Cork East: call the next GE results

MOSS1

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Feb 14, 2016
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Is there any chance Mary Linehan-Foley might be in the mix here?

On the expectation it will return the same 2-2 north/south split as it normally does and on the basis Deputies Sherlock and O'keeffe will be returned this would rule out a 2nd FG seat. Their candidate Pa O'Driscoll ran in 2011 but missed out to Tom Barry, then left politics in 2014 but is now back as a GE candidate despite not running in the 2019 locals either. I think this is a long shot at best.

This leaves the 2 seats in the south. David Stanton will certainly have one of them. This leaves the SF seat which for a multitude of reasons as alluded to above is shaky. I would note however that they held on in 2014 despite some of the same problems and even with a renegade running as an independent.

If, for the reasons outlined above FG are out of the running this would leave the last seat between FF and SF. Padraig O'sullivan was meant to run for FF but he moved to Cork NC when Billy went to Europe. He has been replaced by Cllr James O'connor who at 22 is very young. Then again this is the constituency where Myra Barry retired at 30! FF though are much stronger in the north of the constituency.

A wild card then could be Mary Linehan Foley a FF gene pool independent. She got 6% last time but if she could push that up a little and split the FF and SF candidates I feel she may be more transfer friendly and that the 2nd FF could push her above SF or vice versa.

Stanton, O'keeffe and Sherlock to return. Last seat between SF, FF and independent.
 


locke

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May 2, 2007
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FF's second candidate is to be Cllr James O'Connor from Youghal.

Geographically, he's not a bad option, although Mary Linehan-Foley will impact on his vote if she runs. It's worth noting that she not only outpolled him in the LEA, but also outpolled the entire Fianna Fáil vote. Still at only 22 he is at minimum setting down a marker for the future.

Based on that, Linehan-Foley could be a very good call as a wild card. If she gets ahead of O'Connor, she would surely benefit hugely from transfers, both because of geography and gene pool. Buckley of Sinn Féin looks extremely vulnerable and as a southern candidate, she looks well placed to replace him.

What's really surprising to me is that there is no candidate in Cobh and not likely to be one, unless Labour take a huge risk on running two and put forward Cathal Rasmussen as their second candidate.
 


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