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Cork East Update


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east

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Just got confirmation that FF Councillor Mary Linehan Foley is running as an Independent in cork east. She was beaten at the convention but has been encouraged to run as an independent by FF TD Ned O'Keeffe, if only to see his rival Michael Ahern taken out. Everyone knows there is no love lost between O'Keeffe and Ahern ans as O'Keeffe will never be appointed a Minister again, he has nothing to gain by bringing Ahern in with his surplus.

While Linehan Foley won't be elected, she along with SF's Sandra Mc Lellan (9% in recent poll) could do enough damage to oust Ahern. While Ahern has a strong base in Carrigtowhil, he is not very popular in Youghal or Midleton of late. My prediction is that O'Keeffe, Bradford & Stanton for FG and Sean Sherlock for LB will now take the seats.
 

Podolski

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Cork East

An interesting one. Linehan-Foley is a member of Youghal Town Council and I think the only other Youghal candidate is Sandra McClellan (SF). (I'm assuming that the PD's aren't running Flavin who ran for them previously).

It would be silly for O'Keeffe to behind this because he's not seriously under threat, definitely not from Ahern. Surely FF want to retain two seats. If FF are behind it then it's probably to hit McClellan by introducing another Youghal based woman candidate. Personally I think it will be O'Keeffe, Sherlock with Ahern, Stanton and Bradford fighting for seats. There will be 1 Fine Gael seat but I think it will be Bradford, not Stanton. The latter will have to fight it out with Ahern.
 

kerrynorth

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east said:
Just got confirmation that FF Councillor Mary Linehan Foley is running as an Independent in cork east. She was beaten at the convention but has been encouraged to run as an independent by FF TD Ned O'Keeffe, if only to see his rival Michael Ahern taken out. Everyone knows there is no love lost between O'Keeffe and Ahern ans as O'Keeffe will never be appointed a Minister again, he has nothing to gain by bringing Ahern in with his surplus.

While Linehan Foley won't be elected, she along with SF's Sandra Mc Lellan (9% in recent poll) could do enough damage to oust Ahern. While Ahern has a strong base in Carrigtowhil, he is not very popular in Youghal or Midleton of late. My prediction is that O'Keeffe, Bradford & Stanton for FG and Sean Sherlock for LB will now take the seats.
Cork East along with North Central are the 2 constituencies I will be looking on the day to see as to how many seats FF will lose. If they lose in East it would be a very bad day probably pointing to 15+ seat loses. Not likely to happen on the basis of present opinion polls though.
 

hiding behind a poster

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kerrynorth said:
Cork East along with North Central are the 2 constituencies I will be looking on the day to see as to how many seats FF will lose. If they lose in East it would be a very bad day probably pointing to 15+ seat loses. Not likely to happen on the basis of present opinion polls though.

The Cork East poll a couple of months ago had FG taking the Labour seat, and the two FF's looking fairly solid. But FG/Labour had about 23,000 votes here last time, against 19,000 for FF - so if even a couple of thousand FF votes slipped to the Independent, they could indeed be in a spot of bother.
 

east

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O'Keeffe has no time for Ahern and is just out to cause trouble for the Junior Minister.
 

Eirenua

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Cork East

There is no doubt that Ahern is in trouble. It is very true that he is not liked in my home town, Midleton or in Youghal. A popular independent candidate will create havoc for Ahern but unfortunatly O'Keeffe's transfers will carry Aherne over the Line, again.
 

FutureTaoiseach

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kerrynorth said:
east said:
Just got confirmation that FF Councillor Mary Linehan Foley is running as an Independent in cork east. She was beaten at the convention but has been encouraged to run as an independent by FF TD Ned O'Keeffe, if only to see his rival Michael Ahern taken out. Everyone knows there is no love lost between O'Keeffe and Ahern ans as O'Keeffe will never be appointed a Minister again, he has nothing to gain by bringing Ahern in with his surplus.

