Cork City Council Elections 2019

locke

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Seeing that I couldn't find one elsewhere, I thought it might be good to get a thread started in relation to next year's local elections in Cork City.

For sitting politicians, the election promises to be barbaric.

There are no extra seats, but lots of extra population. This should have increased to over 40 councilors to match the level elsewhere in the country, but the only real impact this has is on Seanad voting.

There are several county councilors who will move into the city.

For the LEA where I live (SE), it's also moving from seven to six seats, providing an additional challenge for the sitting councilors. My gut feeling is that there will be a geographical split between the current city areas and the areas coming in from the county, with few votes crossing the boundary. People in each area aren't familiar with the candidates from the other side (except Lorna Bogue, who ran in the General Election, from the Greens and Peter Horgan from Labour who seems to be making a big effort to work both sides) The spilt will probably be 4-2, but may be 3-3.

In terms of which councilors may run here

City Councilors who will almost certainly run in SE
- Des Cahill (FG)
- Laura McGonigle (FG)
- Terry Shannon (FF)
- Nicholas O'Keeffe (FF)
- Chris O'Leary (SF)

City Councilors who may run in SE
- Kieran McCarthy (Ind) - Is from just on the the South Central side of the new boundary line, but took his strongest votes around Ballinlough and Blackrock
- Shane O'Shea (SF) - Lives a long way into South Central now, but there will be two sitting SF councilors there, so not a happy place to run


County Councilors who will almost certainly run in SE
- Deirdre Forde (FG)

County Councilors who may run in SE
- Joe Harris (Soc Dems) - Took a lot of his vote from Grange and Donnybrook, but Grange is now in SC, along with half of Donnybrook
- Mary Rose Desmond (FF) - Really have no clue about her other than that her bio suggests she is from the Douglas area

Other known candidates
- Peter Horgan (Lab)
- Lorna Bogue (Greens)

None of them seem old enough to be seeking retirement on age grounds and you'd think if they wanted to go for other reasons, they would have handed over their seat to create a new party incumbent by now.

I really can't call any of them safe. SF have a seat and O'Leary is easily going to be the known name in the party, so looks the safest. Forde is the only known candidate from the Maryborough/Rochestown area, which has enough votes to return 2+ councilors and you'd think that FG should get two in the LEA, with one from that area.

Gut feeling says at least 2 FG, 1 FF and 1 SF, with the remaining two seats between McCarthy (Ind), second FF, Greens and Labour.

Having gained a very middle-class area and lost the estates around Glencurrig, SF don't seem in a good place for a second.

I can't see Harris from the Soc Dems retaining even if he goes in SC instead. The boundary review has meant his vote-getting area is split in two.

FF need a good candidate from Maryborough/Rochestown to take a second. One of Shannon and O'Keeffe will lose out.

Obviously there is the proviso that if the General Election happens before the Locals or takes place on the same day, it could change everything.
 


cricket

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Disgraceful that despite the increase in the electorate there are no extra seats.
Don't know much about the current county councillors, but most city councillors are simply brutal. Publicity whores who, thankfully, have very little power.
 

locke

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I think there's only four real offenders in publicity whoredom - Tim Brosnan, Terry Shannon, Des Cahill and Ken O'Flynn

However, there's a whole further set where I don't see any broader vision than holding a few clinics and doing some very mundane stuff - Lil O'Donnell, Kenneth Collins, Marion O'Sullivan, Shane O'Shea, Fiona Kerins, Paudie Dinneen, Mary Shields, PJ Hourican, Fergal Dennehy.

That's a big collection, stuffed with councilors from all parties and Indpendents.

Having the higher electorate per councilor will at least mean that it will be harder to get elected through that deadwood approach.

Like you I can't say I know much about the county councilors. I'm presuming Marcia D'Alton will stay in the county as she's based in Passage (although originally from Douglas). She would have been the only one from Ballincollig/Carrigaline who I would have liked to have seen on the city council.

The only other one I know is Bob Ryan from Blarney/Macroom, but that was from his less than stellar tenure as Páirc Uí Chaoímh's operations manager rather than anything achieved on the council.
 

cricket

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Have been at city council meetings where the alphabets are simply a disgrace. They behave like kids on Christmas eve, unable to behave rationally but full of giddiness.
 

making waves

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Have been at city council meetings where the alphabets are simply a disgrace. They behave like kids on Christmas eve, unable to behave rationally but full of giddiness.
Shock, horror, - Solidarity refuse to play the you step in and I step out game with the rest.

Its called having some principles - something your darling LP know nothing about.
 

locke

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Showboating in the council chamber is what it is and rarely gets noticed by the general public.

To be honest, what bugs me more with council meetings is when councilors propose a vote on some national or international issue where the city council has no power. That is purely done to signal credentials and should be prohibited so that focus can remain on city issues.

