Cork East: call the next GE results

statsman

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A thread for informed discussion of the likely result, with the aim of predicting the final GE result on the main thread here:

Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind

In 2016, Cork East returned 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab and 1 SF. Will there be change this time out?

Here's the 2016 first prefs count:

  • O'Keeffe, Kevin elected 15.65% FG
  • Stanton, David elected 13.58% FF
  • Sherlock, Seán elected 13.16% Lab
  • Buckley, Pat elected 10.15% SF
  • Ahern, Barbara not-elected 8.70% FF
  • McCarthy, Noel eliminated 8.34% FG
  • Barry, Tom eliminated 6.55% FG
  • Bradford, Paul eliminated 6.14% Renua
  • Linehan Foley, Mary eliminated 5.96% Indo
  • Leonardi Roche, Ciara eliminated 3.79% SP
  • McCarthy, Kieran eliminated 3.10% Indo
  • Curtin, Ken eliminated 2.62% SD
  • Harty, Natasha eliminated 1.53% Green
  • Bullman, Paddy eliminated 0.46% Indo
  • Cannon, Ross eliminated 0.28% Indo
 
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Casablanca

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In short it's hard to see any change with this one. FG will be hoping to take Sean Sherlocks Lab seat with Cllr Pa O'Driscoll but the SD candidate Cllr June Murphy's transfers should see him over the line. The FF and SF seats are safe.

Prediction: No change
 

locke

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I can't see Sherlock in trouble. He had 1,600 votes over Sinn Fein last time out and Labour should be more transfer-friendly next election, even if they don't do much nationally with their first preference votes. He ended up being the first elected.

There's also the issue of North Cork v East Cork. For the last 3 decades, it's pretty much operated as two 2-seaters. The 1989 election was the last time there were three TDs from one side of the constituency and that was from North Cork. In the intervening period, population growth has been far higher in East Cork.

That is a problem for FG as they need to take out one of the two North Cork TDs to gain in those circumstances and there is no sign of them doing that. It might be no harm to pursue a four candidate strategy with a candidate from Cobh or Youghal added just in case.

It should be FG v FF v SF for the last seat, and on FG's current polling, you'd think they were favourites, but that would mean three North Cork TDs unless they ran a 2nd southern candidate and miraculously managed to pull off two at that end.

Sinn Féin's problem is a bad candidate, but as he's a sitting TD, there's not much they can do. With the potential line up to replace him, I think he will probably just retain his seat.

FF need to find a Youghal or Cobh based candidate. With Midleton having two sitting TDs it's overcrowded to run Barbara Aherne again, but there are votes to be had for a serious candidate in those two towns.
 

statsman

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So, no change here? Lab hold?
 

hollandia

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So, no change here? Lab hold?
Dunno. Sherlock looking vulnerable, unless labour get themselves back up to around 7%. On current polling, he's only making half a quota. A half decent SD candidate may splice that further.
 

statsman

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Dunno. Sherlock looking vulnerable, unless labour get themselves back up to around 7%. On current polling, he's only making half a quota. A half decent SD candidate may splice that further.
As far as I know, the SDs have no great ambitions here. I think local factors favour Sherlock.
 

hollandia

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As far as I know, the SDs have no great ambitions here. I think local factors favour Sherlock.
Possibly, but Labour still need to up their game to make a seat here viable. Mind you, a spreadsheet doesn't take into account local factors.
 

statsman

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Possibly, but Labour still need to up their game to make a seat here viable. Mind you, a spreadsheet doesn't take into account local factors.
Which is the basis for this little project, really.
 

hollandia

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Which is the basis for this little project, really.
Once I refine it, I may make that spreadsheet available. I'm struggling just to automate it at the moment. VB skills are lacking a bit.
 

statsman

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Once I refine it, I may make that spreadsheet available. I'm struggling just to automate it at the moment. VB skills are lacking a bit.
VB's a bastard.
 

statsman

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Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 

midlander12

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The defeated FF and FG candidates were both 2000 adrift of SF in 2016 when FG were eliminated. FG were on 28% last time but if they can push this up near their 2011 vote of 36% they should get into second and third place in the first count. I think Sherlock will hold on and FF easily have enough for 1 seat but not 2. SF are very vulnerable here - they have already lost a TD here to internal bickering and their vote was actually down 1% in 2016. FG 2, FF 1, Lab 1
 

Rocket Man

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As mentioned by a previous poster, geography is crucial here.

The 2/2 North/South split has been a feature at all general elections in the constituency.

Stanton (FG, South) and O'Keeffe (FF, North) are safe.

Both Sherlock and Buckley are potentially vulnerable, however it is difficult to see where the challenge will come from.

FG will want a second but, while a decent enough candidate, Pa O'Driscoll based in Fermoy is unlikely to be strong enough to dislodge Sherlock with his strong Mallow base.

As yet, there is no significant candidate to pose any threat to Buckley in the South.
 

statsman

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The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

locke

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As mentioned by a previous poster, geography is crucial here.

The 2/2 North/South split has been a feature at all general elections in the constituency.
In fact, we can go further than that and say that since the constituency was founded, Midleton has always elected a TD and frequently has had two (as at the moment). The only election where Mallow failed to return a TD was November 1982, with two elected from Mallow in 1981 and 2011.

As Sherlock has no credible challengers from Mallow (I would assume that Barry and Bradford are busted flushes at this point), it's hard to see who is going to unseat him.
 

locke

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And the reason Midleton so frequently returns two is because there are three similar-sized towns in the south - Youghal, Midleton and Cobh. If the local candidate gets eliminated Youghal and Cobh geographic votes will migrate to Midleton as the next best option.
 
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