While Linehan Foley won't be elected, she along with SF's Sandra Mc Lellan (9% in recent poll) could do enough damage to oust Ahern. While Ahern has a strong base in Carrigtowhil, he is not very popular in Youghal or Midleton of late. My prediction is that O'Keeffe, Bradford & Stanton for FG and Sean Sherlock for LB will now take the seats.
Cork East along with North Central are the 2 constituencies I will be looking on the day to see as to how many seats FF will lose. If they lose in East it would be a very bad day probably pointing to 15+ seat loses. Not likely to happen on the basis of present opinion polls though.
Oh dear in spite of a spate of polls discounting it and the internal civil-war within FG, the Blueshirts are still living in "FF loses 15 seats" cloud-cuckoo land. :roll:
 

Eirenua

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A 15 seat loss for FF is not impossible, but not to FG's advantage. I am undecided as to who I will be voting for but I am certain that I will not be voting for Ahern. My prediction for Cork East is:

1 O'Keeffe @26%

2 Stanton @ 23%

3 Bradford @ 19%

4 Ahern @ 15%

The transfer of O'Keeffe's surplus coupled with Linehan Foley's transfers will drag Aherne over the line against Sherlock Jnr
 

corkeastone

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Cork east

How can one predict the outcome if all the candidates are not declared. How can one reasonably assume the percentage of each candidates votes when all the votes, valid poll and quota have not been determined. I am afraid that you are being premature
 

CrockerJarman

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east said:
Just got confirmation that FF Councillor Mary Linehan Foley is running as an Independent in cork east. She was beaten at the convention but has been encouraged to run as an independent by FF TD Ned O'Keeffe, if only to see his rival Michael Ahern taken out. Everyone knows there is no love lost between O'Keeffe and Ahern ans as O'Keeffe will never be appointed a Minister again, he has nothing to gain by bringing Ahern in with his surplus.

While Linehan Foley won't be elected, she along with SF's Sandra Mc Lellan (9% in recent poll) could do enough damage to oust Ahern. While Ahern has a strong base in Carrigtowhil, he is not very popular in Youghal or Midleton of late. My prediction is that O'Keeffe, Bradford & Stanton for FG and Sean Sherlock for LB will now take the seats.
If this is true, it makes John Deasy sound like Mary Poppins.

A FF TD conniving to unseat his running mate using an "Indep" candidate as his stooge in the process.

Doubtless we won't be spared the sanctimonius bleatings of thegeneral in order to explain this one.
 

corkeastone

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cork east

Incidentally, I should declare that I am the Labour candidate and would feel that the Labour party has an excellant (and realistic) chance of retaining the seat. yours. etc. Cllr. Sean Sherlock
 

rover

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Re: Cork east

corkeastone said:
How can one predict the outcome if all the candidates are not declared
in this particular constituency all major candidates HAVE declared. the only other people who could declare are minor independents or maybe the pds and neither of them would have any impact


corkeastone said:
How can one reasonably assume the percentage of each candidates votes when all the votes, valid poll and quota have not been determined. I am afraid that you are being premature
valid poll and quota can be guesstimated based on the turnout in the last election and the growth in population since

so its not unreasonable at all to make predictions
 

Eirenua

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Re: Cork east

corkeastone said:
How can one predict the outcome if all the candidates are not declared. How can one reasonably assume the percentage of each candidates votes when all the votes, valid poll and quota have not been determined. I am afraid that you are being premature

The electorate now have a fair idea who the candidates are. Try looking at the register of electors and statistics from the last 4 GE's, simple maths. Any experienced tallyman would "reasonably assume the
percentage of each candidate".
 

Eirenua

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Re: cork east

corkeastone said:
Incidentally, I should declare that I am the Labour candidate and would feel that the Labour party has an excellant (and realistic) chance of retaining the seat. yours. etc. Cllr. Sean Sherlock
Well, Councillor Sherlock, I sincerely wish you the best of Irish, because you sure as hell are going to need it. You will have the mother of all battle's on your hands for the final seat with Michael Ahern. The elimination of Linehan-Foley and her subsequent transfers will determine the final seat, with Ahern shading it. Believe me Cllr Sherlock nothing would make me happier than to be proved wrong.
 

corkeastone

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cork east

well eirenua, thanks a million for your good wishes

just for gallery, on what basis are you estimating stanton and bradford tally/ percentage?

would sincerely love to see a more "scientific" analysis based on population shifts, change in demographics (there have been significant trends towards further urbanisation of larger towns like mallow midleton et al. with a generational drift to under 35s. That will have a significant bearing on outcome.

