Cork City Council Elections 2019

locke

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More retirements

Neither Mary Shields (SW) or Tom O'Driscoll (SC) of Fíanna Fáil will be running.

I must admit that, even though I'm never FF's biggest fan, I always quite liked Tom O'Driscoll. I won't particularly miss Shields though.

O Donnabháin (FF) and Canty (FG) from the Ballincollig-Carrigaline LEA are confirmed to be running in South-West.

With seven seats, South-West is going to be one of the less competitive areas (although FG seem to be stacking it with 4 candidates). Sinn Fein will be eying it up as a potential gain, with Henry Cremin the only proven vote-getter standing in the area.
 


locke

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And another retirement...

Stephen Cunningham of Sinn Féin not standing in the NE ward.

While there seems to be a game of musical chairs going on in Sinn Féin as a result of the boundary redraw, I would presume that this is for personal reasons as one of their candidates in the LEA - Mandy O'Leary-Hegarty (Chris O'Leary's daughter) - is not previously elected, so there should have been space on the ticket for him.

Also announced is that Mick Nugent from the current NW LEA is moving to NE. Apparently, he is originally from Ballyvolane and has a stake in the area. That is good news for Ken Collins in NW, who had looked likely to lose out, with Gould and Nugent also sitting candidates for Sinn Féin in that LEA and it looking very hard for them to win three of six.

Bizarrely all this has been announced before the official selection convention on Thursday, doing nothing to dispel the idea that Sinn Féin selection conventions are just rubber-stampings of centrally made decisions.

In other news, as expected, Fiona Kerins and Eoghan Jeffers to be the party candidates in South Central.
 

cricket

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Heard just before Christmas that Joe O'Callaghan, ex Labour, ex Lord Mayor is standing in the Blarney area, don't know if that's north central or north west. He was also in FG but don't know if he is now independent.
An out and out bluffer.
 

automaticforthepeople

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Peter Horgan comes across in the media as very capable and would make a good councillor. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins a seat.
 

the secretary

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Showboating in the council chamber is what it is and rarely gets noticed by the general public.

To be honest, what bugs me more with council meetings is when councilors propose a vote on some national or international issue where the city council has no power. That is purely done to signal credentials and should be prohibited so that focus can remain on city issues.

The ones I mentioned seem to have an ability to get themselves reported prominently in local newspapers.

In all honesty, I would say that at least Cahill and O'Flynn have some ideas, even though I disagree with them far more frequently than I agree with them. It is something of a step up on having nothing to bring to the table at all.
Fully agree.
Its a local council, not a national parliament.
These motions are only publicity stunts and should be prohibited.
 

locke

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Heard just before Christmas that Joe O'Callaghan, ex Labour, ex Lord Mayor is standing in the Blarney area, don't know if that's north central or north west. He was also in FG but don't know if he is now independent.
An out and out bluffer.
Blarney is North-West.

You'd kind of think that O'Callaghan is yesterday's news, but he is a smell that won't go away.

He served for 24 years on the council between 1985 and 2014, despite only winning a seat twice. Somehow whenever a cooption came up, he was the man to get it.

Peter Horgan comes across in the media as very capable and would make a good councillor. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins a seat.
He comes across well and The Echo are certainly giving him a high profile.

The challenge will be where does he get the seat from.

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, I think FG have two, SF one and FF at least one. I'm starting to think that Kieran McCarthy (Ind) will also be good for a seat. So he will have to prevent FF from taking a second seat.

FF have a problem in SE though as O'Keeffe and Shannon won't both win seats due to their location. They will need to get their second seat from the former county council area, but both O'Keeffe and Shannon won't give deference there because they know their neck is on the line. They could prevent the party from taking two. But this is Micheál Martin's home ground, so that is a major advantage for FF.

As an aside, I think Lorna Bogue of the Greens is performing much better than she did in the General Election. I don't thin she will get elected, but if she can get out the Green vote, it could help Horgan.
 

locke

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This one is a big surprise as he’s relatively young and seemed ambitious, but Cllr Nicholas O’Keeffe of FF has decided to step aside in the SE LEA.

Unfortunately, it seems to solidify Shannon’s seat. As many will know he’s one of my least favorite councilors.

It complicates matters for FF to win a second seat as Shannon has been a declining vote-getter and there’s no clear big personality for the county side of the LEA. Given their general performance, they really should win two, but the candidate line up is looking weak.
Is
 

locke

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In another surprise, Ken O'Flynn is to run in the North-East LEA.

It does save FF from a situation where they had 4 sitting councilors in NW and 1 in NE after the redraw, but I would have felt that John Sheehan was better placed to contest NE, having been a Blackpool based GP, with a substantial number of patients resident in NE.

Of course, O'Flynn never does anything that doesn't benefit himself. And while he'll find the contest tougher there, it will boost his presence across the northside, ahead of a rumoured Dáil bid in the next General Election.
 

cricket

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In another surprise, Ken O'Flynn is to run in the North-East LEA.

It does save FF from a situation where they had 4 sitting councilors in NW and 1 in NE after the redraw, but I would have felt that John Sheehan was better placed to contest NE, having been a Blackpool based GP, with a substantial number of patients resident in NE.

Of course, O'Flynn never does anything that doesn't benefit himself. And while he'll find the contest tougher there, it will boost his presence across the northside, ahead of a rumoured Dáil bid in the next General Election.
Tim Brosnan must be delighted !
 

locke

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Terry Shannon and Mary-Rose Desmond confirmed as FF candidates for the SE LEA.

