statsman
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2011
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SDs will have 2 minimum.Looking at saturday evening's poll by Millward Brown, I estimate:
FF 43
FG 61
SF 33
Lab 2
Grn 0
Sol-PBP 0
SD 1
Ind 20
SDs will have 2 minimum.Looking at saturday evening's poll by Millward Brown, I estimate:
FF 43
FG 61
SF 33
Lab 2
Grn 0
Sol-PBP 0
SD 1
Ind 20
You would think so, but that's on the 1% attributed to them in this poll. It gets a bit fuzzy in the lower numbers unless the %ages have at least one decimals. 1% could equally be 1.49% rounded down.SDs will have 2 minimum.
Aren't all polls like that?You can't identify 29% don't knows a week before Christmas 2018 as being out of the equation any more than you can claim the 71% will actually vote. It's really not good data. GIGO as they say!
The ones closest to polling day tend to have pretty small DK contingent and usually end up a lot closer to the result.Aren't all polls like that?
Yes, that's true, but they are a fraction of all polls. And we only comment and speculate on the ones in front of us.The ones closest to polling day tend to have pretty small DK contingent and usually end up a lot closer to the result.
That poll in the Sunday Indo., crap only 920 people were surveyed with a margin of error +- 3.2%Aren't all polls like that?
It isn't a great sample size admittedly, but remember that the 3.2% only applies to a party getting 50% of the vote and that it declines as the numbers go down. It's still around 3% for FG and 2.5% for Sinn Féin, but it's 1.4% at Labour's level and 0.6% once you are down at the Green and Social Democrat level, where rounding is more important than Margin of Error.That poll in the Sunday Indo., crap only 920 people were surveyed with a margin of error +- 3.2%
There's no poling company polls more than 1200. 1000 is typically the norm. The single exception to that was RTE's Presidential Election exit poll with almost 3500 respondents. a 3% MOE is also pretty much the norm.That poll in the Sunday Indo., crap only 920 people were surveyed with a margin of error +- 3.2%
Not the method of the OP.Poll percentages can not be directly linked to actual seat numbers. V flawed method
No, they can't. But they can be analysed on a constituency by constituency basis, with weighted biases per previous party support (and inter constituency party split) to give a decent estimate of how things would pan out, assuming all other things remain equal.Poll percentages can not be directly linked to actual seat numbers. V flawed method
Gavan Reilly tweeted that the poll gave them 2%?You would think so, but that's on the 1% attributed to them in this poll. It gets a bit fuzzy in the lower numbers unless the %ages have at least one decimals. 1% could equally be 1.49% rounded down.
this is true. But that's not what was done a couple of pages backNo, they can't. But they can be analysed on a constituency by constituency basis, with weighted biases per previous party support (and inter constituency party split) to give a decent estimate of how things would pan out, assuming all other things remain equal.
I'm aware. Was referring to Hollandia's commentNot the method of the OP.
Which post are you referring to? Because if it's mine, that's precisely what I have done.this is true. But that's not what was done a couple of pages back
Yep, you're right - 2%, but the point stands - it could equally be 2.49% rounded. This can be the difference in being in the running or not.Gavan Reilly tweeted that the poll gave them 2%?
Where, pls?This thread is carrying on elsewhere...just saying.
Statsman started a simuler thread on Irish PoliticsonlineWhere, pls?
Interesting thread
Thanks to all taking part
The same two as currently?SDs will have 2 minimum.