• Due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software, some users were "banned" when they tried to change their passwords at the end of February. This does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you were affected by this, please contact us.

Cork North Central ByElection

jacko

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 6, 2009
Messages
2,650
The likely runners

Tony Fitzgerald or Ken O'Flynn (FF)
Colm Burke or Julie O'Leary (FG)
Thomas Gould (SF)
John Maher (Lab)
Fiona Ryan (Solidarity/PBP)
Oliver Moran (Green)

Not easy to call - maybe Tony Fitz to win it if selected?
 


locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,160
I think Kathleen Lynch will contest for Labour rather than John Maher.

It's a tough one for Sinn Fein. They have to do well enough to not get more electoral stick. However, they know two seats are undefendable at the General Election. How hard do they try?

The by election is FF's to lose. They have two strong potential candidates in a constituency where they have traditionally done well. The O'Flynn family still think that the party owes them something.

Realistically, for FG and The Greens, they are trying to push their candidates on a constituency-wide basis in the hope they can compete in the four-seater in a General Election.
 

Apple in Eden

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 15, 2016
Messages
1,614
I think Kathleen Lynch will contest for Labour rather than John Maher.

It's a tough one for Sinn Fein. They have to do well enough to not get more electoral stick. However, they know two seats are undefendable at the General Election. How hard do they try?

The by election is FF's to lose. They have two strong potential candidates in a constituency where they have traditionally done well. The O'Flynn family still think that the party owes them something.

Realistically, for FG and The Greens, they are trying to push their candidates on a constituency-wide basis in the hope they can compete in the four-seater in a General Election.
I know little or nothing about this constituency but agree FF should prevail if the bye election ever takes place that is.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,160
Also worth mentioning is that there are rumours that there may be a double by election if we get that far. Dara Murphy is effectively an absentee TD and it could be a good time to get a replacement in place.

FG won't win a by election, but they have a very decent chance of taking one of two.

However, I think in the event of a double-by election it may be more likely to be the FF candidate and Lynch. Lynch is still personally quite popular and there's an element of sympathy for her, so as long as transfers got her above FG, she would get elected.
 

bells of shando

Active member
Joined
May 1, 2019
Messages
203
The likely runners

Tony Fitzgerald or Ken O'Flynn (FF)

Colm Burke or Julie O'Leary (FG)

Thomas Gould (SF)

John Maher (Lab)

Fiona Ryan (Solidarity/PBP)

Oliver Moran (Green)


My ballot paper will be marked, 'NONE OF THE ABOVE'.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,160
Wouldn't vote FF in a fit but I think that Tony Fitz is an immensely likeable man.
He's certainly a lot more transfer-friendly than O'Flynn.

If I was voting on the other side of the city, he would probably end up around 4th on the ballot paper for a by-election.

O'Flynn would go just above the complete loopers.

O'Flynn may get a higher first preference though. His dog-whistling over Travelers would attract support from many of those who live around Spring Lane/Ellis's Yard
 

PL2015

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 26, 2015
Messages
686
Continuing my look at the upcoming by-elections, Cork North-Central appears to be one of the easier ones to predict after Billy Kelleher of Fianna Fáil's election to the European Parliament. Also, the mentions of a double by-election may be unlikely but would certainly make things interesting

Fianna Fáil :
Fianna Fáil have two clear candidates in the form of Ken O'Flynn and Tony Fitzgerald who topped both of the North City LEAs. Kelleher secured 27.9% of the vote in 2016 which puts them in a good position to hold the seat here however they only elected one other councillor between the two areas.

Fine Gael :
This may prove to be a tough by-election for Fine Gael as they have no obvious candidate standing out. They won 17.8% of the FPV in 2016 when Dara Murphy was re-elected. However, his running mate Julie O'Leary failed to get elected in the recent local elections which effectively rules her out. They won one seat in each LEA so I would presume either Joe Kavanagh or Damian Boylan would be their candidate but I wouldn't rate their chances of winning too highly.

Sinn Féin :
Sinn Féin will be hoping for a good result here as this is the constituency of sitting TD Jonathan O'Brien and this was a very strong constituency for SF when they polled 19.6% of the FPV between O'Brien and his running mate, Thomas Gould who was re-elected in the City North-West LEA where Kenneth Collins also got elected for SF but no candidates got elected in North East. Gould would be the presumptive candidate and he should perform well but I can't see him challenging the FF seat.

Labour :
This used to be a strong Labour constituency with Kathleen Lynch at the forefront and they polled 26.4% of the vote in 2011 before it collapsed to 7.3% and Lynch lost her seat. John Maher was the only councillor elected in the Local Elections but I could see Kathleen Lynch potentially making a comeback either as there may be a Labour seat at the next general election.

Solidarity-PBP :
This is an important by-election for Solidarity-PBP as this is sitting TD Mick Barry's constituency and they will want to see how the party's support is holding up in the constituency. Barry won 15.7% of the FPV and they do have a decent candidate here in the form of Fiona Ryan who held on to her council seat in the North-West LEA.

