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"Coalition will struggle to hold seats" says SINDO


davehiggz

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John Drennan is giving us his political analysis today in the Sunday Independent off the back of some poor poll results for the coalition in the past week.

Coalition will struggle to hold seats, says poll - National News - Independent.ie

I always remember Drennan from before the last election when he predicted that Labour would get MORE seats than Fine Gael at the last election. His pull out section detailed every constituency and how Labour was going to win big in all of them.....

Today he makes another set of inaccurate predictions on the next election.

Astonishingly, given the scale of the Coalition's majority just 11 per cent of poll respondents said a FG/Labour Coalition would be their preferred Coalition option after the next general election.

What will be perhaps even more surprising, within the context of their recent respective pasts a Sinn Fein/Fianna Fail Coalition secured a similar level of support.

In an indication of an ongoing rise in support for FF the other most popular options were FF/Independents, 9 per cent and FG/FF which secured the support of 7 per cent of those who were polled.

However, in what can only be viewed as a strong indicator of public distaste for politicians and the political process, the two most popular responses, at 22 per cent each, were 'Don't Know' and 'None of these/Other combinations'.

The essential rejection by 44 per cent of the electorate of all current possible political permutations is also indicative of a strong level of latent support for a new political party.
22+22+7+9+11+11 = 82%..... :confused:

When it comes to likely seat losses the figures suggest the Coalition would particularly struggle in constituencies such as Cork South-East and Dublin Mid-West where they managed the astonishing political feat of winning all available seats in 2011 whilst there will be no reprise of the Coalition's feat of winning four out of five seats in the 2011 five-seat constituencies of Wicklow, Mayo and Dublin South.
Cork South-East does not exist, he means Cork South West.

ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Cork South West First Preference Votes

Labour shouldn't have gotten that seat to begin with. Even if the polls were the same as GE11, Fianna Fáil would win that seat back.

ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Dublin Mid West First Preference Votes

I admit a more real danger in Mid-West, but I can't see BOTH SF and FF making gains here. Sinn Féin will take a seat from Labour, but Fianna Fáil recovering their seat is far from certain. Will Curran run again?

Mayo and Dublin South are now down to 4 and 3 seats respectively. Of course the coalition won't retain 4 seats in each.....


One source told the Sunday Independent: "Phil is very much the number two dog in the town of Kilkenny to John McGuinness and he's the number two dog in the country to John Paul Phelan. Pat Deering has embedded himself in Carlow. It could be a very long count for Phil if he runs in the next election."
I think he means county....

ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Carlow Kilkenny First Preference Votes

Labour's seat will go first before Phil's 10000+ votes are eaten away at. The only way for Phil to lose his seat is for Sinn Féin to take it, and that's very, very unlikely.

Though his age means he is unlikely to run again, should he do so the unpopular Justice Minister Alan Shatter, who barely scraped into the last seat in Dublin South in the previous election is poised to be the major casualty of the FF revival in Dublin.
Nonsense, Shatter will be casualty to the boundary review. Rathdown is now 3 seats. Having said that there will be at least one Fine Gael seat. Hard to see Fianna Fáil taking a seat in Rathdown considering they polled their LOWEST vote nationwide in the old Dublin South. Rathdown may well go 2FG, 1IND on the back of Labour transfers.

James Reilly, whose unpopularity reached the unprecedented level of 30 per cent in the last Sunday Independent Millward Brown rating of Cabinet Ministers, will be another major target whilst Children's Minister Frances Fitzgerald will be acutely aware of the threat posed to her by a pincer movement of FF and Sinn Fein.
ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Dublin North First Preference Votes

Dublin North is now a 5-seater. Fianna Fáil will probably take the new seat, but the rest are likely to remain. Even if Fine Gael was down to one seat, Reilly will take it over Alan Farrell.

ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Dublin Mid West First Preference Votes

Even if FF AND SF take seats here, Frances Fitzgerald will poll above Keating and hold the one Fine Gael seat. Wishful thinking to suggest otherwise.

Other ministers who could be in trouble are Labour's Kathleen Lynch and the former PD leader and current FG Minister Ciaran Cannon and Junior Enterprise Minister John Perry,
ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Cork North Central First Preference Votes

Labour have a large buffer of votes for them to hold one seat. All seats will stay the same here next time in terms of the parties. Socialists would have to take her seat and that will not happen.

ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Galway East First Preference Votes

Galway East is now 3 seats. Despite that, the cut has impacted on Connaughton's vote, much more than Cannon's. It's also important to remember that Keaveney is a goner next time. There's at least one FG seat here and Cannon looks poised to hold it.

ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Sligo Leitrim North First Preference Votes

Sligo is now 4 seats and Perry is a poll topper. He's not at risk.

Though the Labour top table is in somewhat less trouble the backlash against the party, particularly in Munster and Connacht-Ulster where the party is polling at less than 10 per cent, means a number of talented Junior Ministers such as Sean Sherlock and Alan Kelly, who are seen by insiders to be the next generation of leaders, will be in serious political trouble.
ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Cork East First Preference Votes

Sherlock's a poll topper with a massive buffer of Labour votes behind him. Fine Gael will sooner lost one of their two seats than Sherlock losing his.

ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Tipperary North First Preference Votes

Tipperary is now a 5-seater. If Alan Kelly is their only candidate then there should be enough votes for him to hold on.


The whole article is a collection of speculative nonsense without any regard to the boundary changes or basic statistics.