I contested first election for Mallow EA with poll topping 3100 votes, increasing the labour vote by 900 in mallow EA alone. working FERMOY EA to the bone presently and feel that we could up our tally considerably in that area.

also feel realistically that if trend towards young (competant) candidates is repeated this will yield a further vote dividend for us.

the recent FG poll was a joke. the analysis was skewed and spun by FG to give PB the lift he needs. would welcome your thoughts on that poll? genuinely? I state that objectively. Even if the poll is accurate it still gives me a fighting chance and the nature of my game is that we will fight very hard.

without making too many assumptions, there are a hell of a lot of "floaters" who will decide outcome? nobody can measure their potential.

I still feel genuinely that nobody can predict with certainty the outcome on this one. campaign proper has not started and that brings its own dynamic.
 

rover

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so corkeastone what do you see the outcome being?

the recent FG poll was a joke. the analysis was skewed and spun by FG to give PB the lift he needs
thats an odd thing to say. :? that poll showed a slight fall in paul bradfords vote from 2002

if the results were "skewed and spun" then surely they would have showed an improvement ??
 

padraig

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east said:
Just got confirmation that FF Councillor Mary Linehan Foley is running as an Independent in cork east. She was beaten at the convention but has been encouraged to run as an independent by FF TD Ned O'Keeffe, if only to see his rival Michael Ahern taken out. Everyone knows there is no love lost between O'Keeffe and Ahern ans as O'Keeffe will never be appointed a Minister again, he has nothing to gain by bringing Ahern in with his surplus.

While Linehan Foley won't be elected, she along with SF's Sandra Mc Lellan (9% in recent poll) could do enough damage to oust Ahern. While Ahern has a strong base in Carrigtowhil, he is not very popular in Youghal or Midleton of late. My prediction is that O'Keeffe, Bradford & Stanton for FG and Sean Sherlock for LB will now take the seats.
Do you have a link to confirm any of this ?.
 

Eirenua

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Re: cork east

corkeastone said:
well eirenua, thanks a million for your good wishes

just for gallery, on what basis are you estimating stanton and bradford tally/ percentage?

would sincerely love to see a more "scientific" analysis based on population shifts, change in demographics (there have been significant trends towards further urbanisation of larger towns like mallow midleton et al. with a generational drift to under 35s. That will have a significant bearing on outcome.

I contested first election for Mallow EA with poll topping 3100 votes, increasing the labour vote by 900 in mallow EA alone. working FERMOY EA to the bone presently and feel that we could up our tally considerably in that area.

also feel realistically that if trend towards young (competant) candidates is repeated this will yield a further vote dividend for us.

the recent FG poll was a joke. the analysis was skewed and spun by FG to give PB the lift he needs. would welcome your thoughts on that poll? genuinely? I state that objectively. Even if the poll is accurate it still gives me a fighting chance and the nature of my game is that we will fight very hard.

without making too many assumptions, there are a hell of a lot of "floaters" who will decide outcome? nobody can measure their potential.

I still feel genuinely that nobody can predict with certainty the outcome on this one. campaign proper has not started and that brings its own dynamic.
Now, now, Cllr Sherlock, no party political broadcasts. perhaps the Labour Party will conduct a poll that will prove the FG poll a joke. that would be very welcome to a "floating" voter like myself
 

corkeastone

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cork east

now now this is politics.ie and if someone posts a prediction pertaining to my chances at the next election, I reserve the right to reply and put my best foot forward in that respect.

:lol:

all the best

Sean
 

rover

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could you answer my question about the poll?

how can you say that a poll which registers a slight fall in a particular candidates vote has been "skewed and spun" to give them a boost ???
 
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