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Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind

Round tower

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Feb 9, 2011
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Now the Locals and European elections are over, can any one see a different predictions on the different consticuencies and results.
I have alsways said that FG has a chance of 3 seats in Mayo, and if the results of the locals bear up in the GE, it looks a possibility.
FG is now the biggest party in Mayo CC with 12, FF 11, Indps. 6 and SF 1.
In the Ballina area FG had around 35% to FF 33%. Indp. councillor Duffy was the big winner here with around 20%, it is hard to know who he took the votes off most but it would have being the 2 FG candidates Harkin and Munnelly who had always done well in Ballina.
FG took 4 seats in the Claremorris aea, the other big story of the elections was the collapse of the SF vote, going from 3 seats to 1 and their other candidates doing very badly.
If Duffy was to run in the GE he could a surprise, probably not enough to win a seat but would take votes off Dara and Micheal, McHugh who had a great EL would not do as well ina GE in a mainly rural consticuencey.
So FG 3, FF 1
 


crossman

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Feb 16, 2011
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Dublin South West may well now have a Green seat (Priestly?) but at whose expense? Not FF, SF or Paul Murphy so either FG (Brophy) or Zappone. FG got no council seat in a few Tallaght areas so Brophy could be vulnerable but my money is on Zappone losing if Greens are strong.
 

General Urko

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Good initial research. I think FG Max is way over represented as is the Shinners.
The Green imbeciles could return a record 7 or 8 and I wonder are they more likely to get FG seats? Some Aul Labour grandees will be retiring.
My own Galway West is qluite likely to return 2 Ef Effers next time and the Shinners will remain at zero there
Eff Eff may be slightly the bigger party ahead of it's Troika Party Buddy!
 

Hitchcock

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Dublin South West may well now have a Green seat (Priestly?) but at whose expense? Not FF, SF or Paul Murphy so either FG (Brophy) or Zappone. FG got no council seat in a few Tallaght areas so Brophy could be vulnerable but my money is on Zappone losing if Greens are strong.
Zappone may not stand again, Sinn Fein may be vulnerable too, not sure about Murphy - there's serious problems in the SP and Murphy is a little isolated, he wanted to run for Europe but was prevented so I wonder is it nailed on he'll stand?
 

PBP voter

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I honestly can't see FF not being the biggest party.

I'm going with the following.

FF 55
FG 51
SF 14
Lab 6
PBP Sol 3
Green 5
SD 2

Others 24
 

crossman

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Zappone may not stand again, Sinn Fein may be vulnerable too, not sure about Murphy - there's serious problems in the SP and Murphy is a little isolated, he wanted to run for Europe but was prevented so I wonder is it nailed on he'll stand?
You could be right about Murphy. Hardly to be seen in local campaign. His party ran two candidates in Tallaght Central and got just one in.
 

General Urko

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I honestly can't see FF not being the biggest party.

I'm going with the following.

FF 55
FG 51
SF 14
Lab 6
PBP Sol 3
Green 5
SD 2

Others 24
Is there 160 seats up for grabs @ next year's GE?
You are probably not far off, indos perhaps overestimated, Shinners and Blueshirts underestimated!
But that result really would set the pussy among the pigeons.
A logical outcome of such would a formal grand coalition of the two traditional shytebags!
 

PBP voter

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Is there 160 seats up for grabs @ next year's GE?
You are probably not far off, indos perhaps overestimated, Shinners and Blueshirts underestimated!
But that result really would set the pussy among the pigeons.
A logical outcome of such would a formal grand coalition of the two traditional shytebags!
Yep it's 160 seats this time
 

Round tower

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Feb 9, 2011
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I honestly can't see FF not being the biggest party.

I'm going with the following.

FF 55
FG 51
SF 14
Lab 6
PBP Sol 3
Green 5
SD 2

Others 24
U are basing on the LE which are normaly on local issues and not national issues.

FG 58
FF 50
SF 15
Lab. 08
SD 02
Sol/PBP 04
Greens 04

Others 19
 

Dame_Enda

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Dec 14, 2011
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Its significant SF held on to its seats in Co.Waterford, possibly in part a protest vote over the perennial hospital controversy. So I'd say David Cullinane will survive.
 

drjimryan2

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Nov 16, 2009
Messages
1,732
dsw has thrown up surprises in the past remember 07 when sf/ira were 1/40 to hold their seat.......

Based on the results of the locals....FF reckon they are sure of one with an outside chance of taking the last.....
 

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