election in the 26 counties since the 1980s, a very impressive record that none of the 26 county parties can match.
An election result is based on seats, won pure and simple. In 2002, SF won 5, in 2007 they won four. When you compare the vote share in constituencies where they ran in both elections, they went down. The only reason their vote went up is that they stood in more constituencies, this is totally worthless for comparitive purposes. Thereforefore to say that SF vote share went up is simply an exercise in smoke and morrors, we all know the truth, you're not dealing with novices here.

Also, please spare me the "winnable seats" nonsense. My vote is in Dublin Central, now do your really need to be reminded of how that "winnable seat" went?
 

ergo

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If McManus leaves SF they are in deep trouble in the West. He has been a long time SF representative and is highly respected.

It does look as SF have peaked in the ROI.
 

qtman

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Keith-M said:
factual said:
[quote="Keith-M":2iyx1k2k]
factual said:
I see the Independent is actually predicting two further resignations. I wouldn't regard the Sunday Independent as a reliable source. Why do they say he is allegedly leaving? Nobody likes to lose an elected representative but I would not describe the loss of a few councillors a crisis.
It is after a general election when you went backwards and when your party claims that its councillors are the base for further progress.
First off, Sinn Féin did not go backwards in t he general election. In fact SF increaed both its share and its absolute numbner of voters, and is in a bettter position in terms of number of potentially winnable seats moving forward. Second off, the loss of a few councillors is insignificant in the big scheme of things, Sinn Féin have a lot of hard working councillors. Sinn Féin have increased their number of votes in each and every like-for like election in the 26 counties since the 1980s, a very impressive record that none of the 26 county parties can match.
An election result is based on seats, won pure and simple. In 2002, SF won 5, in 2007 they won four. When you compare the vote share in constituencies where they ran in both elections, they went down. The only reason their vote went up is that they stood in more constituencies, this is totally worthless for comparitive purposes. Thereforefore to say that SF vote share went up is simply an exercise in smoke and morrors, we all know the truth, you're not dealing with novices here.

Also, please spare me the "winnable seats" nonsense. My vote is in Dublin Central, now do your really need to be reminded of how that "winnable seat" went?[/quote:2iyx1k2k]

Thats also true of the GP. The only reason the GP went marginally up was because we ran a candidate in every constituency. In several constituencies where we put down a good footprint in 2002, we lost votes in 2007 (e.g. Kildare North, Clare). The GP lucked out with Gormley, Cuffe and Mary White. On another day, we could have lost 3 seats. The fortunes of the GP and SF next time out will largely be determined by whether or not FG and Lab do a pact, in that there will be another squeeze.
 

factual

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ergo said:
If McManus leaves SF they are in deep trouble in the West. He has been a long time SF representative and is highly respected.

It does look as SF have peaked in the ROI.
:roll: :roll: :roll:
 

factual

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Keith-M said:
ergo said:
It does look as SF have peaked in the ROI.
Indeed, given the party's decline in Dublin, I wouldn't be putting my money on MLM holding her Euro seat if FF get their act together.
LOL There is nothing further from the truth, because of all the parties SF is the only one which has increased its number of votes in each and every like for like election since the 1980s!

MLM I would say will safely hold her Euro seat, given her profile and record of work at Europe. However we do not know how the seats will be reorganised. Ireland is losing 1 MEP next time and the number of seats per constituency will be important, with the potential for SF getting more seats if the number of seats per constituency increases (which results in fairer outcomes).
 

Keith-M

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qtman said:
Thats also true of the GP. The only reason the GP went marginally up was because we ran a candidate in every constituency. In several constituencies where we put down a good footprint in 2002, we lost votes in 2007 (e.g. Kildare North, Clare). The GP lucked out with Gormley, Cuffe and Mary White. On another day, we could have lost 3 seats. The fortunes of the GP and SF next time out will largely be determined by whether or not FG and Lab do a pact, in that there will be another squeeze.
There's no question that the GP were lucky, and like SF I don't see much progress in future. Almost all the GP seats are dependant on transfers and more specifically FG and Labour transfers. I'm not sure that they will be so forthcoming after five years in government with FF. I think all the other parties will be circling like vultures over the GP seats in about three years time and I wouldn't be surprised to see a result similar to that of the PDs in May.