Green Party :
The Greens made a big breakthrough here in the Local Elections when Oliver Moran got elected and he will likely contest the by-election here. He won 3.3% of the vote and that will surely increase next time out but a general election would be his best hope.

Workers Party :
Ted Tynan remains as the Workers Party only elected official and he will presumably contest this by-election. He's contested each election since 2002 and he had his best result in 2016 so no reason why he can't increase his vote.

Independents :
Only one Independent was elected between the two LEAs, Ger Keohane who while polling well wouldn't challenge in a by-election.


Predictions :
Fianna Fail's to lose really, but Fine Gael, Labour, Sinn Féin and Solidarity-PBP will all be testing this as how likely to can retain or win a seat in the next general election.
 

jacko

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 6, 2009
Messages
2,650
Continuing my look at the upcoming by-elections, Cork North-Central appears to be one of the easier ones to predict after Billy Kelleher of Fianna Fáil's election to the European Parliament. Also, the mentions of a double by-election may be unlikely but would certainly make things interesting

Fianna Fáil :
Fianna Fáil have two clear candidates in the form of Ken O'Flynn and Tony Fitzgerald who topped both of the North City LEAs. Kelleher secured 27.9% of the vote in 2016 which puts them in a good position to hold the seat here however they only elected one other councillor between the two areas.

Fine Gael :
This may prove to be a tough by-election for Fine Gael as they have no obvious candidate standing out. They won 17.8% of the FPV in 2016 when Dara Murphy was re-elected. However, his running mate Julie O'Leary failed to get elected in the recent local elections which effectively rules her out. They won one seat in each LEA so I would presume either Joe Kavanagh or Damian Boylan would be their candidate but I wouldn't rate their chances of winning too highly.

Sinn Féin :
Sinn Féin will be hoping for a good result here as this is the constituency of sitting TD Jonathan O'Brien and this was a very strong constituency for SF when they polled 19.6% of the FPV between O'Brien and his running mate, Thomas Gould who was re-elected in the City North-West LEA where Kenneth Collins also got elected for SF but no candidates got elected in North East. Gould would be the presumptive candidate and he should perform well but I can't see him challenging the FF seat.

Labour :
This used to be a strong Labour constituency with Kathleen Lynch at the forefront and they polled 26.4% of the vote in 2011 before it collapsed to 7.3% and Lynch lost her seat. John Maher was the only councillor elected in the Local Elections but I could see Kathleen Lynch potentially making a comeback either as there may be a Labour seat at the next general election.

Solidarity-PBP :
This is an important by-election for Solidarity-PBP as this is sitting TD Mick Barry's constituency and they will want to see how the party's support is holding up in the constituency. Barry won 15.7% of the FPV and they do have a decent candidate here in the form of Fiona Ryan who held on to her council seat in the North-West LEA.

Green Party :
The Greens made a big breakthrough here in the Local Elections when Oliver Moran got elected and he will likely contest the by-election here. He won 3.3% of the vote and that will surely increase next time out but a general election would be his best hope.

Workers Party :
Ted Tynan remains as the Workers Party only elected official and he will presumably contest this by-election. He's contested each election since 2002 and he had his best result in 2016 so no reason why he can't increase his vote.

Independents :
Only one Independent was elected between the two LEAs, Ger Keohane who while polling well wouldn't challenge in a by-election.


Predictions :
Fianna Fail's to lose really, but Fine Gael, Labour, Sinn Féin and Solidarity-PBP will all be testing this as how likely to can retain or win a seat in the next general election.
How can you suggest that Kavanagh or Boylan would be the FG candidate

Colm Burke is already the selected candidate for the next general election having won the convention by a huge margin
 

PL2015

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 26, 2015
Messages
686
How can you suggest that Kavanagh or Boylan would be the FG candidate

Colm Burke is already the selected candidate for the next general election having won the convention by a huge margin
Sorry I was unaware that Senator Colm Burke had been selected as the Fine Gael candidate for the next general election so I was just basing it off what I did know.

Burke running in the by-election may be very useful for Fine Gael as it effectively serves as a test run for the General Election where he can build his profile but if it goes badly then it'll be interesting to see if they reconsider their strategy.
 

lff12

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 24, 2004
Messages
356
He's certainly a lot more transfer-friendly than O'Flynn.

If I was voting on the other side of the city, he would probably end up around 4th on the ballot paper for a by-election.

O'Flynn would go just above the complete loopers.

O'Flynn may get a higher first preference though. His dog-whistling over Travelers would attract support from many of those who live around Spring Lane/Ellis's Yard
Its 9 years since I lived there but would be surprised if Labour didn't take the opportunity to run Lynch. She was a popular local player in her day.
O'Flynn is a bit of a divisive figure - would think Fitz would be better.
As for FG, its a very weak constituency for them so cannot see them taking a seat until they are out of government (although O'Leary is infinistmally better than that tool, Murphy, just needs more time and less hostile environment to win a seat).
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top