Someone in FF may know if anyone can be added as two candidates in a six seat LEA seems unambitious considering it's the stomping ground of the party leader.

These are two weak candidates though, so neither would welcome another party candidate.

One thing to note is that both are in the Martin camp rather than the McGrath camp in terms of the local FF organization (Shannon has been Martin's election agent since forever and Desmond was a parliamentary assistant). I don't know if that will unduly impact campaigning. It would certainly seem to have more sway over Desmond's chances as she will be looking for votes in areas where McGrath is strong. It's surprising that McGrath didn't get anyone on the ticket as he has generally seen Rochestown and Maryborough Hill as part of his territory.
 

locke

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Ciara Kennedy selected as Labour candidate in SW

Considering it’s the sole seven seater in the city and that they once held two in the old SW LEA, it must be their biggest target
 

cricket

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Heard today that Dan Boyle, greens and former TD, is making a mighty effort in Cork SC with many feet on the street.
 

locke

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If feet on the street count for anything, the Greens are in for a decent election.

I think they have a chance in South Central and North East.

Boyle has the advantage of name recognition throughout the LEA, which none of the sitting councilors have. There’s also quite a chunk of the SE LEA that has been moved into SC and Boyle is a former councilor for that area.

There’s one for SF and FF in the LEA. Probably one for FG considering the amount of population in Grange/Frankfield brought in, after that it’s a free for all. SF and FF have a possible 2nd. Mick Finn could well/should take a seat as an Indo. The Greens and Labour have decent shots. I can’t see Dineen holding though.
 

locke

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Some interesting happenings at the FF selection convention for NW

The biggest news was that Lord Mayor Tony Fitzgerald didn't get selected for the FF ticket.

Also County Cllr Bob Ryan withdrew his name from the contest, opting to contest the Macroom county district instead.

What all this means is that FF have two candidates from the city area (Cllr John Sheehan and Seán Coleman) and nobody from the Blarney area. While there was probably always going to be a third candidate added to the ticket, they can now have Fitzgerald, a Blarney candidate or a four candidate strategy. Any of those possibilities scuppers the chances of a third seat in the LEA.

The big beneficiary is Sinn Féin's new candidate, John Stanton and Fine Gael's Damian Boylan, as the only two credible candidates in the county area (which has the population to elect two councilors).

Fine Gael may be thinking of the outside possibility of winning two seats, where they previously would have settled for one.

I'm not sure the two sitting Sinn Féin TDs will entirely welcome a strengthening for their third candidate. Three Sinn Féin councilors would be a stretch.

Labour don't have a candidate yet and the absence of county-based candidates may tempt them that way. Regardless, while I can see them returning to the council, I don't think this is the LEA to deliver.

The FF selection convention for North-East was a lot less dramatic with Tim Brosnan, Ken O'Flynn and Martin Dorgan selected. I wonder if O'Flynn regrets the decision to go in North-East now, considering how things in North-West panned out.
 

cricket

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Some interesting happenings at the FF selection convention for NW

The biggest news was that Lord Mayor Tony Fitzgerald didn't get selected for the FF ticket.

Also County Cllr Bob Ryan withdrew his name from the contest, opting to contest the Macroom county district instead.

What all this means is that FF have two candidates from the city area (Cllr John Sheehan and Seán Coleman) and nobody from the Blarney area. While there was probably always going to be a third candidate added to the ticket, they can now have Fitzgerald, a Blarney candidate or a four candidate strategy. Any of those possibilities scuppers the chances of a third seat in the LEA.

The big beneficiary is Sinn Féin's new candidate, John Stanton and Fine Gael's Damian Boylan, as the only two credible candidates in the county area (which has the population to elect two councilors).

Fine Gael may be thinking of the outside possibility of winning two seats, where they previously would have settled for one.

I'm not sure the two sitting Sinn Féin TDs will entirely welcome a strengthening for their third candidate. Three Sinn Féin councilors would be a stretch.

Labour don't have a candidate yet and the absence of county-based candidates may tempt them that way. Regardless, while I can see them returning to the council, I don't think this is the LEA to deliver.

The FF selection convention for North-East was a lot less dramatic with Tim Brosnan, Ken O'Flynn and Martin Dorgan selected. I wonder if O'Flynn regrets the decision to go in North-East now, considering how things in North-West panned out.
Bit of a surprise in CNW. Fitzgerald was being hyped up as a possible Dail candidate not that long ago.
 

locke

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I wonder was he seen as safe, leading to tactical voting by his supporters.

Members immediately backed a motion to request he be added by the national committee.

One way or another it represents a serious problem for Fianna Fáil. Where once they seemed guaranteed two seats, with a chance of three, they now have to fight for two and are only 50/50 to achieve it.
 

locke

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In the period when the site was on vacation, Fitzgerald got added to the FF ticket.

My analysis stands that this costs them any chance of a third seat and potentially even jeopardises the second. There's only about 2,000 FF votes in the former city portion of the LEA and probably similar votes that will stick with the party regardless of candidate in the former county area. Without picking up local votes in the county area, they will have to ditch one of the candidates to manage that vote to two seats.
 

locke

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Aontú have found a couple of candidates for the election. Joanne Murphy in SW and Anna Daly in SE.

Now, I'm not sure exactly who Aontú are targeting, but these seem like odd LEAs. If it's the Sinn Féin vote, these are likely to be Sinn Féin's weakest LEA. If it is an anti-abortion vote, these are LEAs full of middle-class liberals; SW also has quite a young age profile. Anyway, I'm not sure anyone votes based on abortion in a General Election, never mind a local election.
 


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