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Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind



Baron von Biffo

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May 16, 2007
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12,013
Think so too, can't see any reason for prolonging it.

Let's hope against hope that the electorate will note the gobshitery of a large portion of the independents, from Ross to Mattie to the Healy Raes.

If Kerry re-elects the Healy-Raes, I propose building a wall.. and ensuring they are excluded from tendering for the contract!
Can we do the same for Dublin if Boyd-Barret, Coppinger, Daly, Murphy, et al are returned at the next GE?
 

the secretary

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Jan 29, 2013
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5,922
Can we do the same for Dublin if Boyd-Barret, Coppinger, Daly, Murphy, et al are returned at the next GE?
Geno Kenny, Brid Smith and Lord Ross can be added to that list too.
God but Dublin elects some twats
 

Hitchcock

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Nov 17, 2012
Messages
10,222
Geno Kenny, Brid Smith and Lord Ross can be added to that list too.
God but Dublin elects some twats
Says the poster from the county that elected such intellectual political giants as Mary Coughlan, Pat the Cope and Joe McHugh :wink:
 

the secretary

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Says the poster from the county that elected such intellectual political giants as Mary Coughlan, Pat the Cope and Joe McHugh :wink:
All fine ministers in their own right.
Where the trash I named are 2 left wing nut jobs and 1 posh twat that would be best suited to the House of Lords.
 

statsman

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Feb 25, 2011
Messages
56,265
The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

midlander12

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Jul 29, 2008
Messages
5,750
Opinion poll in tomorrow's Indo - little change really, bit of a boost for FF actually as the only ones not down:-

'The state of the parties when ‘don’t knows’ are excluded are: Fine Gael (32pc) down 2 points since April and down four points since February; Fianna Fail (27pc) unchanged; Sinn Fein (21pc) down one point; Labour (5pc) unchanged; Greens (1pc) down 2 points and Independents/Others (14pc) up three points.'

Varadkar's, Martin's and McDonald's ratings all down to 49%, 40% and 37% respectively. MLMD is down 9% apparently.

Poll: Public becoming increasingly dissatisfied with Varadkar and Fine Gael - Independent.ie
 

DJP

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Messages
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Opinion poll in tomorrow's Indo - little change really, bit of a boost for FF actually as the only ones not down:-

'The state of the parties when ‘don’t knows’ are excluded are: Fine Gael (32pc) down 2 points since April and down four points since February; Fianna Fail (27pc) unchanged; Sinn Fein (21pc) down one point; Labour (5pc) unchanged; Greens (1pc) down 2 points and Independents/Others (14pc) up three points.'

Varadkar's, Martin's and McDonald's ratings all down to 49%, 40% and 37% respectively. MLMD is down 9% apparently.

Poll: Public becoming increasingly dissatisfied with Varadkar and Fine Gael - Independent.ie
Is this another poll where they rated the "Don't Knows" as "most likely to vote for" etc even though nearly half of people in the country don't vote? It's remarkable that some opinion polls have for instance SF in the mid-teens and others at or around the same time have them in the early-to-mid 20's.
 

Hitchcock

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Nov 17, 2012
Messages
10,222
All fine ministers in their own right.
Where the trash I named are 2 left wing nut jobs and 1 posh twat that would be best suited to the House of Lords.
What happened to the country when Mary Coughlan was a minister? 'Fine' indeed!
 

hollandia

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Sep 11, 2012
Messages
30,893
Looking at saturday evening's poll by Millward Brown, I estimate:

FF 43
FG 61
SF 33
Lab 2
Grn 0
Sol-PBP 0
SD 1
Ind 20
 

sic transit

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Jan 30, 2008
Messages
25,662
Looking at saturday evening's poll by Millward Brown, I estimate:

FF 43
FG 61
SF 33
Lab 2
Grn 0
Sol-PBP 0
SD 1
Ind 20
With 30% odd not caring I am not sure this holds any water at all.
 

locke

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Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,178
nearly half of people in the country don't vote?
34.9% of the electoral register didn't vote in the last General Election.

However, I've heard from someone working on it that about 20% of the electoral register should be removed, so it's probably closer to 20% of potential voters who don't vote in General Elections.

It makes no sense to include the don't knows as otherwise it just looks like every party is down. It's how companies do it that is one of the largest reasons for divergence in opinion polls. Does someone who says the don't know mean that the won't vote? Does it mean they won't say who they will vote for? Does it mean that they genuinely don't know? The way different companies distribute the don't knows is a result of getting burned in the past and learning from it.

Millward Brown were pretty accurate last time. They were within 1% for every party, except Sinn Féin, who they did significantly overestimate by 5% and AAA/PBP where they were out by 1.1%. Most of those votes went to Independents who were underestimated, but Independents are incredibly hard to poll. e.g. there were no Independents in Laois.
 

sic transit

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Jan 30, 2008
Messages
25,662
Well if 70% turn out for a general election, it indicates more people care than normally.
You can't identify 29% don't knows a week before Christmas 2018 as being out of the equation any more than you can claim the 71% will actually vote. It's really not good data. GIGO as they say!
 

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