If Labour has any sense they will stay away from FG for the next five years. The pact only benefitted one party and made Labour look like the wooden leg that propted up Captain Kenny.

Far be it for me to guide Labour Party policity, but they need to find key policy differences from FF and FG, and mark out priorities that would not be negotiated away in any deal with either FF or FG. They should then be eqi-distant from both parties and let the public decide who they want as Taoiseach.
 

Keith-M

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factual said:
Keith-M said:
ergo said:
It does look as SF have peaked in the ROI.
Indeed, given the party's decline in Dublin, I wouldn't be putting my money on MLM holding her Euro seat if FF get their act together.
LOL There is nothing further from the truth, because of all the parties SF is the only one which has increased its number of votes in each and every like for like election since the 1980s!
Nonsense. Have a look at SF's vote share in Dublin in 2002 and 2007.

MLM I would say will safely hold her Euro seat, given her profile and record of work at Europe. However we do not know how the seats will be reorganised. Ireland is losing 1 MEP next time and the number of seats per constituency will be important, with the potential for SF getting more seats if the number of seats per constituency increases (which results in fairer outcomes).
Her "profile" only managed to DECREASE SF's vote in DC.

I think we're most likely to have four three seat constituencies in two years time (unless we manage to retain the "lost" seat). That will make it even harder for MLM. Even if it remains a 4 seater, she will lose out if the SF vote continues to decline like it did in the past five years.
 

qtman

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Keith-M said:
qtman said:
Thats also true of the GP. The only reason the GP went marginally up was because we ran a candidate in every constituency. In several constituencies where we put down a good footprint in 2002, we lost votes in 2007 (e.g. Kildare North, Clare). The GP lucked out with Gormley, Cuffe and Mary White. On another day, we could have lost 3 seats. The fortunes of the GP and SF next time out will largely be determined by whether or not FG and Lab do a pact, in that there will be another squeeze.
There's no question that the GP were lucky, and like SF I don't see much progress in future. Almost all the GP seats are dependant on transfers and more specifically FG and Labour transfers.
That bit isn't true.

GP seats arise from FF transfers as much as FG/Lab transfers, in all of the constituencies where the GP have seats.

However, there are several constituencies where FG and Lab seats are dependent on GP transfers.
 

wombat

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Keith-M said:
Far be it for me to guide Labour Party policity, but they need to find key policy differences from FF and FG, and mark out priorities that would not be negotiated away in any deal with either FF or FG. They should then be eqi-distant from both parties and let the public decide who they want as Taoiseach.
The problem with that is that these different policies will be different to what the majority of the people want - that's why they vote FF or FG.
 

factual

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Keith-M said:
MLM I would say will safely hold her Euro seat, given her profile and record of work at Europe. However we do not know how the seats will be reorganised. Ireland is losing 1 MEP next time and the number of seats per constituency will be important, with the potential for SF getting more seats if the number of seats per constituency increases (which results in fairer outcomes).
Her "profile" only managed to DECREASE SF's vote in DC.

I think we're most likely to have four three seat constituencies in two years time (unless we manage to retain the "lost" seat). That will make it even harder for MLM. Even if it remains a 4 seater, she will lose out if the SF vote continues to decline like it did in the past five years.
You get a very different dynamic at Euro elections than at General Elections, a dynamic that I think will help SF as the two-party squeeze is less relevant. Therefore I think Mary Lou will be able to keep her seat.
 

Keith-M

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qtman said:
Keith-M said:
qtman said:
Thats also true of the GP. The only reason the GP went marginally up was because we ran a candidate in every constituency. In several constituencies where we put down a good footprint in 2002, we lost votes in 2007 (e.g. Kildare North, Clare). The GP lucked out with Gormley, Cuffe and Mary White. On another day, we could have lost 3 seats. The fortunes of the GP and SF next time out will largely be determined by whether or not FG and Lab do a pact, in that there will be another squeeze.
There's no question that the GP were lucky, and like SF I don't see much progress in future. Almost all the GP seats are dependant on transfers and more specifically FG and Labour transfers.
That bit isn't true.