The ones I mentioned seem to have an ability to get themselves reported prominently in local newspapers.

In all honesty, I would say that at least Cahill and O'Flynn have some ideas, even though I disagree with them far more frequently than I agree with them. It is something of a step up on having nothing to bring to the table at all.
 

cricket

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Shock, horror, - Solidarity refuse to play the you step in and I step out game with the rest.

Its called having some principles - something your darling LP know nothing about.
The alphabets "game" includes Lady Coppinger's proposal to nationalise Dunnes Stores :speechless:
 

locke

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Joe Harris confirmed to be running for the Social Democrats in South-East.

I do think South Central may have suited him better, but he was screwed by the new boundaries, whichever way he went.
 

locke

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John Buttimer is not going to run for FG in the next elections.

On paper, that looks like a big loss for FG as he was a huge vote winner, even more so than his brother had been.

In practice, it may make FG's vote management task a little easier.
 

locke

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McGonigle not standing in SE. FG have selected Cahill and Forde as their candidates.

Cahill’s seat is nailed in now as is Forde’s.
 

locke

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North Central has been abolished, so it's now the North-West LEA.

North-West is shaping up to be even worse than South-East.

Based on their stated address, it looks like every councilor from the current North-West and North Central LEAs, in addition to two county councilors are based in the area. That's 4 FF, 3 SF, 3 AAA (or whatever the current banner is) and 1 Independent at the last election. However, we know that Marion O'Sullivan of AAA isn't going to run and Lil O'Donnell of the same party is now an Independent.

To complicate things further, given the nature of some of the areas added around Carrigrohane, Inniscara, Cloghroe, Clogheen, Kerry Pike etc., it's hard to imagine FG failing to win a seat in a six-seater next time out.

It's going to be bruising.

Gut feeling is that O'Flynn of FF will be OK, as he has one foot in Blarney and one in the city. Sinn Fein will win at least two seats; you'd have to guess that Collins would be the most likely to lose out as Nugent and Gould are both very strong performers. FF will take a second seat, with Tony Fitzgerald the most likely. Geography suggests that Boylan of FG is the more likely to be elected, although O'Leary has name recognition as a former GE candidate (should O'Leary get elected, it could have a major impact on which 2nd FF councilor gets elected). Fiona Ryan is probably good to retain her seat for her personal performance as a councilor, regardless of how her party does.

All that pre-supposes none of the above get in at a General Election before the locals, and O'Leary, Fitzgerald and O'Flynn could all be running.
 

cricket

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North Central has been abolished, so it's now the North-West LEA.

North-West is shaping up to be even worse than South-East.

Based on their stated address, it looks like every councilor from the current North-West and North Central LEAs, in addition to two county councilors are based in the area. That's 4 FF, 3 SF, 3 AAA (or whatever the current banner is) and 1 Independent at the last election. However, we know that Marion O'Sullivan of AAA isn't going to run and Lil O'Donnell of the same party is now an Independent.

To complicate things further, given the nature of some of the areas added around Carrigrohane, Inniscara, Cloghroe, Clogheen, Kerry Pike etc., it's hard to imagine FG failing to win a seat in a six-seater next time out.

It's going to be bruising.

Gut feeling is that O'Flynn of FF will be OK, as he has one foot in Blarney and one in the city. Sinn Fein will win at least two seats; you'd have to guess that Collins would be the most likely to lose out as Nugent and Gould are both very strong performers. FF will take a second seat, with Tony Fitzgerald the most likely. Geography suggests that Boylan of FG is the more likely to be elected, although O'Leary has name recognition as a former GE candidate (should O'Leary get elected, it could have a major impact on which 2nd FF councilor gets elected). Fiona Ryan is probably good to retain her seat for her personal performance as a councilor, regardless of how her party does.

All that pre-supposes none of the above get in at a General Election before the locals, and O'Leary, Fitzgerald and O'Flynn could all be running.
Had forgotten about the effect of the city expansion. From what I know, travellers generally don't register to vote so I give him no chance whatsoever.
 

locke

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I'd be with you on that.

Even if every Traveler was registered and voted for him, he would need several thousand votes from the settled community. The new LEA is made up from bits taken from Blarney-Macroom, City NW, City NC and a tiny portion of Cóbh; these had a combined total of 750 Travelers at the last census, and the overall population of the LEA is only a third of the total of those four combined. Without a party backing him and without the usual background in sports clubs and local community work etc., it's hard to see how he could achieve that.
 

peader odonnell

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Joe Harris confirmed to be running for the Social Democrats in South-East.

I do think South Central may have suited him better, but he was screwed by the new boundaries, whichever way he went.
Is he related to Eoin Harris?
 

locke

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I'm not certain, but he may be a younger brother. Harris isn't that uncommon a surname around Cork, especially the city, though.
 


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