Cork City Council Elections 2019

locke

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Joe O'Callaghan, that bad smell that won't go away, has quit Fine Gael to run as an Independent in NW.

For those not aware of Joe's record, he got elected in 1991 and managed to serve 13 years on the council, without winning another election.

8 years came from the extra long period without elections between 1991 and 1999. He lost his seat in 1999 and stood again in 2004 but again didn't win. In 2004, he was co-opted to replace Colm Burke, who had himself taken Simon Coveney's place in the European Parliament. In 2009, the electorate said "we've really had enough of this man" and failed to elect him again. But Joe wasn't done. In 2011, Independent councilor Dave McCarthy died and in Cork, while party seats stay in the party, the tradition is that Independent seats go to the highest placed non-elected candidate. And that was Joe... So back in the council from 2011 to 2014, when the electorate gave him a whopping 280 votes and he lost his seat again.

Joe is a principled man and one of those principles is that he will attach himself to whatever banner he thinks is best to get him back on the council. He has run for Labour, then Independent, then Fine Gael and now he's back to being Independent again.

I half expect him to come 6th in the NW LEA and then find a way of getting co-opted back again.
 


SummerBoy

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Looks like theres little interest in Cork city council elections. Let's start predictions. Dont know the south side so heres my call on the north side.
North EAST, 2 ff, Ifg, Isf, Iwp AND 1iND.
North West, 2 FF, 2SF, 1FG and 1 Solidarity.
 

locke

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I can only really comment on SE and even then I’m not sure how it will pan out.

At least 1 FF and 1 FG are certain. I think 1 SF is very highly likely and I think Kieran McCarthy the Independent will retain.

FF and FG have poor candidates though and that will hit them getting second seats. And they are battling for these with Labour, the Greens and the Soc Dems. Gut feeling is one will go to a big party and one to a small party.

Soc Dems have the advantage of a sitting councilor, but he got badly hit. by boundary redraws. Labour have been very active.

If I had to call, I’d reckon

FF 2 FG 1 SF 1 Ind 1 Lab 1
 

SummerBoy

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" All Changed, changed utterly ". O'Callaghan outbursts all day a masterstroke, whether you like him or not!
 

SummerBoy

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Can't believe there is no interest whatever in Cork City Local Elections here. Has Locke passed on?
 

locke

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I've been away on holiday. Nothing more than that. So I don't have any great insight into what's happening. One person I know in FG said that people are questioning individual votes of councilors (e.g. why did they vote against pedestrianisation of The Marina?) more than normal and puts it down to social media. Personally, I hope it's true as councilors should be judged on their record more than anything else.
 

locke

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BTW I think O'Callaghan's dog-whistling won't do any good at all. He's tried it previously to no avail and I see no reason why anything has changed that will make it different this time.
 

SummerBoy

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ok Locke, not sure there. A lot of people muttering support for him. I won't be voting him but I wonder, I wonder? The difference may be he's gone from the Blueshirts, people have short or no memories, believe me !
 

locke

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I'll grant you that there are some who will see the work Independent and vote for and transfer to, without considering what the Independent stands for.

But O'Callaghan has a big problem. He's yesterday's man. Nobody under 40 will remember him and nobody under 55 will have voted for him. He hasn't been active in the community or prominent since he left the council (see Peter Horgan of Labour, Julie O'Leary of FG and Oliver Moran of The Greens for a model of how a candidate can push themselves when not on the council). Few voters will be swayed by one comment.
 

locke

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Looking at the national polling, if it applies to Cork...

- FF will likely lose seats
- FG will be at the status quo or marginally better.
- SF will lose seats
- The Greens will gain
- Any Labour gains will be through transfers and weaker opponents
- SOL/PBP will lose seats

I suspect SF only have one per LEA, except maybe NW where they should still be OK for two. That said, their seats in SE and SW are not guaranteed.

The Greens look good for gains. Best chances are South Central and North East, with South-East also being a reasonable possibility.

FG only need one per LEA to match their current total. With more suburban areas in, they should manage that and could take two in SW (likely) and SE (about 50/50)
 

locke

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Suspect there’s a geographical skew in some
Of the boxes open. Candidates based at the Blackrock side of SE (O’Leary, Cahill, Shannon, Ó Cadhla) are doing much better than the Douglas side. I’d expect Forde, Desmond and Harris to rise on later tallies.
 

locke

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Here’s a live link to the south side tallies


SW looks like a free for all. There are three [Dennehy (FF), Finn (Grn) and Moloney (Ind)] who look safe, one [Cremin (SF)] who looks highly likely and there are enough FG votes around to guarantee one, but the last two seats could still go many ways.

Despite the continuing geographic slew to Blackrock in SE, I think we can say Shannon (FF), Cahill (FG), McCarthy (Ind) and Bogue (Grn) are safe. Two from O’Leary(SF), Forde (FG), Desmond (FF) and Horgan (Lab) for the last two. O’Leary seems in poll position, but that Blackrock skew may still catch him; the fact he doesn’t have a party running mate from Douglas means it’s not as bad for him as the FG and FF candidates. I have a feeling that whoever gets ahead between Horgan and Forde will get elected.

In SC, Boyle (Grn), Martin (FF), Finn (Ind) and O’Callaghan (FG) look ok. SF look at risk of trying to split a vote that wasn’t big enough to be split, but one of their candidates should make it. Boyle (FF) also looking good, but enough left and Independent votes below that Dinneen (Ind) and Field (Lab) can’t quite be ruled out.
 

locke

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And after I started feeling a bit more comfortable about geography, there looks to have been a load of Ballincollig boxes in SW and Douglas boxes in SE.

Doesn’t massively change anything, but Canty looks a favourite for FG in SW. Cremin not looking so secure for SF. Possibility of 2nd FG is back on the cards.

Hugely benefits Desmond in SE, leaving maybe one seat between Forde, Horgan and O’Leary. Horgan has drifted a little out of that battle.
 

locke

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Final result looks like being

Fianna Fáil 8 (-2)
Fine Gael 7 (+2)
Sinn Féin 4 (-4)
Labour 1 (+1)
Green Party 4 (+4)
Workers Party 1 (-)
Non-party 5 (+1)
Solidarity- PBP 1 (-2)

Changes are based on previous election, not affiliation at the end of the last council.

There's a recount in SC that could see a non-party seat switch to Sinn Féin.

Awful result for Sinn Féin, no other way of seeing that. Boundary changes didn't help though, with substantially more middle-class areas coming in. still, failing to wing in the LEAs covering Mayfield and Mahon must be disappointing.

I had seen gains for the Greens. I had thought they would pick up in SC and NE, and had a chance in SE. Certainly didn't see them coming back with 4.

FG and FF are mirror images of each other. No great change in their vote, but FG got their strategy right, having got it wrong in 2014, while FF could have picked up extra seats in NW and NE if they had got things right.

Labour will be happy to be back, but maybe a little disappointed. They should have been on for a gain in SE, but that was killed by a late national swing to the Greens; even if the two candidates had polled exactly the same as each other, there weren't enough centre-left votes in SE to elect Labour and the Greens.
 

locke

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Notable in that is that FF and FG don't quite have enough to go back to the old stitch up.

What do they do? Ask Labour into the tent? Allow D'hondt to continue (FF and FG councilors will feel aggrieved)? Look for an Independent (Kieran McCarthy, Mick Finn or Thomas Moloney would all make a deal, although they could hardly offer Finn the Mayorship)?
 


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