Cork North Central: Call the next GE Results

Casablanca

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CNC is a 4 seater presently held by:

Billy Kelliher (FF)
Mick Barry (AAA-PBP)
Jonathan O'Brien (SF)
Dara Murphy (FG) - Retiring.

This constituency comprises both poor and rich areas of the city and a substantial rural hinterland as well. Even though the sitting FG TD (Murphy) is retiring there's a safe FG seat there with Sen Colm Burke likely to be the successful of 2 candidates.

FF's Billy Kelliher topped the poll on 2016 and had 1.4 of a quota. With a running mate of the sitting Mayor, Tony Fitzgerald, they'll be aiming for a second seat in what is Jack Lynch's old heartland. Getting Billy to split the vote will be a test of headquarters though.

SF have a safe seat, although it might not necessarily be O'Brien. A change of personal to his possible running mate Cllr Mick Nugent (should SF decide to run a second candidate) should not be ruled out. There was a time when SF would have thought of getting 2 seats here, but that's very unlikely now.

Mick Barry took Kathleen Lynch's long held Labour seat in 2016 on the back of his leading the Water Charges campaign in the area. There has always been a Left seat in CNC with Labour, The Workers Party and Labour again returning a representative. However, the Barry seat is considered weak in the area as his main platform (water charges) is now gone and a perception that he's not looking after the grassroots. Lynch is running again but I can't see her making a comeback.

Prediction:

Kelliher (FF)
O'Brien (SF)
Burke (FG)

with Barry, the 2nd FF candidate and, possible Lynch (Lab) fighting for the last one.
 
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statsman

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CNC is a 4 seater presently held by:

Billy Kelliher (FF)
Mick Barry (AAA-PBP)
Jonathan O'Brien (SF)
Dara Murphy (FG) - Retiring.

This constituency comprises both poor and rich areas of the city and a substantial rural hinterland as well. Even though the sitting FG TD (Murphy) is retiring there's a safe FG seat there with the son of a former TD, Sen Colm Burke likely to be the successful of 2 candidates.

FF's Billy Kelliher topped the poll on 2016 and had 1.4 of a quota. With a running mate of the sitting Mayor, Tony Fitzgerald, they'll be aiming for a second seat in what is Jack Lynch's old heartland. Getting Billy to split the vote will be a test of headquarters though.

SF have a safe seat, although it might not necessarily be O'Brien. A change of personal to his possible running mate Cllr Mick Nugent (should SF decide to run a second candidate) should not be ruled out. There was a time when SF would have thought of getting 2 seats here, but that's very unlikely now.

Mick Barry took Kathleen Lynch's long held Labour seat in 2016 on the back of his leading the Water Charges campaign in the area. There has always been a Left seat in CNC with Labour, The Workers Party and Labour again returning a representative. However, the Barry seat is considered weak in the area as his main platform (water charges) is now gone and a perception that he's not looking after the grassroots. Lynch is running again but I can't see her making a comeback.

Prediction:

Kelliher (FF)
O'Brien (SF)
Burke (FG)

with Barry, the 2nd FF candidate and, possible Lynch (Lab) fighting for the last one.
I think it's hard to see Barry holding on.
 

Casablanca

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Since writing the OP, I spoke to a community activist in the area and mentioned the Barry issue. She said that she couldn't see CNC not returning a left candidate but wouldn't be surprised if it was Kathleen Lynch based on her work in the Northside over the decades. However if the election doesn't come for 3 years and Barry tends to his backyard, she reckons the seat is his to lose.

I'm inclined to say 2FF 1FG 1SF
 

cricket

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Colm Burke, FG, is from Inniscarra and is not related, as far as I know, to the late FG TD, Liam Burke, who was from the White's Cross/Glanmire area.
 

Casablanca

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Colm Burke, FG, is from Inniscarra and is not related, as far as I know, to the late FG TD, Liam Burke, who was from the White's Cross/Glanmire area.
You're quite right, and indeed, Colm is more closely associated with the former TD Bernard Allen than with Liam Burke. I've edited the OP.

Thanks,
C
 

locke

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There's only two certainties

1) Kelliher will be elected if he runs (there have been rumours of him standing for Europe)
2) Sinn Féin will win a seat

For Sinn Féin, O'Brien could be vulnerable to a party colleague from the North-East of the city or Glanmire, so it depends who they run. I can't see them winning two

I'm not sure Colm Burke sets the world alight for FG. Julie O'Leary did well enough last time out and looks like being the only candidate based south of the river. I think O'Leary may be the better placed FG candidate.

FG were shy of a full quota last time out and Kathleen Lynch will be much more transfer-friendly this time round. I could see her pipping FG for a seat.

Mick Barry has been good on the ground and I think he will have done enough to get elected.