GP seats arise from FF transfers as much as FG/Lab transfers, in all of the constituencies where the GP have seats.

However, there are several constituencies where FG and Lab seats are dependent on GP transfers.
Proportionally far more FG and Labour transfers go to the Greens than do FF ones. The impact wasn't as noticable in May as there were less FG transfers flushing around as they were needed to get FG candidates elected.
 

qtman

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Keith-M said:
qtman said:
[quote="Keith-M":taynesr9]
qtman said:
Thats also true of the GP. The only reason the GP went marginally up was because we ran a candidate in every constituency. In several constituencies where we put down a good footprint in 2002, we lost votes in 2007 (e.g. Kildare North, Clare). The GP lucked out with Gormley, Cuffe and Mary White. On another day, we could have lost 3 seats. The fortunes of the GP and SF next time out will largely be determined by whether or not FG and Lab do a pact, in that there will be another squeeze.
There's no question that the GP were lucky, and like SF I don't see much progress in future. Almost all the GP seats are dependant on transfers and more specifically FG and Labour transfers.
That bit isn't true.

GP seats arise from FF transfers as much as FG/Lab transfers, in all of the constituencies where the GP have seats.

However, there are several constituencies where FG and Lab seats are dependent on GP transfers.
Proportionally far more FG and Labour transfers go to the Greens than do FF ones. The impact wasn't as noticable in May as there were less FG transfers flushing around as they were needed to get FG candidates elected.[/quote:taynesr9]

That just a myth perpetuated by FG and Lab, based on the 2002 election when several GP candidates were able to benefit from FG transfers because FG candidates got so few FPVs.

FG recovered all of its FPVs in 2007 and the GP were still able to get the same number of TDs elected, which shows the GP benefit from transfers from all parties equally. 2002 was a special case, in which the GP got more seats than their vote merited, but the dynamics of 2002 are unlikely to be repeated in the next General Election.
 

slapbangwhallop

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kerrynorth said:
Maybe not the best source for this but according to the Sindo longtime Sligo Cllr Sean McManus is about to leave SF, the 3rd SF Cllr in a week. The article does not make any mention of his son who is also a Sligo Cllr. If true it would indicate a full blown crises within SF. Cllr McManus was a SF Cllr at a time before it was popular to be one, a longtime stalwart, he was one of SF's key targets to win a Dail seat.
Thats all news to me and I would be very surprised if it was to happen - he may retire after failing to get his seat in the Dail but I cant see him standing as an independent or anything - does this mean his son Chris and Arthur Gibbons are also considering resigning the SF whip on Sligo Corpo??
 

Insider2007

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qtman said:
Keith-M said:
qtman said:
Thats also true of the GP. The only reason the GP went marginally up was because we ran a candidate in every constituency. In several constituencies where we put down a good footprint in 2002, we lost votes in 2007 (e.g. Kildare North, Clare). The GP lucked out with Gormley, Cuffe and Mary White. On another day, we could have lost 3 seats. The fortunes of the GP and SF next time out will largely be determined by whether or not FG and Lab do a pact, in that there will be another squeeze.
There's no question that the GP were lucky, and like SF I don't see much progress in future. Almost all the GP seats are dependant on transfers and more specifically FG and Labour transfers.
That bit isn't true.

GP seats arise from FF transfers as much as FG/Lab transfers, in all of the constituencies where the GP have seats.

However, there are several constituencies where FG and Lab seats are dependent on GP transfers.
That is a DOWNRIGHT LIE.

In Dun Laoghaire a grand total of 113 FF votes went to the Greens (4.94%). In contrast Cuffe got 3984 FG votes. It was Regan's transfers that put Cuffe ahead of Boyd Barrett. Mary White received 3600 transfers from FG and Labour. She received 621 from FF. Trevor Sargent only got 29 votes from FF and 192 from FG. Eamon Ryan received 145 FF transfers. FG-Lab transferred 3576. Even the PDs transferred more to the Greens than FF.

You have a reputation for anti-FG rants on thread after thread. But to stoop to the extent of telling an ABSOLUTE and TOTAL LIE here when you state "GP seats arise from FF transfers as much as FG/Lab transfers" destroys whatever remaining ounce of credibility you had on this site.
 


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