Rant over.
 

controller

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Feb 25, 2009
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Come the next election, you lot are still toast. Good riddance to you. You're no better than FF
 

gijoe

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The gobsh1te that is John Drennan strikes again in that article.

When it comes to likely seat losses the figures suggest the Coalition would particularly struggle in constituencies such as Cork South-East and Dublin Mid-West where they managed the astonishing political feat of winning all available seats in 2011 whilst there will be no reprise of the Coalition's feat of winning four out of five seats in the 2011 five-seat constituencies of Wicklow, Mayo and Dublin South.
Well done John! Mayo will only be a 4 seater and Dublin South a 3 seater next time out you bluffer!!
 

wombat

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Jun 16, 2007
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The whole article is a collection of speculative nonsense without any regard to the boundary changes or basic statistics.

Rant over.
Its the Sindo, who cares?
 

sic transit

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Jan 30, 2008
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Come the next election, you lot are still toast. Good riddance to you. You're no better than FF
It's a cold wet day in eh.... January 2013, at least two years from an election, a very peculiar poll indeed and it's the Sindo. Surely these polling companies talk to each other and they are aware if they are polling. Two polls this close in an election campaign make sense but pretty pointless at present.
 

Keith-M

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The whole article is a collection of speculative nonsense without any regard to the boundary changes or basic statistics.

Rant over.
Were you not previously familiar with the "work" of Drennan? Seriously. It's only worth reading anything he writes , if you are is desperate or in need of a laugh.
 
Last edited:

Cato

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Were you not previously familiar with he "work" of Drennan? Seriously. It's only worth reading anything he write , if you are is desperate need of a laugh.
Are you the pot or kettle in this scenario? Two seats, anyone?
 

Analyzer

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Feb 14, 2011
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Were you not previously familiar with he "work" of Drennan? Seriously. It's only worth reading anything he write , if you are is desperate need of a laugh.
In fairness you could say that about the entire Dublin print media. Drivel factories.
 

Analyzer

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We need three new political parties. To make sure tha FF do not get any reprise.
 

bob3367

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Jan 11, 2007
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I didnt realise that there was an election in the offing....

Really this country seems to have its priorities arse about face....
 

Mr. Bumble

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Mr. Bumble

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It refers to some of Keith's "analysis". About as meaningful as Drennan's scriblings.
Did he predict that some party would get only two seats? Which party?
 

corporal punishment

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We need a new media. I haven't bought an Irish newspaper in years.
 

YT1989

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Lab loss in CSW should keep 2 safe for FG, gain for FF and no one else capable of taking it.

Think both FF and SF could make gains in DMW. Think FG/Lab even holding onto 3 out of the 4 is unrealistic. Will probably boil down to Lucan/Clondalkin split as to who looses out but makes sense that Tuffy and Fitzgerald will hold on.

FG can realistically look at keeping 2 and 3 in DS and Mayo respectively. Though would need to be around the 30% mark and will depend on who else is in competition.

Despite DN increase both Lab and second FG seat in danger.

Lab should of taken 2 in CNC, no reason Kathleen Lynch will loose out. Though in CSC, very likely that Ciaran Lynch will loose out if FF can keep their 2 in a 4 seater.

GE will most likely be 2 FG 1 FF, only a challenge by a strong Ind could dislodge second FG seat... thats not likely to be Keaveny, as even if he runs next time as an Ind, Lab will make an effort through Lorraine Higgins to stop him taking it.

Extra seat in S/L should allow for FF to make again along with FG keeping both seats there.

Second FG seat vulnerable to FF in CE... same deal with Lab as in CNC. Large Lab vote combined with Sherlock's personal vote should see him well safe.

Tipperary will see 1 FG, 1 FF, Michael Lowery and a toss up between FG, Healy and Kelly(Lab) for final two. Given Kelly is likely to be in cabinet by next election he seems to be a safe enough bet.

Have to agree that the whole article is complete nonsense... typical SINDO.
 
S

simeongrimes

I used to enjoy speculation about elections and constituencies. It all seems pointless now. If any combination of FF/FG/Labour have an overall majority then we get no change. As that is the most likely outcome then the next election is of no consequence to anyone except political groupies who care about election rather than politics.
 

YT1989

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Oct 31, 2012
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Likely Govt... they left out FG and FF single party and Lab/SF.

We have enough parties in terms of numbers but not in terms of ideological/policy choice.

FG... mix between Christian Democrats/Liberals/Conservative trying to become a big tent centrist party.

Lab... the only major party that should fit into an ideology(Social Democracy) but built around localisms and a conservative TU movement. Not to mention dominated by non-idealogical figures, whether they be parish pump types or former Workers' Party.

FF... Populist that have a different ideology depending who they're talking to. Aligned with the European Liberals & Democrats, but have conservative and social democratic tendencies. Focus on short term electioneering above long term vision for society.

SF... fills the space of both the Left and populist Nationalist-Right of other European Countries. Also prone to populism. Hard to tell what the ideology is beneath the rhetoric.

ULA... to divided and focused on personality to be the broad left wing party it should be.

Independents... about 20 of them in the Dail now, mainly focused on local issues and a sign of whats wrong with our political system.
 

tigerben

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Sep 21, 2010
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It seems in ireland the political season is
Election needed
Election Held
Election Eulogy
and Honey moon for whoever gets in, before the cycle starts again.
Is it this and property sales that editors need to sell the papers?
 
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