So 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 Soc and either FG or Lab for the last.

One other thing to call out is that Oliver Moran of The Greens is a seriously active and impressive politician. It's an election too early for him, but I can see him getting on the city council next year and being a contender in the election after next.
 

ruserious

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Heard Noel O'Flynn's son, phantom of the opera himself, Ken O'Flynn is agitating to be on the FF ticket.
 

locke

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FF are running two.

Assuming Kelliher doesn't go to Europe, it will be him plus O'Flynn or Tony Fitzgerald.

There was talk of John Sheehan going for it, but he doesn't seem to want it.

I'd say FF top brass will be looking at Fitzgerald, who is quite capable and likeable, rather than someone who would threaten to be FF's John Deasy.

Fitzgerald getting a nomination could be bad news for Jonathan O'Brien if he did get into a battle with someone else in his party
 

cricket

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Heard Noel O'Flynn's son, phantom of the opera himself, Ken O'Flynn is agitating to be on the FF ticket.
I've posted about that for quite a while. His facebook page has scenes of him visiting around much of the constituency, well outside of his councillor's ward. If FF doesn't give him the nod, I expect him to stand as an independent. A well-placed FF source tells me there may be a development in another area outside of politics involving him shortly.
 

statsman

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So, a bit wide open? 1 FF, 1 SF, two up for grabs?
 

locke

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The SF seat is the only guarantee.

The FF seat is Kelliher's seat and should he end up in Brussels/Strasbourg, there's no guarantee that FF would not get caught up in the dogfight.

Personally, I don't think he'll be on the Euro ticket, but it has been mentioned locally a lot of times. It will depend on how FF treat Crowley (Do they tolerate his non-attendance? Do they tolerate his refusal to sit with ALDE? Will he decide to run himself?); without Crowley, they would need a big hitter from the Cork area if they want to have a possibility of two seats.
 

Phoenix_Rising

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There's only two certainties

1) Kelliher will be elected if he runs (there have been rumours of him standing for Europe)
2) Sinn Féin will win a seat

For Sinn Féin, O'Brien could be vulnerable to a party colleague from the North-East of the city or Glanmire, so it depends who they run. I can't see them winning two

I'm not sure Colm Burke sets the world alight for FG. Julie O'Leary did well enough last time out and looks like being the only candidate based south of the river. I think O'Leary may be the better placed FG candidate.

FG were shy of a full quota last time out and Kathleen Lynch will be much more transfer-friendly this time round. I could see her pipping FG for a seat.

Mick Barry has been good on the ground and I think he will have done enough to get elected.

So 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 Soc and either FG or Lab for the last.

One other thing to call out is that Oliver Moran of The Greens is a seriously active and impressive politician. It's an election too early for him, but I can see him getting on the city council next year and being a contender in the election after next.
O'Brien has already been selected at convention and if a 2nd candidate is to be added it must be female according to their party rules. SF doesn't have any female Cllrs so it will be an unknown candidate.

Gould ran the last time out with O'Brien and while Gould is seen as a very active Cllr and features in the local media strongly with good GAA connections he still only polled 50% of what O'Brien polled so there is no danger of a 2nd SF candidate finishing anywhere near O'Brien
 

locke

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O'Brien has already been selected at convention and if a 2nd candidate is to be added it must be female according to their party rules. SF doesn't have any female Cllrs so it will be an unknown candidate.

Gould ran the last time out with O'Brien and while Gould is seen as a very active Cllr and features in the local media strongly with good GAA connections he still only polled 50% of what O'Brien polled so there is no danger of a 2nd SF candidate finishing anywhere near O'Brien
In that case, the small possibility of a second SF seat goes out the window. Not only is there no prominent Sinn Fein female representative, but there isn't a suitable Independent to be approached.

Gould's base in Gurranabraher, was geographically too close to O'Brien's in Knocknaheeny/Fair Hill last time out. Sinn Fein needed to add some votes for a local candidate to top up party and personal support. At the time, it seemed to me that Ger Keohane would have been a better option to target votes around the Glanmire area, but as he left the party because he didn't get the nomination, it may have been a bullet dodged.
 

ruserious

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In that case, the small possibility of a second SF seat goes out the window. Not only is there no prominent Sinn Fein female representative, but there isn't a suitable Independent to be approached.

Gould's base in Gurranabraher, was geographically too close to O'Brien's in Knocknaheeny/Fair Hill last time out. Sinn Fein needed to add some votes for a local candidate to top up party and personal support. At the time, it seemed to me that Ger Keohane would have been a better option to target votes around the Glanmire area, but as he left the party because he didn't get the nomination, it may have been a bullet dodged.
You’re discounting the possibility that Gould may soon identify as gender fluid.
 


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