Contagion: Greece>Ireland>Portugal>Spain>Italy>UK>?

Cassandra Syndrome

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It is now common knowledge that there is a potential domino effect of European sovereign debt contagion in roughly the following order:

Greece → Ireland → Portugal → Spain → Italy → UK

While some people have been writing about this for well over a year, many others have joined the party late (there are now over 600,000 hits from a Google search discussing this topic.)

It is also now common knowledge that while Greece and Ireland have relatively small economies, there will be real trouble if the Spanish domino falls.

Iceland has the world’s 112th biggest economy, Ireland the 38th, and Portugal the 36th. In contrast, Spain has the world’s 9th biggest economy, Italy the 7th and the UK the 6th. A failure by one of the latter 3 would be devastating for the world economy.
Greece

The house of cards is coming down.
 
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DeGaulle 2.0

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Ireland (pop 4.4 million) needs to borrow 19 billion next year
Spain (pop 44 million) neads to borrow 44 billion next year

Hmmm
 

an innocent abroad

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actually, I'm bored with all this Bailout crap!...................... DOMINOES ANYBODY?


YES PLEASEEEEEEEEEEE! Let the fun begin!.............. OR IS IT MONOPOLY?
 

Libertarian John

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The UK is the next to fail.

The total unreported debts in the UK is nearly £7.8 trillion pounds or nearly £300,000 for every family. (Source: Tax payer alliance)

Interest is set at a artificially low rate, if interest rates rise then UK government debt will go through the roof, and the government based banks would virtually collapse.

UK inflation is already well above 3%, and with interest well below 2%, any savings you may have is worth less year on year. UK government only option is to increase interest, and print even more money out of thin air resulting a run on the pound.

Of course UK government could cut back, which will be a complete disaster for N-ireland when the public sector makes up over 80+% of the economy.


Fun times ahead, if I was you transfer any savings you have into an off shore account.
 

seabhcan

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The UK is the next to fail.

The total unreported debts in the UK is nearly £7.8 trillion pounds or nearly £300,000 for every family. (Source: Tax payer alliance)

Interest is set at a artificially low rate, if interest rates rise then UK government debt will go through the roof, and the government based banks would virtually collapse.

UK inflation is already well above 3%, and with interest well below 2%, any savings you may have is worth less year on year. UK government only option is to increase interest, and print even more money out of thin air resulting a run on the pound.

Of course UK government could cut back, which will be a complete disaster for N-ireland when the public sector makes up over 80+% of the economy.


Fun times ahead, if I was you transfer any savings you have into an off shore account.
The UK has the ability to borrow in sterling and print sterling. We were never able to do that.
 

eoghanacht

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Greece

The house of cards is coming down.
You nicked my sig!!

We need to withdraw from the euro. The EU are fighting a losing retreat and well they know.

Can't wait til it happens then we can do away with all this FF, IMF ECB nonsense and rebuild the country.
 

an innocent abroad

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Contagion!........................................ WHO GIVES A ************************ ANYMORE! SCORCHED EARTH POLICY! BUT IF I SEE ANYBODY EMPLOYED BY THE STATE DRINKING, EATING IN RESTURANTS OR PUBS. MY QUESTION WILL BE " ARE YOU BUYING THIS OR AM I PAYING FOR IT!" EVERYBODY AND EVERYTHING WILL BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE. FIRST CLASS LOUNGES, ARE YOU PAYING FOR THIS? THAT IS NOW MY MANTRA. WHO IS PAYING FOR WHAT? REMEMBER O.J. GOT AWAY WITH A CRIME, BUT PEOPLE JUST WALKED OUT SILENTLY, AND IN THE END BUSINESS WOULD NOT TOLERATE HIM! THAT IS OUR POLITICAL CLASS. WE DO NOT TOLERATE OUR POLITICAL CLASS LIVING LIKE LORDS!
 

Sariel

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The UK is the next to fail.

The total unreported debts in the UK is nearly £7.8 trillion pounds or nearly £300,000 for every family. (Source: Tax payer alliance)

Interest is set at a artificially low rate, if interest rates rise then UK government debt will go through the roof, and the government based banks would virtually collapse.

UK inflation is already well above 3%, and with interest well below 2%, any savings you may have is worth less year on year. UK government only option is to increase interest, and print even more money out of thin air resulting a run on the pound.

Of course UK government could cut back, which will be a complete disaster for N-ireland when the public sector makes up over 80+% of the economy.


Fun times ahead, if I was you transfer any savings you have into an off shore account.
Default Risk for the UK is zero. They can exercise complete control over all interest rates if they want.
 

shutuplaura

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Contagion!........................................ WHO GIVES A ************************ ANYMORE! SCORCHED EARTH POLICY! BUT IF I SEE ANYBODY EMPLOYED BY THE STATE DRINKING, EATING IN RESTURANTS OR PUBS. MY QUESTION WILL BE " ARE YOU BUYING THIS OR AM I PAYING FOR IT!" EVERYBODY AND EVERYTHING WILL BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE. FIRST CLASS LOUNGES, ARE YOU PAYING FOR THIS? THAT IS NOW MY MANTRA. WHO IS PAYING FOR WHAT? REMEMBER O.J. GOT AWAY WITH A CRIME, BUT PEOPLE JUST WALKED OUT SILENTLY, AND IN THE END BUSINESS WOULD NOT TOLERATE HIM! THAT IS OUR POLITICAL CLASS. WE DO NOT TOLERATE OUR POLITICAL CLASS LIVING LIKE LORDS!
Yeah you should do that, and at the top of your voice so people know you have a serious point to make and are not a crazy.
 

Tea Party Patriot

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Greece

The house of cards is coming down.
It is now common knowledge that there is a potential domino effect of European sovereign debt contagion in roughly the following order:

Greece → Ireland → Portugal → Spain → Italy → UK

While some people have been writing about this for well over a year, many others have joined the party late (there are now over 600,000 hits from a Google search discussing this topic.)

It is also now common knowledge that while Greece and Ireland have relatively small economies, there will be real trouble if the Spanish domino falls.

Iceland has the world’s 112th biggest economy, Ireland the 38th, and Portugal the 36th. In contrast, Spain has the world’s 9th biggest economy, Italy the 7th and the UK the 6th. A failure by one of the latter 3 would be devastating for the world economy.

You left out France, if the Itallian economy goes wallop then the French exposure is about 20% of French GDP.

Other than that your post is spot on :)
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Did one of your predictions ever come true ?
Yes, quite a few. I don't listen to traitors. Now p1ss off you sycophantic gombeen muppet.
 

Tea Party Patriot

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Did one of your predictions ever come true ?
Yes, I think you missed CS's post on the Endgame for Ireland is less that 1 week away, almost exactly 1 week before the IMF came trundling into Dublin airport.
 


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